Finance Vigilante

Not the hero fintweet deserves but sure as shit the one it needs

[Ulysses @ulyssescapital]

On @GavinSBaker point about memory LTAs enforceability: $GOOG went from $149bn of purchase commitments at FY, to $332bn in Q1 and $811bn in Q2 (!!). Interestingly, the fine print changed form "mostly related to technical infrastructure and inventory orders" in the 25' 10K to

[Finance Vigilante @valueskeptic]

@AC_newtothis @LibertyRPF @benthompson A merger could make a lot of sense given Microsoft’s ambition to own at home entertainment. Ultimately merging Gamepass with Netflix would create a streaming juggernaut spanning active and passive entertainment. Especially with the next gen of video games becoming consoleless

[Finance Vigilante @valueskeptic]

@nicktudor100 Miss mostly driven by higher than expected tax rate (need clarity on this), otherwise in line. I get it’s not growing as fast as Alpha or Equals but the valuation disconnect is huge, especially ahead of the launch in Australia in H1..

[Finance Vigilante @valueskeptic]

@puppyeh1 Add to that the huge mismatch between sell-in and sell-out going on for the last 4Qs - they spin it as inventory replenishment, I call it inventory liquidation in the making

[Finance Vigilante @valueskeptic]

@ecommerceshares Argentex (AGFX-LN), London listed corporate FX broker. Should grow 20%+ for the next several years & is yours for only 13x earnings. Will hugely benefit from économies reopening as its client base goes back to historical sales (and therefore hedging need) levels.

[Finance Vigilante @valueskeptic]

@marketplunger1 @altcap Bit misleading. you’re paying 2.7% + dilution from the 19.5% of B share they got for a grand total of... $25k

[Finance Vigilante @valueskeptic]

@_inpractise Check out Litigation Capital Management, AIM listed. Same biz but higher quality imo, they use cash accounting and are in the process of upsizing their current fund and launching many other in the coming years. Management owns a big chunk of the company.

[Finance Vigilante @valueskeptic]

@jbathgate @FlutterPLC used to have some pretty hilarious ones back when it was named PaddyPower - totally reflected their controversial/irreverent marketing approach: https://t.co/4rvXVK1yND

[Finance Vigilante @valueskeptic]

@stocks102 Interesting. What makes you confident about growth? I agree the market is underpenetrated but from 2016 to 2019, sales organically grew by 1.0m, 2.8m, 1.4m and 7.4m. Reaching 60m rev in 2025 would require c.7-8m yearly incremental growth (with reduced sales force headcount)

[Finance Vigilante @valueskeptic]

@puppyeh1 Indeed, your tweet mentioning it was hidden ! You would think that a $56bn “tech” company could afford better UX developers ;)

[Finance Vigilante @valueskeptic]

@puppyeh1 And at these levels you get free optionality on Clintons and/or Paperchase shutting down / downsizing their store footprint (both are in administration atm), which would benefit stores like for likes (and the bottom line given the operating leverage!)

[Finance Vigilante @valueskeptic]

@puppyeh1 But your point still holds, bet365 has the most advanced tech stack + makes most of its money in *caugh* Asia/China *caugh* where they don’t pay taxes - hence its 88% gross margin. Yet it “only” make mid30% EBITDA margins - no way DKNG makes 30% with a gross margin of 58%

[Finance Vigilante @valueskeptic]

@puppyeh1 100% agree with your comments on Draftkings, however bet365 headline numbers are misleading as they pay the exec team an eye watering £400m per year (ceo is paid £276m). Replace this with a normalized 50m/y package and the margin gets closer to 35%.

[Finance Vigilante @valueskeptic]

@Betopke @jitsegroen @SecretCapital_ How’s that? How much you pay for tv, Google ads or affiliates determines the level of new customer you acquire in a period, they don’t appear out of nowhere. New customer are a derivative of acquisition costs, not the other way around.

[Finance Vigilante @valueskeptic]

@jitsegroen @SecretCapital_ What about customers’ acquisition costs? In the end this is what will drive the returns on capital employed to acquire these customers.

[Finance Vigilante @valueskeptic]

@marketplunger1 The key question is whether 2020 sales are sustainable since physical shops were closed for most of the key events (Christmas, Easter events etc..). There’s an important experiential component in touching/comparing greeting cards that is not going to go anywhere post covid.

[Finance Vigilante @valueskeptic]

@IntrospectCap @AltaFoxCapital He’s great. It would be fascinating to go further and apply his algorithm to the stock universe 10/20/30 years ago and study the companies that screened the best but didn’t make it to multi-bagger status. Silent evidence is often an overlooked learning opportunity.

[Finance Vigilante @valueskeptic]

@michaeljburry

[Finance Vigilante @valueskeptic]

@NonGaap How to announce an upcoming kitchen-sinking while not announcing it 101

[Finance Vigilante @valueskeptic]

@_inpractise How does he plan on retaining the customers that joined this year under Covid? Do they exhibit the same behavior than older cohorts? It looks like there’s been a huge pull forward of demand for Naked’s service this year that might end up in a revenue cliff next year.