VAM-X

A Japanese crypto trader. Reacting to Macroeconomics and Geopolitical Risks. I wish you good luck. Just enjoy the volatility.

[ロイター @ReutersJapan]

ＥＵ、対ロ制裁7日間延長、6カ月更新で合意できず＝議長国 https://t.co/KqHJqEbiep https://t.co/KqHJqEbiep

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

OPENAI BUYS STARTUP DEVELOPING SMARTPHONE CAMERA CALLED GLASS IMAGING, VALUED ABOVE $300 MILLION IN DEAL - WSJ

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent @SecScottBessent]

I’ve said many times that the CLARITY Act is essential to ensuring America wins the global race for new technology. That’s the reason Congress passed the GENIUS Act: to ensure that stablecoin infrastructure, a revolutionary financial technology, will be built in America.

Ensuring that America’s community bank sector continues to thrive has been a constant focus of mine since day one. And the administration’s dual focus on enabling new digital technology to flourish and appropriately tailoring community bank regulation is key to both sectors driving U.S. economic growth together over the next several decades.

The final draft of the CLARITY Act furthers this mission. It gives the Secretary of the Treasury additional authority to act if the facts around deposit flight change to the detriment of community banks. If stablecoins cause harm to community banks, I will not hesitate to use these tools to ensure they remain fully protected. Community banks are essential to U.S. economic performance and Main Street growth. Economic security is national security, and community banks play a major role in this principle.

[Ultimae @Ultimae_Crypto]

クラリティ法案

[Eleanor Terrett @EleanorTerrett]

🚨NEW: Eight banking trade groups say the deposit flight “circuit breaker” added to the new Clarity Act text is “not a safeguard at all,” arguing it would only kick in after substantial deposit flight had already occurred.

In a letter to Senate leaders, the groups call for further tightening of the stablecoin rewards language to close what they describe as loopholes that could still allow interest-like payments on stablecoin balances. Their core ask remains essentially unchanged.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

🇺🇸 DEMS TAKE THE LEAD IN THE RACE FOR SENATE CONTROL

Kalshi now puts Democrats at 51% vs. Republicans at 49%, as the battle for the Senate remains a true toss-up heading into November.
https://t.co/D1o3O0u6JK

[amit @amitisinvesting]

JD VANCE: "I feel a little bit weird about the fact that you have so many frontier AI tech companies kind of coming to the government and begging the government to regulate them. It feels a little bit to me like a bit of a trojan horse."

It is very, very weird that all the frontier lab leaders over a weekend decided to come together, agree, and now ask the government for regulation.

[SAKANE @SakaneBTC]

暗号資産推進派の間で、法案におけるBRCA（ブロックチェーン規制明確化条項）の修正に対する懸念が広がっています。
【⚡️クラリティ法案】

✅ 前回版
「利用者の資金を直接管理・移動できないソフト開発者は送金業者に該当しない」と明確にし、無免許送金業として刑事訴追を受けるリスクを防いでいました。

✅ 最新版
「送金業者としての登録や銀行水準のAML規制は免除する」という保護は残ったものの、「刑事訴追の免責保護」が削られました。

📌 要するに、行政上の規制からは除外された一方、刑事責任を問われる余地が生まれました。

[Jelle @CryptoJelleNL]

$ONDO is still building the foundations for the next bull market.

Clear accumulation range in the first half of the year, and it's been building pressure ever since.

Expecting the RWA narrative to do well this coming bull.

Bags packed, patience game until it plays out.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Iranian state media rejects President Trump's claims that Iran eager for a deal to end the war.

This comes just 40 minutes after President Trump said that Iran was looking to reach an agreement "quickly and baldly."

US oil prices are now trading near $103/barrel.

[SAKANE @SakaneBTC]

クラリティ法案 投票前最終版評価
【⚡️クラリティ法案】

この最終案の倫理条項は共和党ティリス・民主党ガレゴ案のほぼすべてを反映し、州司法長官に執行上の役割を与えるものだと説明しています。

CNBCによると、ホワイトハウスは、この投票を通過した場合に限って倫理条項などでさらに譲歩する用意があるとにおわせています。

ChatGPTとClaudeそれぞれに民主党の要望がどれだけ反映されているかを評価してもらいました。

この点数で、更なる譲歩の余地がある。

どうする民主党！？

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

NVIDIA, Palantir and Booz Allen Hamilton will limit use of ANTHROPIC models

[Cointelegraph @Cointelegraph]

Big week ahead for stocks and crypto 👀

Monday 🇺🇸
Markets reopen after AI leaders call for slower development.

Tuesday 🇺🇸
CLARITY Act procedural vote in the Senate.

Wednesday 🇺🇸
Fed interest rate decision.

Thursday 🇬🇧
Bank of England interest rate decision.

Friday 🇯🇵🇺🇸
Japan’s CPI report, BOJ interest rate decision and quarterly U.S. options expiration.

Which event will move markets the most?

[SpotGamma @spotgamma]

Loss of confidence?

3 month SPX call skews have come off highs as Iran worsens and a cloud comes over AI.

[amit @amitisinvesting]

GOOD MORNING & WELCOME TO FOMC DECISION WEEK.

In addition to a potential rate hike, the fears over the weekend caused by Dario’s essay have led to a long software/short semis premarket.

Nvidia, Marvell, Sandisk, AMD, Nebius, Micron, CoreWeave, Intel are all red from 3-7%.

Palantir, Atlassian, Crowdstrike, Service Now, Adobe, Intuit are all green from 2-5%.

Personally, I think the market is having a knee jerk reaction to the headlines over the weekend.

In the past 24 hours, Anthropic themselves have signed multiple new compute deals (one with Rumble for $14B yesterday) and are preparing for their IPO by officially picking the Nasdaq as their exchange. In the face of all the “pace the frontier” slowdown news, the company creating that news is not slowing down their compute obligations.

So why is the market reacting like this? Well, the entire AI trade is rooted in capex. Until there is more clarity on what it means to slow down model training and recursive learning, the market is assuming that means there is a closer end to the growth in capex than expected which obviously is bad for the AI names. Great for software as more money gets allocated to the application layer and great for hyperscalers since they can generate more FCF which is why those names are green premarket.

I think this fear could flip within days if not within hours, but if you match this fear with a rate hike that might be priced in but still is not good for high-beta growth (which is what the AI trade is composed of) then you start to see how the market can make sense of taking these names down further.

Jensen speaks at the All-In Summit today, he’s likely either going to completely reject Sam/Dario’s fear-inducing message by giving a more optimistic approach to think about AI or agree with it and still make the claim that compute obligations, even if not needed to train new models as fast as possible, are not slowing down.

Going to be a big week.

$NVDA $PLTR $MU $MRVL $SNDK

[Wu Blockchain @WuBlockchain]

Strategy Skips Bitcoin Buying and Uses $139M to Repurchase STRC

Strategy said it neither bought nor sold Bitcoin and made no ATM share sales between September 8 and 13. Instead, the company spent $139.3 million in cash to repurchase about 1.42 million shares of its STRC preferred stock. As of September 13, Strategy held 845,050 BTC acquired for $63.73 billion at an average price of $75,412 per BTC. Its USD Reserve and USD Cash stood at $5.10 billion and $1.30 billion, respectively.

[Eleanor Terrett @EleanorTerrett]

🚨NEWS: Senate Republicans have released new Clarity Act text featuring a revised ethics proposal agreed to by President Trump.

The text also contains changes to the sections on the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA), stablecoin yield, and the so-called “Ag title.”

Republicans are calling it their “last, best and final” offer to Democrats ahead of Tuesday’s cloture vote.

Some high-level details.👇🏼

On BRCA: The provision has been narrowed to the Bank Secrecy Act and civil enforcement. Specific language extending its protections to criminal cases, including prosecutions under Section 1960, has been removed.

On ethics: Trump has agreed to what a GOP aide describes as “80%” of the Tillis-Gallego ethics proposal including to either divest “substantial” crypto-related financial interests or place them in a blind trust. It would also allow a role for state attorneys general to enforce ethics provisions, something which the White House had previously balked at.

On yield: Added “circuit breaker” language (floated by Tillis in July) that would effectively act as a backstop by allowing federal regulators to intervene if there was evidence of widespread deposit flight from community banks to stablecoins. The federal regulator that will be the arbiter of this: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

On Ag: The updated text adds tighter guardrails around vertical integration, including affiliate trading and conflicts of interest involving digital commodity exchanges, brokers and dealers. It also clarifies that state consumer protection laws still apply and that developer protections do not create exemptions from derivatives laws or impact prediction markets.

More to come in the @CryptoAmerica_ newsletter tomorrow AM.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Buckle up for the week of the year.

9 days ago, President Trump threatened to "stop trading" with all countries that the US has a trade deficit with if the Fed does not CUT rates.

On Wednesday, the Fed will release their September interest rate decision.

Currently, markets believe the Fed will HIKE rates on Wednesday.

In other words, the market now expects Fed Chair Warsh to make the exact opposite policy decision that President Trump wants, just 3 months after he was appointed.

If the market is correct and President Trump follows through on his threat, global trade is about to take a major turn.

This move would effectively cut off trade with ~50% of all US trading partners, including Mexico, China, Taiwan, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and India.

Turn on our post notifications at @KobeissiLetter to receive real time analysis as the week progresses.

[ロイター @ReutersJapan]

米オラクル会長、最大75億ドル相当の同社株売却計画を中止 https://t.co/1MF2M1EBw7 https://t.co/1MF2M1EBw7

[日本経済新聞 電子版（日経電子版） @nikkei]

国際決済網、ブロックチェーンで24時間送金　世界17行で試験運用
https://t.co/80D23F3rP7