Varrd

From Idea to Income
Varrd is the AI-native research and validation layer for serious traders.
We post statistically valid edges everyday

[Varrd @VarrdInc]

@WSJ "Trump can you pleeeease restrict our new model so people think we're as good as Anthropic"

[Dwarkesh Patel @dwarkesh_sp]

What does the next training paradigm look like?

0:00:00 – The big research bet the labs are making
0:02:12 – Grindability is just as important as verifiability
0:06:10 – Will RLVR alone generalize?
0:08:41 – Getting the learning back to the weights
0:15:22 – Dreaming
0:17:23 – What 2027 looks like

Also on YouTube, pod feed, and Substack.

[Varrd @VarrdInc]

Edge to go long nasdaq when crude oil is down 2% or more in a day and nasdaq closes up. This happened yesterday

[Varrd @VarrdInc]

when SPY rsi drops below 30 going long $XLC with this stop tests out

[Varrd @VarrdInc]

@CSP_Trading call it 5% chance Uzbekistan wins, 85% chance Portugal wins and 10% of a draw (roughly).

EV on this bet would be (30*.1) + (-4*.85) +(15*.05) = $350.

Assuming prices shown are post-fees? Interesting strategy, how do you scan for these?

[Varrd @VarrdInc]

@bubbleboi interesting take bubble boi

[Varrd @VarrdInc]

$ARCC buy signal that tests out today

[Varrd @VarrdInc]

the last golden cross buy on $SNP and $ENQ
*50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA*
have played out exactly as their stats say so far

[Varrd @VarrdInc]

Based on price action from the 58 largest tech IPOs since 2007, there is a strong edge to SHORT the nasdaq from open to close today

[Varrd @VarrdInc]

@randgroup Data confirms. Below is avg path of the largest tech ipos in the 21st century

[Varrd @VarrdInc]

couple $MSFT buys today.

1) At least 5 of the 7 Magnificent 7 stocks are trading below their 50-day moving average ratio vs TLT (bonds)

2) Day 4 or more of consecutive lower closes on MSFT, while ADX(13) is below 20 — indicating a low-trend, choppy regime.

[Varrd @VarrdInc]

Apple WWDC day today

if you go short $AAPL at noon central (the start time) and sell two hours later, you have a 73% win rate but the results aren't good enough to be deemed statistically significant
#WWDC

[Varrd @VarrdInc]

$UAL short edge to enter open next week

[Varrd @VarrdInc]

$FCX made an all time high yesterday. when that happens it tests out to go long with this stop for 3 months

[Varrd @VarrdInc]

short $MSFT with this Apple divergence tests out for the next 20 daily bars

[Varrd @VarrdInc]

June has never marked the high in SPY for the year

[Varrd @VarrdInc]

$TSLA edge to go long based off of v shaped recovery

[Varrd @VarrdInc]

off to a very strong start

[Varrd @VarrdInc]

Edge to go long $NG natural gas futures. stop, horizon and set up included

[Varrd @VarrdInc]

Edge to go long $NG natural gas futures. stop, horizon and set up included

[Goshawk Trades @GoshawkTrades]

what happens to trading if AI keeps getting better?

Dwarkesh Patel asked Jane Street's head of technology the obvious question: if we get AGI, can't it just replace what you do?

his answer: "trading feels to me like AGI-complete."

"all of the different problems of the world end up influencing what you're doing in a trading context. trading involves figuring out what things are worth. which means making predictions about the future. and lots of different things flow into that."

in other words, to fully automate trading you'd need to fully automate understanding the entire world. every geopolitical event, every supply chain shift, every behavioral pattern, every regulatory change, it all feeds into price.

and even at a firm running tens of thousands of GPUs with sub-100-nanosecond execution: "many of your most profitable days happen when weird stuff happens and nobody knows what's going on. doing that well involves human judgment. we think humans work better than models through phase transitions."

his conclusion: "i have never been more desperate to hire more engineers and traders than i am today. everything people are doing is more valuable than it was."

so what does this mean for the rest of us?

if the most automated trading firm on earth is saying humans matter more not less. the implication is that AI doesn't shrink the opportunity in trading. it raises the bar for what each person can do. the traders who learn to use these tools will pull further ahead. the ones who don't will fall further behind.