VB4alpha

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[VB4alpha @VB4alpha]

@realroseceline Hard to disagree with all you said, but refuting emerging competitive treats (over last 5y or so) is how you build conviction in this case.

[VB4alpha @VB4alpha]

@fedex774 Isn’t CPO a tiny fraction of their revenue?

[VB4alpha @VB4alpha]

$LPK can someone show the conservative napkin math of 2bn€ in 2027?

[Paradis Labs @ParadisLabs]

$LPK is up >100% since my initial thesis:

Glass substrates are a massive supply chain bottleneck for CPO / advanced packaging.

$LPK has a quasi monopoly over equipment supply with >80% of major global players choosing their equipment for process validation.

Order volumes are set to inflect later this year.

With peak adoption coming in 2027 w/ companies like $INTC + Samsung focus more capacity there.

When all of this ramp-up starts filtering into the P&L in 2027, we'll see more institutions/retail piling in.

Especially since balance sheet is v. clean which means very minimal dilution risk along the way.

My napkin maths get the MC to ~€2B+ in 2027 via volume ramp + CPO TAM expansion. (Including some uncertainty over order values).

So still very early imo.

[VB4alpha @VB4alpha]

@MoodyWriter13 What is the terminal value of the business? The grid will catch up, one day (can be 15-20 years out)

[VB4alpha @VB4alpha]

@Mikan_Drill @rhomboid1MF @dopamine_uptake As I said he might look akward in first impression.
Would love to hear some specifics about the negative feedback

[VB4alpha @VB4alpha]

@rhomboid1MF @dopamine_uptake Stephen is a much better CEO than Mike Creedon (& fun fact: Mike Creedon is « open to work » on LinkedIn since 2y). Stephen might look somewhat akward when presenting. But he is actually smart, focused on acquiring good businesses and create SHL value which is all that matters.

[VB4alpha @VB4alpha]

@MoodyWriter13 That’s positive - is the chairman of the Stiftung playing an important role? They seem conservative according to historical cash allocation (no acquisition, no SBB, deleveraging to net cash position ex-pension). Do they see their job as creating value for shareholders?

[VB4alpha @VB4alpha]

@rhomboid1MF @dopamine_uptake You should meet him in person.

[VB4alpha @VB4alpha]

@rhomboid1MF @dopamine_uptake What do you mean exactly?

[VB4alpha @VB4alpha]

@evfcfaddict @Etnarosso1973 Are you optimistic about future earnings growth? How do you compare Intred vs Unidata?

[VB4alpha @VB4alpha]

@fedex774 [Genuinely love debating ideas] - what is your valuation framework? I see $MEMS.PA at a similar valuation than Nynomic for example (20x EBIT range), with accelerating AI-exposed business.

[VB4alpha @VB4alpha]

@MoodyWriter13 Has anyone tried to a supply-demand forecast of photonics equipment some years out?

[VB4alpha @VB4alpha]

@aleabitoreddit ?

[VB4alpha @VB4alpha]

@ToffCap What would be a reasonable estimate of EBITDA on that 1bn revenue?

[VB4alpha @VB4alpha]

@aleabitoreddit @BonyBallf2 $IQE why has been the photonics business declining until very recently?

[VB4alpha @VB4alpha]

@evfcfaddict How is ROIC trending?

[VB4alpha @VB4alpha]

@NoahEpstein_ PE

[VB4alpha @VB4alpha]

@TomSmith839 The guys shorting this don’t believe there is 900m of clean EBITDA