Vince

Think as analytically as you maturely can

[Vince @vce7]

I read it twice relating a recent paper https://t.co/bLM0xRcdZW

Thinking through both, the alarm to me is somewhere in between: what if policymakers trained on GDP as a welfare proxy respond to AI driven "stagnation" with austerity/hikes when citizens are actually flourishing?

[The Long View @HayekAndKeynes]

I had dinner with some old Bridgewater colleagues a couple weeks ago and of course we started debating nonsense and the one question that I’ve chewed on more than any other is “what is GDP and how do we measure it” - specifically what happens if AI “productivity” surges and we were able to do lots things, but there is no value ascribed to it (not measured) because the output is essentially free outside of the power used to generate it?

Interestingly, in this sense, productivity could actually collapse if you look at the number of workers vs the value of their output with AI (it won’t - workers will just do a lot more work with AI that will have lower value per task). Clearly that’s not how we intuitively think about productivity which makes me think that the measurement of GDP isn’t really capturing what we want it to - it captures value not quantity.

But then when you start to run with the idea, it challenges the basic idea that higher GDP growth is inherently good thing. Is America really better off because we spend 20% of our GDP on healthcare? Does that realistically mean we can support the same Debt:GDP even though that healthcare portion is heavily paid for by the government? Is America now worse off if a lot of value that doctors used to provide is now handled by AI (massively deflationary)?

Others have proposed things like the gross national happiness index - alongside GDP it’s clear we need some sort of index that weighs basic things such as healthcare, access to housing, educational attainment, family, structure, crime, ability to provide for oneself in retirement - some sort of average quality of life score. I’m sure someone else has already done this.

A lot of this isn’t new - there were probably similar debates during the Industrial Revolution as mass production became much easier but in a world where these metrics are more front and center I think it’s a measurement issue that will become increasingly important in the coming years. A lot of it has just been ignored during the digital revolution - email vs paper, zoom vs plane. Ultimately we need a richer data set to evaluate countries than a single GDP per capita number.

[Vince @vce7]

@TJ_Research 他那些仓位都没有moh jd甚至gme重 但short押金就不知道了

[Vince @vce7]

@frankyluan tesla眼看着就不是冲着拼行业那点现存容量去的 但就都到今天了还有少说八成司机没租/买过不带fsd的呢 改变习惯难 改变掺了审美的习惯更难啊

[Vince @vce7]

@Mr_Derivatives if we've had both up why can't we have both down 😆

[Nikita Bier @nikitabier]

One of the most important things that Elon taught me:

People engaging in fraud are always the first and loudest to complain.

[Vince @vce7]

大家都一点都没觉得 待在简中语境里本身 就和这故事一模一样吗

[Herman Jin @ShanghaoJin]

彻底伟大了

上海医院门口买杯咖啡，听到一个幼儿园小孩跟爸爸说：

“yeah～我们把美国人杀麻了”

“日本马上要被中国吞并了”

“美国马上要被中国吞并了”…

“中国是世界上最大的国家了”

有人在我推下说：雪崩没一片雪花是无辜的，所以日本老百姓支持战争活该被核？

人是环境的产物，墓园造不了大天使

[Vince @vce7]

"not sure what that means for long term" was an understatement -- gut feeling about the market right now is ominous

[Vince @vce7]

jinxed it with "hopefully" 🤣
anyway, just bought lunr
added goog tsla cpng orcl

to me the midterm bottom is coming in early without a short term correction, not sure what that means for long term but doesn't matter

[Vince @vce7]

@yacineMTB 🤔https://t.co/C6Grz99XiX

[Deedy @deedydas]

GPT 5.5 underperforms Opus 4.7 on SWE-Bench Pro. Couldn't find any reported SWE-Bench scores at all and an internal benchmark is reported instead.

That footnote is trying really hard to bury the lede. GPT 5.5 isn't SOTA for coding.

[Vince @vce7]

what if there comes a scenario where openai becomes a joke and anthropic becomes one of the few that have survived "ai capex domino" 10 years later?

[Pete Oxenham @peteoxenham]

come on man all i'm asking for is a high school level engineering print

[Vince @vce7]

@SV_IVF_Nomad 第一任期以为TDS只是个右边的调侃，现在看让他们排psycologist都能插队了更适合physiatrist

[Vince @vce7]

把TACO挂嘴边的都是只盯着单方向消息碎碎念的人，一年多来人家玩主媒跟玩孙子似的，第一任期说好媒体是敌人第二届直接跟敌人一起涮，月复一月都一年多了很多人还视而不见

[Reid Wiseman @astro_reid]

Only one chance in this lifetime…

Like watching sunset at the beach from the most foreign seat in the cosmos, I couldn’t resist a cell phone video of Earthset. You can hear the shutter on the Nikon as @Astro_Christina is hammering away on 3-shot brackets and capturing those exceptional Earthset photos through the 400mm lens. @AstroVicGlover was in window 3 watching with @Astro_Jeremy next to him.

I could barely see the Moon through the docking hatch window but the iPhone was the perfect size to catch the view…this is uncropped, uncut with 8x zoom which is quite comparable to the view of the human eye. Enjoy.

[Vince @vce7]

可是很多词并不能翻译

- 很多词
- 用英文越多越不能
- 越理解中文越不能

[Bear Liu @bearliu]

我开始向信息的摄入速度妥协了。

以前读英文文档，死磕原文。现在直接用沉浸式翻译。

因为我发现目的是尽快、高质量地消化这些高价值信息，至于纠不纠结用英文阅读，已经没那么重要了。

配合 Readwise 使用，沉浸式翻译能很好地把中英双语内容都摘录下来。母语吸收速度更快，获取高价值信息后的结果才是重点。

某种程度上，这也符合现在 AI 与人交互的设计范式变化：UI 不是重点了，意图才是重点。

[Reddit Lies @reddit_lies]

Daily reminder that "StopAsianHate" died literally overnight when libs were forced to ask the very difficult question "Who is actually attacking Asians?" and it turned out to be almost exclusively black men.

[Vince @vce7]

@neo241091 @Mr_Derivatives then how did you see this one?

[Vince @vce7]

转出来给觉得Carney领导人天花板的人看看，真心不觉得各位用心查过这些黑历史，谁没事研究怎么打自己脸呢，而且要真把自己PhD当回事会这么耐不住跟不确定性共处

不是大家拿人的就散了吧，跟娃聊聊学校不比满世界找大大#2强

[Andy Lee @RealAndyLeeShow]

@MarkJCarney Firstly - you didn’t develop it.

The United States - that nation below ours that you keep on bashing - Federal Reserve did.

Secondly - your implementation of “forward guidance” was not well received.

https://t.co/1bJdzHPheJ

[ThePrimeagen @ThePrimeagen]

You should watch this.

It just shows how disconnected we are from the small group of people making decisions that will impact our future heavily.

These people have so much ai psychosis. If you listen to how she speaks, everything is personified, it is undoubtable she believes this is a living computational organism.

Just like how a model can hype up an individual into psychosis through reinforcement, a small group of people are giving themselves psychosis through reinforcement.

Wild times we live in

[Canada Spends @canada_spends]

Often overlooked from the equation is provincial debts.

When people say Canada's debt is "manageable compared to other G7 countries," they're only counting the federal slice. Most G7 countries don't have provinces carrying $828B in net debt.

[Vince @vce7]

@TheCinesthetic

[Vince @vce7]

昨天还在讨论AI在工业设计上什么时候落地，谁家先hit，话音未落啊

[adam @adamdotnew]

Opus 4.7 appears to be SOTA at agentic CAD design