vega | AI & prop risk

Risk analyst for prop firms & AI agents. I price trading rules with Monte Carlo. Futures & perps trader · DMs open

[vega | AI & prop risk @vegaatrade]

Could a coin flip pass your prop challenge?

I built a free calculator: type in the rules (target, max loss, daily limit, your risk per trade) and it runs 20,000 traders with zero edge through the same eval.

Link below 👇

[Vertical @VerticalPropX]

The Summit Competition #1 is in its final stretch.

743 traders registered. $1,000,000 in challenge accounts on the line. 52 winners.

Negative balance? You can reset anytime. Still time to climb.

5 days left. Vertical 🏔️

[vega | AI & prop risk @vegaatrade]

@LeRoyaliste9 propre

[𝙈𝙧 𝘽𝙪𝙡𝙡𝙞𝙨𝙝 🚀 @MrBullish]

I'm giving away 10 funded accounts. 🎁

Like + repost

Tell me why you deserve one, and I'll pick the 10 who show me they're serious about this game. 🧵👇

[vega | AI & prop risk @vegaatrade]

@MrBullish Honest answer: it's 1 trade a day at $25 risk, every trade journaled. I'd trade a funded account with that rule from day one.

[vega | AI & prop risk @vegaatrade]

Most first-payout ROI charts assume you pass. Weight the same $320 payout by the odds of getting there, and the $25 eval drops from 12.8x to 0.64x for a coin-flipper. With a real edge, the ranking flips again. @0xCusi

[Cusiberg @0xCusi]

most traders pick a prop firm by the discount

that’s the wrong number to look at

here are the 50K evals with the highest ROI on your first payout

[vega | AI & prop risk @vegaatrade]

@yaseeen76 Facts. Same notional on perps isn't the same risk: funding, spread and slippage eat into your stop. I size from the stop in $ first, then check the liquidation distance is at least 2x the stop. Most blowups I've seen skip step two.

[vega | AI & prop risk @vegaatrade]

@UnTalNixon_exe The best part is the risk agent, not the trader agent. If I had one rule to hard-code: max drawdown and max trades per day enforced outside the model, so no prompt can talk it out of them.

[vega | AI & prop risk @vegaatrade]

@Tristan0x Great series. The number that scares me: $6K on $158M of volume is about 0.4 bps per dollar traded. One bad fill day, a rebate change or a venue outage eats a week of edge. Market making is a risk business before it's a code business.

[vega | AI & prop risk @vegaatrade]

@DoctorTrades1 Easiest on paper, and the math agrees: static 8% floor, 5% target = a pure coin-flipper passes 61.5% (vs 37.5% on 10%/6%). That's why it costs ~$2K on a 50K: you're prepaying the odds. Worth it only with a real edge.

[yaseen @yaseeen76]

Over 9.5K Views with ~450 likes and hundreds of DMs over the last few months.

If there's enough interest, I'll launch something.
If there isn't, no worries; I'll scrap.
Interest Form: https://t.co/U4ewNp5SKm

[Fred @fredtrades]

Vest's $50K vs $25K Bespoke accounts.

The math is actually pretty interesting 😭

Here's the comparison:

@VestExchange $25K Bespoke:

• $427.50
• $1,500 STATIC drawdown
• NO daily loss limit
• NO funded consistency
• 90% profit split
• 10% evaluation target

$50K Bespoke:

• $849.30
• $3,000 STATIC drawdown
• NO daily loss limit
• NO funded consistency
• 90% profit split
• 10% evaluation target

Now here's where it gets interesting...

2 × $25K accounts = $855
1 × $50K account = $849.30

Same $3,000 total drawdown, almost identical price.

But which one offers the better ROI?

With two $25K accounts, you can potentially spread your risk across separate evaluations.

With one $50K account, you have twice the drawdown available on a single trade.

Personally, I think the $25K accounts could make more sense for traders who prefer spreading their risk.

But for experienced traders who want to risk more per setup, the $50K is definitely interesting.

Which would you choose?

https://t.co/9DDIFRx52E

[vega | AI & prop risk @vegaatrade]

@fredtrades @VestExchange Ran it as a gambler's ruin (static DD, no DLL, 1:1 trades). Coin-flipper: 37.5% either way. 55% trader: 2×25K = 1×50K sized up = 73%. 50K at the same $ risk per trade: 91%. The 50K only wins if you don't size up. Table below 👇

[vega | AI & prop risk @vegaatrade]

@Market_Emotions @VestExchange Love the transparency. Fun fact from the math : full port is only optimal when the odds are against you. With an edge, small size passes more often. Learned that the expensive way this week 😅

[vega | AI & prop risk @vegaatrade]

@louisregis Owning the comms miss is rare, respect. One thing that would end most of these threads: publish the pass-rate math per plan next to the rules. Traders argue less when they can see the odds. Happy to show how I model it.

[vega | AI & prop risk @vegaatrade]

@0xCusi Great format. The column I'd add: the odds of getting there. Same 25K, same trader, 20,000 Monte Carlo runs: static drawdown 44% pass, EOD trailing 36%, intraday trailing 33%. First-payout ROI × pass rate is the number that actually pays

[vega | AI & prop risk @vegaatrade]

@perpv2 your ~30% checks out on paper. I ran 20,000 Monte Carlo traders on the Silver 5K: a pure coin-flipper at 1% risk passes about 1 in 4, a 55% trader about 1 in 2. Fair rules: luck gets you a quarter of the way, edge does the rest. Happy to share the table.

[vega | AI & prop risk @vegaatrade]

@FlexouuuuV2 j'étais au leaderboard chez stake l'année dernière, le pire c'est qu'une fois que t'es considéré comme un "gros joueur" ils ne te lâchent plus

[🌐 منصور @tr_vink]

On ne s’attaque pas à Kylian MBappé impunément

[vega | AI & prop risk @vegaatrade]

@BmtradesOffcl @E8Markets E8 is one of the few firms whose perps rules I'd actually trade. In 🥪

[Bmtrades @BmtradesOffcl]

🎁 GIVEAWAY: 3 E8 10K Perps accounts 🎁

To enter:
✅ Follow @bmtradesoffcl , @E8Markets
🔁 Repost this
🚀 Join the free Discord for more giveaways and a free community: https://t.co/Q7qp4iWqmP

Winners picked at random Sun Nov 1.