VG

The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty. Extreme, rigid views don't make a harmonious society

[Britain People @Britain_People]

MEET Boris Johnson

[Chris Daw KC @crimlawuk]

Write to your MP and tell him / her that you do not want Britain to leave the ECHR as it protects us against populists and demagogues.

[Politics UK @PolitlcsUK]

🚨 | QUESTION OF THE DAY: Who would you prefer as Prime Minister?

Please retweet for a larger sample size.

[Jason Furman @jasonfurman]

Put another way, the Beveridge curve shifted out a lot in the pandemic. It looked like it might be shifting back (the dots were moving straight down) but that progress has stalled.

Contractionary policy normally moves this SE, hope was that it could move it S this time.

[Republicans against Trump @RpsAgainstTrump]

Liz Cheney on Donald Trump: “He is unfit for any office.”

Retweet if you agree!

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Richard Clarida: “If financial conditions ease because markets price in [2023] cuts, a peak policy rate of 5.25% may not be sufficient to put inflation on a path to return to 2% over time.” https://t.co/kcXSYjDkXe

[Piers Morgan @piersmorgan]

Mick ‘The Grinch’ Lynch is beginning to believe his own over-hyped bullish*t. Loves being a media star, so has zero incentive to resolve the strikes as that would deprive him of the TV oxygen he craves.

[Jason Furman @jasonfurman]

The jobs report is encouraging for workers getting jobs & the economy not slipping into recession: 263K jobs added and unemployment remains 3.7%.

But discouraging for the Fed's hopes that slowing wages will make its job easier. Average hourly earnings up at a 6.8% annual rate.

[Jason Furman @jasonfurman]

You can't understate how huge this is. Last month the data showed average hourly earnings grew at a 3.8% annual rate (three month average). With revisions and one month of data this is now a 6% annual rate.

[Jason Furman @jasonfurman]

Some crypto is too good to be true promising outlandish interest rates.

Tether is too bad to be true. In the best case get 0% interest. In the worst case lose money.

All downside (including the use case, facilitating buying other even worse crypto).

https://t.co/lN5xFF1NUI

[VG @venkat_gb]

Mone & the Tories won't feel the heat, Corbyn & his son won't feel the heat. They've prospered at our expense. Politics was different when Blair & Brown were in charge - degenerates were not in control. Time for a clean sweep, we need competence & honesty - if it exists

[Gordon Brown @GordonBrown]

Britain’s poor face the worst winter in living memory.
A year ago we talked about people having to choose between heating and eating, now many can’t afford either. Basics like soap, toothpaste etc are becoming unaffordable luxuries.
And it’s only going to get worse.
[THREAD}

[Gordon Brown @GordonBrown]

From April, twice as many households (19.5m people) will spend 20% of their income on fuel.
3.8m households (9.9m people) will spend 30%.

Child poverty – already 4m – will rise inexorably

[VG @venkat_gb]

Fed is in a difficult place. Whilst 50bps is baked there could be another 25bps in February followed by a long hold. Labour market is still very tight. BoE has to defend the £ in a recession - they're in a more difficult position

[Jason Furman @jasonfurman]

The labor market eased in October as both job openings and quits fell (and unemployed rose, which we knew already).

Overall there are now 1.7 job openings for every unemployed worker--down from the peak of 2.0 in March 2022.

[VG @venkat_gb]

Time for Keir to grasp the nettle. Leaders should LEAD not follow. People should be told #BrexitHasFailed & evidence provided - there's plenty of that. Economy is shrinking & labour market is very tight.

[Chris Giles @ChrisGiles_]

Brexit and the economy: the hit has been ‘substantially negative’ via @FT

Opening part in new ⁦⁦@FinancialTimes⁩ series. This is clear now https://t.co/rrqGtyKV4B

[Andrew Sentance @asentance]

My latest article in @thetimes today. UK economy is heading for a type of recession which we haven’t seen for 30 years. What are the lessons from the past? https://t.co/YfDk2pm4BK

[VG @venkat_gb]

@jasonfurman In all probability 50bps will be the decision at the next meeting followed by 25bps in February followed by a long hold. BoE won't go beyond 4% given that the UK is already in a recession. Job data out on Friday will be interesting - FOMC will pay close attention

[VG @venkat_gb]

This makes interesting reading & if true is a welcome development. We need politicians who have substance.

[Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes]

LISTEN: David Miliband Doesn’t Rule Out Westminster Return https://t.co/JTrfoyQqdf

[VG @venkat_gb]

@richardtgarland Time for NI politicians to earn their keep. For long they've been earning for doing nothing. They need to focus on the needs of the electorate rather than their narrow interests. Wonder if there are any such politicians?

[Steven Swinford @Steven_Swinford]

Andrew Bailey says the Bank of England did not know what was going to be in Liz Truss's mini budget

'There are parts of it we had no idea what was going to be in it'

He says it was an 'extraordinary process'

[VG @venkat_gb]

@NickTimiraos 50bps in Dec followed by a 25bps - then a long pause whilst B/S bleed continues. Energy prices are weakening so respite on that front as well. BoE probably will settle at around 4% given UK is already in a recession