Victor

Breaking off pencil necks one by one

[Daan Crypto Trades @DaanCrypto]

PCE Inflation Data coming in 30 minutes! 🚨

This is the Fed's preferred way of measuring inflation. We roughly know what to expect though after the CPI & PPI readings from last month so not expecting any massive surprises.

Still good to watch this and the upcoming Nonfarm payrolls report this Friday.

Yesterday, Williams from the Fed came out and talked down the upcoming October meeting as a hike was already priced in for that. This temporarily saw a drop in bond yields and for the odds of a hike in October to move down.

[Daan Crypto Trades @DaanCrypto]

$DXY (Dollar Index) has moved down sharply since Trump's inauguration. It is now trading back at 2022 levels right before the big move up.

The lower this goes, the more it helps risk assets and vice versa.

It is currently losing some of the downside momentum and finding support so be wary in case this were to bounce a bit as it could put some pressure on risk assets.

[TheoTrader 🏰 @theo_crypto99]

$SUI

If we sell into the pocket,
I’m bidding hard.

Perfect setup forming again.

[goodalexander @goodalexander]

crypto 2017 vs present

[Infinex @infinex]

First 500 to react. Go

[Victor @vicestamos]

@infinex_app What could it be??

[Ash Davidson @AshDavidsonUK]

Plenty of LL's & LH's

Hopefully changes soon on $BTC

[Res @resdegen]

For the last 3 months, after losing a big chunk of my portfolio, I've been reflecting on this a lot.

"Sell when your portfolio reaches your target, not when you think the market has topped".

I always thought that it was counterproductive to sell based on your own personal targets because your trading exposure and behavior should be dictated by the market. Attached, you can see a post by @DegenSpartan defending this point.

If I've achieved my goals with BTC at $50k, why would I sell if I think it's going over $100k? It never made any sense to me, in the same way that if your portfolio is $870k and you want to reach $1M, you don't force it to go there simply because your goal is $1M if the market is topping. You have to accept it, and let it go.

However, that mentality is quite idealistic, or realistic only for that 0.01%. Yes, it would be perfect but reality is that you are not going to nail it. How much money have you guys roundtripped? I bet a lot of people here achieved true freedom and amounts they could only wish for some years or even months ago, to later see it vanish in weeks. Illiquid shitcoins, revenge trading, leverage... some even rode 8 figs to 0.

You won't know if the market is topping because you don't have what it takes. The reason why you made a lot of money in the first place will be the same reason why you will lose it all—you are a perma-bull most of the time and your high risk tolerance gave you huge returns in the good times, but this same behavior and constant positive reinforcement due to consistent wins will blind you and get you rekt on the bad times. Not to mention timing: bottoms take months to form, and the top occurs in days especially after exponential runs.

Apart from the exceptional traders out there, you will likely be bullish again at the moment to sell because you've made it that way. And when wrong, like *really* wrong, some people cannot even handle it. If you've achieved your goals, why don't you just save the game and start again operating from a position of calmness, abundance, and objectivity? It's literally like a video game—you don't do it in one-go without shutting down the console.

There's something you realize when you lose a lot: you start valuing what you had much more and it somehow becomes more real than some numbers on the screen.

On the other side, I don't think you can ever make it if you're the one that thinks: "I'll get to that point and then I'll stop". That mentality will never get you even close to the target because you must love the game: learning > improving > winning. Money is just how to quantify your progress. But that doesn't mean you can save levels as you reach your goals.

Sometimes the upside doesn't really change your life that much vs. the risk you are taking. You've always be lured to think it's the time to be max exposed, you'll ALWAYS have a reason to be bullish.

The vast majority of people trading these markets should simply have a methodological approach to take profits and risk management.

• Remove all-in behavior from your system. Accept you are not that elite trader. Maybe one day, not yet.

• Take money out progressively regardless of your views on the market as you win.

• Establish bigger clear goals with R:R on your own lifestyle: above a certain net worth you start taking less risks because the upside won't change your life, but the downside will certainly will (eg. $500k -> $900k doesn't change your life as much as $500k -> $100k even though the net difference of $400k is the same).

Take more money out and reduce risk at those levels you establish for yourself. Your goal is to operate from a position of abundance rather than from fear and scarcity. You'd be surprised how much objective you can become—suddenly, there's no emotions that control you anymore.

• Still manage your risk depending on the market. You can certainly be more risk-on after ETFs have been approved, when FED started to cut, Trump won, or the next time that Trump, Bessent, or Powell literally tell you to buy.

Your risk management and portfolio allocation should be a combination of (1) market-dependent and (2) personal life-dependent circumstances, not one or the other.

Most of the people only focus on (1) and inevitably never make it because it's not realistic for most.

• Love the game, focus on progress, money comes after that. In order to make it, you can't ever stop. If you want to stop, you won't ever make it.

[Arthur Hayes @CryptoHayes]

The plan:

Be fucking patient. $BTC likely bottoms around $70k. 36% correction from $110k ATH, v normal for a bull market.

Then we need stonks, $SPX and $NDX to enter free fall. Then we need TradFi muppet to go under.

THEN we get Fed, PBOC, ECB, and BOJ all easing to make their country great again.

THEN you load up the truck. Traders will try to buy the dip, if you are more risk averse wait for the central banks to ease then deploy more capital. You might not catch the bottom but you also won’t have to mentally suffer through a long period of sideways and potential unrealised losses.

[Za @ZaStocks]

DeepSeek.

I’m not buying it.

Yes, they have a great model but the cost just doesn’t add up.

You can’t even buy a beach front home in California for $6,000,000 but apparently the trustworthy CCP built a better LLM than Meta for that price.

China has a long history of lying about technological advancements so it wouldn’t surprise me if this was the latest example of the CCP trying to act like they’re ahead of the world.

Am I denying that it can probably be done for cheaper than what we’re seeing right now? No. It probably can but this is not new information.

Zuckerberg and Sundar both admitted to overspending on AI. They both agreed they’d rather overspend than underspend on this technology and it’s clear the other big tech CEOs agree.

LLM’s aren’t the final boss of AI. Having the best LLM isn’t the goal of these big tech companies, they want more. Robots, autonomous cars, AI agents, etc. there’s much bigger fish than having the best LLM. If DeepSeek has the best LLM, cool but it wasn’t done for $6,000,000. There’s Nvidia chip export restrictions limiting the amount of GPU’s China can get, there’s no shot they’d admit to the actual cost of this LLM because it wouldn’t add up with the limited technology they’re able to access (legally).

DeepSeek is cool but I don’t think it’s going to crash the American stock market. A dip? Yes. If anything I think we could get some buying opportunities if there’s any persistent selling.

I’ll bet on American technology prevailing over any other country any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

[TAOisTheKey @TaoIsTheKey]

Is anybody else feeling this way?

I’ll admit it:

I have severe PTSD from round tripping my 7-figure crypto bags back to low 6 figures last cycle. And my PTSD has only INCREASED from this bull run, which hasn’t been easy to navigate by ANY stretch of the imagination.

Every rally feels like a fake out to me. Every time my portfolio starts ripping, I’m not believing it and waiting for the next show to fall that sends my bags down 25%-40% in a heartbeat.

It takes weeks for tokens to move 100% higher and 1-2 days to completely erase those gains and send them lower than where they started at the 100% move.

Feels very much like 1 step forward, 2 steps back kind of situation.

I’m praying with every fiber of my being that this bull run isn’t finished. That BTC hasn’t topped yet. That alts still have one massive euphoric multi-month run left in them. That the FED doesn’t shit on our parade with their actions or their tone towards the economy and rates.

I’m having flashbacks of late 2021 when the fed came out and said they would start raising rates in 2022, and every dipshit “expert” crypto analyst I followed disregarded that and claimed that there would be an elongated crypto bull cycle bc “iNsTiTutIoNs & eL sAlvAdOrE aRe bUyIng nOw” so “tHis tiMe iT’s diFfEReNt!”

I keep telling myself this is Jan 2025, which is analogous to Jan 2021, and there SHOULD be a lot of bull run to go before it all goes to shit. The fed is still cutting rates at least for now. Trump comes in Jan 20th which should provide a huge boost for all risk on assets including crypto as he pushes for low rates and a weaker dollar again. And that BTC hasn’t shown much confluence of topping indicators to make the case that its topped out for this cycle.

But I don’t know if I’m telling myself a story that fits what I want to believe, or if I’m being logical. Or both. 🤷

I’ve said this to my friends and family before and I’ll say it again:

I HATE crypto bull runs. While I don’t LOVE bear markets, they are EASY to navigate once you know you’re in one. And they present incredible opportunities to research and buy projects that no one is looking at and no one cares about bc the whole world believes crypto is dead except the biggest degens like myself. Bear markets are just research, buy, hold, stake and chill.

Bull markets on the other hand are chaotic, vicious, and they make you second guess and doubt yourself at every turn.

“Am I in the right projects?”

“Shit! I missed that one and it’s up 10,000% in a month! How the fuck did I miss that?”

“Every token is ripping higher but mine. I don’t want to chase green candles but I also don’t want to miss the opportunity to be in a project that can retire me in a year”.

And then throw on top of that the tens of thousands of new projects popping up, most of which are rug pulls and scams.

Throw in crazy crashes, black swan events like Israel/iran, Covid, etc.

Throw in 8 month long dips and accumulation zones that tire you out and make you question whether you’re still in a bull run or not.

Content creators pumping this token and that token. And there’s simply not enough $ to buy them all and most of these KOLs are pieces of shit that want to dump their bags on you as exit liquidity anyway.

Bull markets are insane and so draining.

I can’t fucking wait to GTFO of this. Hopefully with life changing profits this time around. That way when I get back in during the next bear, it will just be with an amount of money that is negligible to me rather than my life savings.

This shit has aged me 10 years since the start of 2024.

Is anybody else feeling this way?

[Altcoin Sherpa @AltcoinSherpa]

Here is a list of some of the Threads I have written over the last several years on Twitter. I talk about $BTC and $ETH trading as well as a bunch of other topics. I've always used Twitter as a trading journal and am learning as much as you, so I hope you find this helpful.

[Altcoin Sherpa @AltcoinSherpa]

Damn, both trades I'm eyeing $DYM and $TIA are leaving without me. Will stay patient though and not rush in

[TheoTrader 🏰 @theo_crypto99]

#Bitcoin

Nothing has changed, dont get shaken out!

We sending tomorrow post GDP numbers.

[Victor @vicestamos]

@concodanomics @threadreaderapp unroll

[Victor @vicestamos]

@CryptoJelleNL Indeed! Let us know

[Victor @vicestamos]

@concodanomics @threadreaderapp unroll

[Victor @vicestamos]

@MarketMobsterUK I’ll be joining the patreon soon, feeling that it’s well worth the 10 quid a month, especially now during the bear market to setup for the upcoming bull run

[Victor @vicestamos]

@MarketMobsterUK Lmao, I’ll go look for that video anyways. Thanks!