Truthcaust

Student of the World. Voice of the Oppressed. Threat to the Tyrants. Husband. Father. A believer.

[Truthcaust @Vick313]

Simple rule of negotiation: when you have leverage, ask for everything under the sun and then let go of things that don’t matter and call it concessions- Before the US war on Iran, US had leverage but after the War, Iran has leverage (Hormuz).

[Brett Erickson @BrettErickson28]

Why is Iran so determined to access these "frozen assets" before agreeing to any peace deal?

First and foremost, let's get two things out of the way right off the bat:

Some estimates indicate that Iran has ~$80B-$120B in assets that have been frozen in foreign banks that come from revenues of Iran's oil sales. A large amount of these frozen assets are now held in Qatar, Iraq, and Oman.

So yes, it is "Iran's Money"... But if I break into your house, steal your wallet, and refuse to ever give it back to you no matter how desperately you need it... is it your money, or is it effectively my money now?

Now that we have those settled, let's dive into a bit of why these unfrozen assets are so critical to Iran, and so toxic to agree to for the United States.

Iran has experienced significant damage to their infrastructure throughout the Iran War. While the Government of Iran may place a figure around $300B, they have every reason to inflate that figure to try to secure maximum compensation in a peace deal. With that said, the number is easily >$100B.

We have seen several figures thrown out during the negotiations of the Memorandum of Understand, or MOU. $6 Billion. $12 Billion. $25 Billion. And a lot of this ties to how much is available with Iraq/Qatar/Oman. But in comparison to the damage that has been done to Iran? It's peanuts.

That's not the point.

In any peace deal that emerges, Iran will achieve one or two of three things:
1) Massive Sanctions Relief
2) Tolling of the Strait of Hormuz
3) A ~$300B "Reparations Fund"

In any instance, THIS will be where Iran is able to rake in the serious cash. No, the point of these frozen assets is not to be able to "pay off" Iran in that sense. It is woefully insufficient to do so.

The purpose behind the demands for the unfreezing of these assets upfront, and irreversibly, hinges on one primary aspect

Compensation for forfeiture of leverage
- This comes from the ~2,000 vessels that are held "hostage" in the Strait of Hormuz. Vessels and cargos that, on some ships, are worth hundreds of millions of dollars each, along with the crews on board. This, as unfortunate as it is, provides leverage to Iran that no rational strategist would just give away for free.
- On board these vessels are millions and millions of barrels of oil, a plethora of fertilizer, plastics, medical supplies, etc. Things that the global economy desperately needs, and this is obviously what the entire conflict has more or less boiled down to. Energy Wars. For Iran to allow for relief to the global energy markets, it would clearly lower their leverages at the negotiating table.
- Ergo, need for compensation.

Without up front and irreversible release of their frozen assets, Iran does not have sufficient incentive to forego these points of leverage. CLEARLY, the time is on Iran's side. CLEARLY, the global economy is going to crack before Iran collapses into anarchy. CLEARLY, regime change is not "right around the corner". Everyone can see this reality now.

So it makes no sense for Iran to give up this leverage when they could otherwise play the waiting game for as long as they need.

That money... whether it be $6, $12, or $25 Billion, is an impossibility for the United States. It CAN'T be paid...

But it clearly has to be.

While the Blockade of Iran has clearly failed miserably, it HAS imposed significant pain on Iran. And what do I mean, "it failed miserably"? In order for the Blockade of Iran to be successful, it needs to achieve a key strategic objective that the United States could not accomplish via military operations. These two primary strategic objectives are:
1) Regime Change
2) Major concessions at the negotiating table

While either of these seem incredibly far-fetched at this point, a common figure (although significantly inflated) that is regurgitated by everyone from Fox News to the White House is that, for every day the Blockade is imposed, Iran loses $435M/day.

Mathematically, let's work this out. The blockade has now been imposed for 45 days. $435M x 45 Days = $19.575B

So, optimistically, the United States is operating on the assumption that Iran has lost ~$19.5B as a result of the US Blockade.

...$6B, $12B, $25B...

Each of these sums, if unfrozen, would heavily or entirely offset the economic pain imposed on Iran via the blockade over the past 45 days.

You can argue all you would like, but no military options remain for the United States at this point. Operation Freedom? Failed embarrassingly. More bombing? How'd that go the first time? Seize Kharg Island? Wouldn't make a lick of difference. Full ground invasion? Get real.

So the ONLY remaining path that is even possible for the United States to flip the table is the economic warfare campaign. And let me be very clear... "possible" is equal to approximately a 0.5% chance. Miniscule... but not impossible.

But time, quite clearly, is running out for the United States and the global economy.

If Washington releases any sum of money, whether it be the $6B, $12B, or $25B... the only thing that will have been accomplished over the past 45 days will be Iran resupplying, digging out missile launchers, and repositioning. All the economic pain the United States has imposed over the past 45 days? Gone.

That's why everything for Iran and the United States hinges on these frozen assets. It is the only way in which Iran could justify letting all these vessels exit the Strait of Hormuz. The only way it could justify released hundreds and hundreds of millions of barrels into the global market that is THE primary leverage point for Iran. It is the only way.

But its untenable for the United States. Not only would it disintegrate the only long-shot chance that the Trump Administration has available to achieve victory, but delivering to Iran "Pallets of Cash" after Trump spent the past many years tormenting Obama over his decision to deliver cash to Iran would be the death knell in the legacy of DJT. It can't be done.

But it has to be. There is no other way it is justifiable for Iran. It's the only way the Strait gets opened. The only way this ends.

It's checkmate for Washington.

[Brett Erickson @BrettErickson28]

Why is Iran so determined to access these "frozen assets" before agreeing to any peace deal?

First and foremost, let's get two things out of the way right off the bat:

Some estimates indicate that Iran has ~$80B-$120B in assets that have been frozen in foreign banks that come from revenues of Iran's oil sales. A large amount of these frozen assets are now held in Qatar, Iraq, and Oman.

So yes, it is "Iran's Money"... But if I break into your house, steal your wallet, and refuse to ever give it back to you no matter how desperately you need it... is it your money, or is it effectively my money now?

Now that we have those settled, let's dive into a bit of why these unfrozen assets are so critical to Iran, and so toxic to agree to for the United States.

Iran has experienced significant damage to their infrastructure throughout the Iran War. While the Government of Iran may place a figure around $300B, they have every reason to inflate that figure to try to secure maximum compensation in a peace deal. With that said, the number is easily >$100B.

We have seen several figures thrown out during the negotiations of the Memorandum of Understand, or MOU. $6 Billion. $12 Billion. $25 Billion. And a lot of this ties to how much is available with Iraq/Qatar/Oman. But in comparison to the damage that has been done to Iran? It's peanuts.

That's not the point.

In any peace deal that emerges, Iran will achieve one or two of three things:
1) Massive Sanctions Relief
2) Tolling of the Strait of Hormuz
3) A ~$300B "Reparations Fund"

In any instance, THIS will be where Iran is able to rake in the serious cash. No, the point of these frozen assets is not to be able to "pay off" Iran in that sense. It is woefully insufficient to do so.

The purpose behind the demands for the unfreezing of these assets upfront, and irreversibly, hinges on one primary aspect

Compensation for forfeiture of leverage
- This comes from the ~2,000 vessels that are held "hostage" in the Strait of Hormuz. Vessels and cargos that, on some ships, are worth hundreds of millions of dollars each, along with the crews on board. This, as unfortunate as it is, provides leverage to Iran that no rational strategist would just give away for free.
- On board these vessels are millions and millions of barrels of oil, a plethora of fertilizer, plastics, medical supplies, etc. Things that the global economy desperately needs, and this is obviously what the entire conflict has more or less boiled down to. Energy Wars. For Iran to allow for relief to the global energy markets, it would clearly lower their leverages at the negotiating table.
- Ergo, need for compensation.

Without up front and irreversible release of their frozen assets, Iran does not have sufficient incentive to forego these points of leverage. CLEARLY, the time is on Iran's side. CLEARLY, the global economy is going to crack before Iran collapses into anarchy. CLEARLY, regime change is not "right around the corner". Everyone can see this reality now.

So it makes no sense for Iran to give up this leverage when they could otherwise play the waiting game for as long as they need.

That money... whether it be $6, $12, or $25 Billion, is an impossibility for the United States. It CAN'T be paid...

But it clearly has to be.

While the Blockade of Iran has clearly failed miserably, it HAS imposed significant pain on Iran. And what do I mean, "it failed miserably"? In order for the Blockade of Iran to be successful, it needs to achieve a key strategic objective that the United States could not accomplish via military operations. These two primary strategic objectives are:
1) Regime Change
2) Major concessions at the negotiating table

While either of these seem incredibly far-fetched at this point, a common figure (although significantly inflated) that is regurgitated by everyone from Fox News to the White House is that, for every day the Blockade is imposed, Iran loses $435M/day.

Mathematically, let's work this out. The blockade has now been imposed for 45 days. $435M x 45 Days = $19.575B

So, optimistically, the United States is operating on the assumption that Iran has lost ~$19.5B as a result of the US Blockade.

...$6B, $12B, $25B...

Each of these sums, if unfrozen, would heavily or entirely offset the economic pain imposed on Iran via the blockade over the past 45 days.

You can argue all you would like, but no military options remain for the United States at this point. Operation Freedom? Failed embarrassingly. More bombing? How'd that go the first time? Seize Kharg Island? Wouldn't make a lick of difference. Full ground invasion? Get real.

So the ONLY remaining path that is even possible for the United States to flip the table is the economic warfare campaign. And let me be very clear... "possible" is equal to approximately a 0.5% chance. Miniscule... but not impossible.

But time, quite clearly, is running out for the United States and the global economy.

If Washington releases any sum of money, whether it be the $6B, $12B, or $25B... the only thing that will have been accomplished over the past 45 days will be Iran resupplying, digging out missile launchers, and repositioning. All the economic pain the United States has imposed over the past 45 days? Gone.

That's why everything for Iran and the United States hinges on these frozen assets. It is the only way in which Iran could justify letting all these vessels exit the Strait of Hormuz. The only way it could justify released hundreds and hundreds of millions of barrels into the global market that is THE primary leverage point for Iran. It is the only way.

But its untenable for the United States. Not only would it disintegrate the only long-shot chance that the Trump Administration has available to achieve victory, but delivering to Iran "Pallets of Cash" after Trump spent the past many years tormenting Obama over his decision to deliver cash to Iran would be the death knell in the legacy of DJT. It can't be done.

But it has to be. There is no other way it is justifiable for Iran. It's the only way the Strait gets opened. The only way this ends.

It's checkmate for Washington.

[Truthcaust @Vick313]

Simple rule of negotiation: when you have leverage, ask for everything under the sun and then let go of things that don’t matter and call it concessions- Before the US war on Iran, US had leverage but after the War, Iran has leverage (Hormuz).

[Truthcaust @Vick313]

If Massie doesn’t win, our hearts as a nation are dead and nothing can wake it except a revolution of the heart.

[Shawn Ryan @ShawnRyan762]

$32 million dollars and an entire administration mobilized to destroy one congressman.
His crime?
Demanding answers about Epstein class abuse networks, and refusing to let child predators hide behind political cover.
If that level of firepower doesn't tell you who's being protected, nothing will.
Go Massie!

[Truthcaust @Vick313]

@piersmorgan The UN does not designate a terrorist organization only the countries that allied with Israel.

[Iran in Ghana @IRAN_GHANA]

TO ALL THE FREE-SPIRITED SOULS WHO SEE THIS:

Be our voice and help us reach more free-spirited people on social media. DEFEAT THE ALGORITHMS THAT TRY TO SILENCE OUR VOICE.

Your efforts will conclude in having a free world sooner. What you are doing today carries forward the profound shift initiated by Iran, which shattered the illusion of a unipolar world. The old monopolies of power are falling. Keep spreading the truth, and let us stand together in this new era of global resistance and independence.

[Truthcaust @Vick313]

At this point in time, the Israeli government’s actions in Lebanon are the primary obstacle to a ceasefire. This mirrors the previous pattern in Gaza, where negotiations repeatedly collapsed because Netanyahu systematically torpedoed them with last-minute "poison pill" clauses. It has become increasingly clear that the United States is unable to restrain its ally; in fact, the ally appears to control the U.S. government by holding our politicians and the President hostage through the leverage of the Epstein files. The world is well aware that Epstein had direct links to Israel and that Trump is named in the files—a point recently emphasized by Elon.

The American public should demand the full, unredacted release of the Epstein files, regardless of who facilitates it. Even if Donald Trump is implicated within them, we, the public should consider granting him total immunity and a clean slate. We must be willing to accept a leader with a criminal background so long as he is the one to finally shatter the blackmail machine keeping our government and our people hostage like he promised. The priority must be the total exposure of every name in those files to break the cycle of extortion and permanently end the stranglehold that AIPAC and foreign interests have over our country!

[Truthcaust @Vick313]

At this point in time, the Israeli government’s actions in Lebanon are the primary obstacle to a ceasefire. This mirrors the previous pattern in Gaza, where negotiations repeatedly collapsed because Netanyahu systematically torpedoed them with last-minute "poison pill" clauses. It has become increasingly clear that the United States is unable to restrain its ally; in fact, the ally appears to control the U.S. government by holding our politicians and the President hostage through the leverage of the Epstein files. The world is well aware that Epstein had direct links to Israel and that Trump is named in the files—a point recently emphasized by Elon.

The American public should demand the full, unredacted release of the Epstein files, regardless of who facilitates it. Even if Donald Trump is implicated within them, we, the public should consider granting him total immunity and a clean slate. We must be willing to accept a leader with a criminal background so long as he is the one to finally shatter the blackmail machine keeping our government and our people hostage like he promised. The priority must be the total exposure of every name in those files to break the cycle of extortion and permanently end the stranglehold that AIPAC and foreign interests have over our country!

[Truthcaust @Vick313]

At this point in time, the Israeli government’s actions in Lebanon are the primary obstacle to a ceasefire. This mirrors the previous pattern in Gaza, where negotiations repeatedly collapsed because Netanyahu systematically torpedoed them with last-minute "poison pill" clauses. It has become increasingly clear that the United States is unable to restrain its ally; in fact, the ally appears to control the U.S. government by holding our politicians and the President hostage through the leverage of the Epstein files. The world is well aware that Epstein had direct links to Israel and that Trump is named in the files—a point recently emphasized by Elon.

The American public should demand the full, unredacted release of the Epstein files, regardless of who facilitates it. Even if Donald Trump is implicated within them, we, the public should consider granting him total immunity and a clean slate. We must be willing to accept a leader with a criminal background so long as he is the one to finally shatter the blackmail machine keeping our government and our people hostage like he promised. The priority must be the total exposure of every name in those files to break the cycle of extortion and permanently end the stranglehold that AIPAC and foreign interests have over our country!

[Tracey Gallagher @asmartbrunette1]

@RepDonBeyer It was read it. This was put out AFTER negotiations and look who was tagged.

[Seyed Mohammad Marandi @s_m_marandi]

Trump is lying.

Lebanon is included in the ceasefire.

The Strait of Hormuz is now closed again and the genocidal Zionist regime will be punished.

[Truthcaust @Vick313]

@Pataramesh This happened after Iran told Pakistan it has 15K kissiles and 45k drones remaining in stock. Source : WSJ

[Truthcaust @Vick313]

@bach_J496 @cenkuygur Non aggression probably. Repeat bombing.

[Truthcaust @Vick313]

@Tontareh1981 @cirnosad How do you deduce that with their 10 point plan that will form the basis of the negotiation? Gettinf bombed again is for sure a possibility?

[Truthcaust @Vick313]

@07zil Ah yes, that’s why the US base Prince Sultan is there.

[Truthcaust @Vick313]

@07zil Please make sure you follow the “Mahdi” born in Medina

[Truthcaust @Vick313]

Ya Ali Madad

[Truthcaust @Vick313]

@RShahzaddk Stupid insaan - halal khao

[Truthcaust @Vick313]

@the_criterionn @sultan_exists Whabbi logic - One who ate the liver of HZ. Hamza accepted Islam and the one who raised our beloved prophet saw died Kafir. Brain rot max.