As bad as a closed Hormuz will be for the world, I'm starting to think that the world will be a better place if oil briefly goes to $250 and a very select subset of the financial market participants that have learned all the wrong lessons over the last 15 years blow up overnight.
Yes, it will be incredibly painful. Maybe great depression level stuff. We can repair and rebuild if markets are allowed to function freely and properly. But if this nihilistic, opposite of good capital allocation regime continues to get rewarded, we end up in a very dark place.
We are quickly sliding toward an Animal Farm/Brave New World version of Idiocracy. All of the capital is sliding toward the people controlling whatever narrative they choose ("Brandow is what the plants crave") while the plants wither and die because farmers cant afford fertilizer at suppressed crop prices. The true believers in Brandow get rich while the lower 80% of the K metaphorically starve.
I'm a free markets capitalism guy but THIS aint it. What we have today is something akin to the USSR, where the oligarchs own the government, media and financial markets. Price signals dont function with massive underproduction of real goods and enormous overproduction of the nonsense that enriches tech billionaires. And when the $2+ Trillion of compute that is not needed gets built, the billionaires that control the government will have the taxpayer buy it because this is the new command economy.
Every day the AI bubble gets bigger the more the top of the K diverges from the bottom and the more painful the unwind eventually is. The sooner we rip this bandaid off the better.