vikas

Let's agree to disagree

[BisphamGreen @BisphamGreen]

Do you look like you're the house?

[vikas @vikasvhegde30]

@Macrobysunil Even after so much yen strengthening, precious metals are not gaining to that extent. Carry reversing is putting pressure on all assets while weaker USD is supporting greenback assets like gold and silver. That's why PM's got stuck in a rangebound zone.

[vikas @vikasvhegde30]

@Macrobysunil Well articulated

[vikas @vikasvhegde30]

@Macrobysunil Maybe some TACO is priced in which we are not aware of yet

[CM Office, GoUP @CMOfficeUP]

राधे राधे!
जय श्रीकृष्ण!

[Aravind @aravind]

This piece by @sagorika_s explains exactly why so many, especially the new middle-class, are susceptible to psyops and how adversaries weaponize psychology and "Brandolini's principle" to program the masses to cause anarchy. And how do we counter it. Do read👇

[Danish Kaneria @DanishKaneria61]

I am disturbed because every protest in India seems to have the same script.

1. Abuse Lord Ram.

2. Abuse Bharat Mata.

3. Abuse PM Modi.

4. Abuse PM Modi’s late mother.

5. Abuse Brahmins.

6. Abuse Hindutva.

No discussion.

No solutions.

Only slogans, abuse, and chaos.

The opposition seems to be living under the illusion that one day they will be able to create a Nepal-like situation in India.

No trade deal with the US has even been signed yet, but some farmers are already ready to block Delhi.

This is becoming a circus.

How can a nation progress when so many people are willing to protest first and verify facts later?

[vikas @vikasvhegde30]

@praveengirotra Same skew happened on call side but market went down harder. It indicates option buyer's demand nothing more.

[𓍢ִ໋ @SanskritSpark]

What kind of fetishes and new virus making by these chingsects? 😭😭

[vikas @vikasvhegde30]

@taxologyin For options, only absolute value of profit/loss is considered as turnover and not full value of consideration. Also we can file ITR-4 subject to eligibility and can pay tax at rate mentioned u/s 44AD

[vikas @vikasvhegde30]

@Macrobysunil Looking at all-out sell off yesterday, seems like CPI numbers are coming pretty hot. But with upcoming SpaceX IPO and AI FCF discounting, numbers maybe tweaked to truflation which is ultra positive for markets and PM.

[vikas @vikasvhegde30]

@darpan_jain @Macrobysunil Gold or commodities backed Bonds and stablecoins are inevitable in the future. That is evident in central banks purchase trend accross the world

[vikas @vikasvhegde30]

@Macrobysunil Seems like China hit job avenging for prohibition from SpaceX IPO

[Aravind @aravind]

There will be a lot more energy found. India is rich in unused resources. That's good. At the right time, they are going to be utilized. But only if Indians don't fall for foreign propaganda and sabotage our own growth. Because this news also means more hit jobs will come.

[vikas @vikasvhegde30]

@KingKong9888 Untill Chinese oil reserves start to face the heat

[Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy @Macrobysunil]

The Railway Bubble Explains AI Better Than Most People Think

The railway bubble is one of the best ways to understand what’s happening with AI today.

The railway boom began with a real breakthrough.

Before railways, moving goods and people was slow, expensive, and limited. Goods travelled by horse carts, canals, and ships. People moved at a much slower pace. Markets were mostly local. A region’s economic value depended heavily on how easily raw materials, workers, and finished goods reached other places.

Then railways arrived.

Distance began to shrink.

Trips once measured in days took hours. Coal, steel, food, and manufactured goods moved faster and cheaper. Cities expanded. Workers reached new places. Trade routes shifted. Entire regions became more valuable because they were connected to railway networks.

So the early excitement made sense.

Railways changed the world.

The first railway companies showed investors what was possible. Investors saw speed, scale, and profit. Governments saw national development. Promoters saw a chance to raise money. The public saw a future unlike the past.

That’s how the bubble began.
First came real innovation.
Then came the early winners.
Then came the story everyone wanted to believe.

“Railways are the future.”

And they were.

But the market slowly turned a true idea into a dangerous assumption.
“Railways are the future, so every railway company must be valuable.”

That’s where things went wrong.

Money rushed into almost every railway project. New companies appeared quickly. Promoters proposed routes everywhere. Investors bought railway stocks less because they understood each business, and more because railway stocks were rising.

The quality of the project mattered less.
The price mattered less.
The expected return mattered less.
Exposure to the future became the only thing people cared about.

That is classic bubble psychology.

A real technology creates real winners. Investors then stretch those early wins across the whole sector. Capital gets careless. Valuations break away from reality.

As railway mania grew, more routes were approved. Some made sense. They connected major cities, industrial hubs, ports, and high-demand areas.

Many others didn’t.

Some lines copied routes already in place. Some connected weak markets. Some were built mainly because money was available. Some existed more for speculation than long-term profits.

The world needed railways.

It didn’t need every railway, in every location, at every price.
That was the mistake.
The infrastructure had value. The capital allocation didn’t.
Then reality arrived.

Railways were expensive to build. Land had to be bought. Tracks had to be laid. Bridges, tunnels, stations, and engines required huge sums of money. Costs rose. Many companies needed more funding than expected. Profits took longer to arrive. Passenger and freight demand wasn’t strong enough to support every route.

Investors eventually understood the future was real, but the returns were not spread evenly.

The best railway lines survived.
The strongest operators became valuable.
Weak projects collapsed.
Share prices crashed.
Speculators were wiped out.
Money raised in a wave of excitement turned into losses.

That’s the main lesson.

Railways didn’t fail.
The railway bubble failed.

The technology survived. The infrastructure stayed useful. Railways kept transforming economies for decades and became one of the foundations of industrial growth.

But investors who bought the wrong railway stocks at the wrong prices still lost money.

That’s how bubbles work.

They are not always built on fake ideas.

Many of the biggest bubbles begin with real technology, real innovation, and real productivity gains.

The bubble forms when investors confuse the future of the technology with the future returns of the stocks.

Railways changed the world.
Railway investors still lost money.
The internet changed the world.
Dot-com investors still lost money.

Now AI has taken the place of railways.

AI is real. It will change productivity. It will affect software, research, coding, automation, defence, healthcare, finance, content, and robotics.

But that doesn’t mean every AI company deserves any valuation.

The tracks and stations of the railway era have been replaced by GPUs, data centers, power contracts, cloud spending, and private AI valuations.

The story is once again simple.

“AI is the future.”
And that statement is likely true.
But the dangerous assumption is back too.
“AI is the future, so every AI asset must be valuable.”
That is where investors need discipline.

The question is not whether AI is real.

The question is whether future AI revenue will justify the amount of money being poured into chips, data centers, energy infrastructure, cloud contracts, and private valuations today.

History doesn’t repeat perfectly.
Human behaviour does.

Every generation believes its bubble is different because the technology is new.

The pattern usually stays the same.

Real innovation.
Early winners.
A story everyone repeats.
Capital rushing in.
Overbuilding.
Valuations getting stretched.
Reality returning.
A crash.
Survivors become infrastructure.
Speculators get wiped out.

Railways were real.
AI is real too.

But a real technology still turns into a financial bubble when capital loses discipline.

That is the lesson from railway mania.
The future might be right.
The price might still be wrong.

[vikas @vikasvhegde30]

@FirstSquawk Nobody knew that before

[vikas @vikasvhegde30]

@Macrobysunil Apart from liquidity pressure selling by GCC, it seems like there has been a suppression from China in commodities market to swallow physical at maximum. Once China is done with that phase, they will do upward revaluation along with launch of commodity backed stablecoins.

[Nithin Kamath @Nithin0dha]

The news about import duties on gold and silver going up to 15% came late last night. The interesting thing: neither open interest, prices, nor volume in Gold and Silver showed any unusual moves in the hours leading up to the announcement.

If this had happened in the United States, I’m fairly sure some of the people close to the decision-making process would have found a way to trade it, either through regulated futures markets, other derivative contracts, or prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi.

We’ve seen versions of this with crude. And during the Iran conflict, too, there were all these reports and allegations about people around the government trading through futures, contracts, and prediction markets before or around important announcements.

It’s kind of insane how casually people in power seem to monetize privileged information. At some point, this stops looking like “market participation” and starts looking like blatant insider trading with better branding.

Just another reason why Indian markets, despite all their flaws, are far more tightly controlled in these grey zones than many Western markets.

[Aravind @aravind]

I have an intuitive hypothesis. The more time you spend in nature and observing natural things, the more will be your lifespan.

There have been scientific research like "hospital beds with a tree outside the window have lower mortality rates."

The universe wants you to observe itself. The universal consciousness (brahman) uses your consciousness (atman) to enjoy its creations.

So the more time you spend in nature being mindful, observing, and enjoying natural things like plants and animals, the more you will be kept alive.

The universe needs to understand and enjoy itself using itself - that's every conscious being including you. Animals can observe a lot more of nature but they can't appreciate.

So go out everyday to a park and have a mindful walk observing and enjoying nature. Or fill your space with nature and pets to enjoy them. Take some time to do so.

Human creations can also be enjoyed. But they only give second order effects to help you stay alive and healthy.

The best is to be Sir David Attenborough. Travel the world, see and enjoy a lot of nature and natural creations, and live up to a 100 healthy and appreciated by the rest of the universe.

Btw, if you have a doubt about my hypothesis, astronomers who do observational astronomy watching and discovering a lot of celestial objects too tend to live long and healthy lives ;)