BREAKING: Iran threatens the US with "complete and absolute closure of the Strait of Hormuz," following tonight’s US attacks warning it will now be "fully responsible for the consequences" on oil and gas exports, per Fars.
With this closure and global oil inventories now weeks away from hitting historic lows after IEA nations drew down strategic reserves faster than at any point in history, $200+ oil is imminent.
Republican Launches Long-shot Bid to End H-1B Visa Green Card Pathway - Newsweek https://t.co/9GZO8UdaQ6
Wohooooo... Love it.... Let's reduce the Indian population... Get these Indians outta my USA...
First Google, now Meta…Microsoft thinking about it.
Two implications:
1) Former buyers of their stocks are now net sellers.
2) Implies debt financing is too expensive…after all the Private Credit market is effectively in a asset withdrawal period so effectively frozen.
A large systematic bid to the market has not only disappeared but is now dumping supply on the market.
BREAKING: The proposed US-Iran peace deal includes a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran, per NYT.
The program is being called an international "investment fund," which the US would facilitate in the final deal.
This comes as Iran demands "reparations" to end the war.
Wall Street is ramping up hedges against Big Tech:
The total net notional value of credit default swaps (CDS) outstanding on major tech firms is up +$1.0 billion so far in Q2 2026, to a record $12.5 billion.
The total value of debt being insured against default on these companies is up +500% since Q2 2025.
Oracle, $ORCL, leads with ~$6.5 billion, followed by Amazon, $AMZN, at ~$2.0 billion, and Alphabet, $GOOGL, at ~$2.0 billion.
At the same time, Microsoft, $MSFT, stands at ~$1.0 billion, Meta, $META, at ~$800 million, and Nvidia, $NVDA, at ~$200 million.
Furthermore, monthly notional trading volumes of Big Tech CDS trading at Bank of America are up +900% since the start of 2025.
For context, most of these CDS contracts did not trade actively until 2025.
Corporate borrowing tied to AI is exploding.
Shocking stat of the day:
Annual interest expense on US public debt could rise to as much as 30% of government revenue by 2036, an all-time high.
This would occur if the 10Y Treasury yield averages 4.70% over the next decade, or ~55 basis points above the current projection of the Congressional Budget Office.
This means nearly 1 out of every 3 dollars of government revenue would go toward servicing debt, TRIPLE the level seen in 2022.
Under this same scenario, net interest costs as a % of GDP would rise to a record 5.3% by 2036, DOUBLE the levels seen in 2023.
Meanwhile, the 10Y Treasury yield briefly touched 4.68% on Tuesday before easing to 4.56% on Friday.
The US government needs lower rates more than anyone.
BREAKING: Iran directly rejects Trump's claim that Hormuz "will be opened" as part of a "largely negotiated" agreement he just posted on Truth Social, saying Trump's claim is "far from the truth" and that Hormuz "will remain under Iranian management" with Iran retaining exclusive permanent authority over route, timing, method, and permits, per Fars.
Iran also confirms the nuclear file has not been discussed and that American officials themselves have told Iran in multiple messages that "Trump's tweets are primarily for domestic American propaganda and media consumption" and "should be disregarded." The "largely negotiated" deal claim therefore has no basis.
Pro world: mention of *pre-war* Hormuz transit levels
Pro Iran: Hormuz transits “exclusively under the authority” of Iran, nuclear file has not been discussed