🚨 THE US-IRAN WAR FATE WILL BE DECIDED IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS
At 9pm ET today, President Trump will deliver a televised speech on Iran.
Most people are expecting a ground invasion announcement, while some are expecting a ceasefire.
Let me tell you 3 different scenarios and how the market would react to it:
1) End of war or Ceasefire
This will absolutely crash the oil prices.
Remember the 20% dump in Oil?
Today's crash could be even bigger if a ceasefire happens.
Stocks and crypto will skyrocket as a major uncertainty will end.
2) Ground invasion
If you're holding oil, you'll watch your portfolio skyrocket.
If you're holding stocks or crypto, you'll start looking for other jobs.
Any ground invasion announcement will crash the markets, similar to the 2025 tariff's announcement.
Oil could skyrocket to $120, stocks will dump 3%-4%, and the crypto market could experience a flash crash.
3) Nothing important
We have destroyed Iran.
There's nothing left to do.
NATO has betrayed us.
Iran is no longer a threat.
Our Military is the best
This will say nothing important but will still give a hint of de-escalation.
If this happens, Oil could drop 4%-5% while stocks could rally 1.5%-2%.
What do I think will happen?
IMO, a ground invasion is highly unlikely.
A complete ceasefire is also unlikely, so expecting some word gimmick that will indirectly hint that de-escalation is happening.
And a few things are hinting towards de-escalation too.
More vessels are passing through Strait.
Bond yields are dropping.
DXY dropped below 100.
Oil dropped below 100.
Now the market just wants to hear from Trump, and that's where the actual volatility will kick in.