Vinod Gowda

Engineering Leader @ Kapiva - a wellness D2C brand in India. Full Stack Development | Data| Analytics | AI | Automation Testing

[Sridhar Vembu @svembu]

What is ailing the software job market is not AI taking away jobs (not yet anyway).

Here is my thesis, as a participant and observer of software for 30 years. Over those 30 years:

1. Massive over-capacity steadily developed in enterprise software due to a flood of VC, PE and IPO money.

2. Software vendors applied liberal doses of marketing spending to spread Fear (of missing out) and Uncertainty ("tech is changing, you need us") and Doubt ("are you confused? trust us") among corporate customers and the result was ever growing IT spending. Enterprise IT budgets kept rising because which CIO or Board would want to be seen as lagging? Major corporations in the West have layers and layers of duplicated IT systems, lots of money spent to acquire them and even more money spent to get the disparate systems to work together. The more inefficient IT systems ended up becoming permanent resource drains, requiring vast human resources to simply keep them running.

3. Large enterprises in the West found those needed human resources in India - transferring those inefficiencies to IT services firms in India, often multiplied by 3 or even 4! That "multiplied inefficiency" happened because IT budgets were kept fixed in dollar terms and more people got hired in India to "get more done".

Result? A large number of IT jobs in India came to depend on those original inefficiencies and the multiplied inefficiencies.

4. Note how Indian banks and financial institutions are more IT savvy, while spending far less, than established financial majors in the US - Indian firms did not have the budgets to splurge! Necessity made them highly efficient and today India's financial institutions are able to fend off foreign competition easily.

5. One of the deep facts about software is that often a 2 person team can solidly outperform a 20 person team and a 10 person team can do the work of a 200 person team. This is not just due to talent disparity - even when the large teams have equivalent talented people, they can easily end up being wasted on unproductive projects.

6. When people are billed by the hour or by the staff month (input metrics), as it happens often in IT services, there is zero incentive to remove those inefficiencies, to empower the 2 person team as opposed to hiring 20.

It is those multiplied inefficiencies in IT, built up over decades, that is facing a reckoning now.

Now enter AI. A large amount of code is boilerplate code in many projects and AI can eat such code for breakfast. Depending on the nature of a project AI can offer 10-20% productivity gains. Significant but not the 10x or 100x leap yet to destroy jobs on a vast scale.

But those AI gains of today pale in comparison to the "multiplied inefficiencies" built up over decades.

This reckoning nearly happened in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC 2008-9). It got postponed because the central banks flooded the world with money and a part of that money flooded into enterprise IT.

The pandemic unleashed another flood of money into enterprise IT.

Those floods are now history and we have a serious drought.

That is why I am pessimistic about the software job market, even before accounting for AI.

[Vinod Gowda @vinodgowda111]

@CRED_support Guys, you have the worst customer service on earth! Honestly was never annoyed this much with any of the service till now! You guys are setting benchmark how not to run CS @kunalb11 , Your CS is a joke and it's a never ending circus trying to reach your CS!

[Vinod Gowda @vinodgowda111]

@CRED_support Honestly, your customer support is a joke, it’s an never ending circus. Trying to foreclose a loan from yesterday and not able to do so. If you can’t provide basic support to a customer in need, I don’t know what’s more important than that. Worst service!

[Vinod Gowda @vinodgowda111]

@CRED_club Guys you have the worst customer support, if you have capability to automate the support, you are welcome to do so, but until you reach that point at least you should have basic support. Trying to foreclose the loan from yesterday and not able to, worst experience!

[Vinod Gowda @vinodgowda111]

@realEstateTrent When this happens to me, I just move on. Most of the time, sometime later same book which was not interesting becomes interesting all of a sudden bcz you will be a new person, when that happens, pick it up again and you dnt have to even put effort, reading will flow like a river!

[Vinod Gowda @vinodgowda111]

@readswithravi Poor Charlie’s almanac

[Vinod Gowda @vinodgowda111]

Here is what I got! Can you guess the prompt? #ChatGPT #LLMs #artistic #AIArtwork #AI #DALLE3

[Vinod Gowda @vinodgowda111]

Dall E is available with @ChatGPTapp for free with two images per day limit! #ChatGPT #Dalle #AIimages #LLMs

[Vinod Gowda @vinodgowda111]

@letsblinkit ordered agaro pressure washer and received damaged product. No support over call and Your chat is also hampered because of surge in queries! Honestly one of the worst customer experience! Order number : ORD283049573

[Vinod Gowda @vinodgowda111]

@elonmusk listening to your podcast on @lexfridman What if there is no meaning to life and there is no question to the answer which is earth? there is a good chance that universe is just a never ending cosmic play! & it seems like entire manifestation is contained in nothingness!

[UXDATA Academy @uxdata_academy]

#uxdatainstitute #TeachersDay #ITjobs #EngineeringJobs #SoftwareTraining #softwaretesting #coding #developers #testers
https://t.co/MBlbSpsbDq
Proud to be a teacher :)

[UXDATA Academy @uxdata_academy]

The art of programming is the art of converting business requirements into data structures and algorithms!

https://t.co/MBlbSpsbDq

#uxdatainstitute #Bengaluru #ITjobs #EngineeringJobs #SoftwareTraining #softwaretesting #coding #developers #testers

[Kumar Reddy @KumarReddy67314]

Hy hii!!
Git a version control system. open source repo is beneficial for studying the code.
Git all it takes is pull and push .
git init.
git add filename
git commit -m "message"
git push
#GitHub #git @uxdatainstitute @vinodgowda111

[UXDATA Academy @uxdata_academy]

#programming #programmer #reactjs #reactnative #Bangalore #softwaretraining #softwarejobs

[Vinod Gowda @vinodgowda111]

English is the new programming language! #ChatGPT #programming

[Vinod Gowda @vinodgowda111]

@agazdecki @MakeItAQuote Color

[Vinod Gowda @vinodgowda111]

@nikitabier @MakeItAQuote Color

[Vinod Gowda @vinodgowda111]

@nikitabier @memdotai

[Vinod Gowda @vinodgowda111]

If you don't know how to use Al in your work to produce better results, soon you will be replaced with the one who knows! #ChatGPT #layoff2023 #technology #programming

[Vinod Gowda @vinodgowda111]

The definition of "uneducated" changed again, earlier it was reading and writing, then it was English, till now it was Programming, and now it's Al! #ChatGPT #programming