Vipin Sandal

Macro, AI tech, policy & market wonk, following system thinking & patterns, not narratives, writing sense of complex systems.

[Vipin Sandal @vipinsandal]

@palkisu Congrats Palki, it is much needed one, Unlike other major powers with global media lenses like the BBC, The Economist, or China’s state platforms, India has rarely attempted to bridge this narrative gap internationally.

[Anita R Ratnam @aratnam]

Listen to the Prime Minister of Norway who is perplexed by the continuous negative coverage of Prime Minister Modi in western media.

[Vipin Sandal @vipinsandal]

Watch three things upcoming

1. OPEC unity, especially UAE’s stance

2. Oil supply decisions vs global inflation

3. Any shift away from USD-linked oil trade

The next big macro move may come from a quota suc as OPEC and OPEC+ disagreement.

Explainer:

OPEC works like a cartel, restrict supply, keep prices high. But cracks are showing. UAE has invested heavily to raise production capacity, yet quotas force it to hold back output. That tension is real.

Why it matters now:

Global inflation is still sensitive to energy prices. Any country breaking ranks and increasing supply can cool oil prices and disrupt the cartel balance.

The deeper layer is, this isn’t just about oil. It links to the dollar system. Oil trade largely happens in USD, which helps sustain global demand for US assets. If producers like UAE push for more flexibility or bilateral trade, the long-term ripple could extend beyond oil into currency dynamics.

[Vipin Sandal @vipinsandal]

@elonmusk Capital allocation is not determined solely by wealth, it is also driven by demand conditions in the economy.

[Vipin Sandal @vipinsandal]

@DivaJain2 A consumption-led growth model will eventually hit structural limits. India needs to shift its focus toward strengthening the current account rather than relying excessively on capital inflows, otherwise it risks reaching to unsustainable limits with a weak consumers.

[Vipin Sandal @vipinsandal]

Will history repeat itself?

Just Forget the noise around geopolitics for a second. Something far more strategic is unfolding quietly in India’s financial system, and hardly anyone is talking about it.

The Reserve Bank of India has pulled a subtle but powerful lever to defend the rupee, without dramatic headlines or policy shocks.

Here’s what’s happening.
In early April, RBI opened a special window for oil companies, allowing them to buy dollars directly from the central bank instead of the open market.

Why does this matter?

Normally, Indian oil companies import crude and pay in dollars. To do that, they go into the forex market, sell rupees, and buy dollars.

This creates
Demand for dollars rises
Supply of rupees increases
Result, rupee weakens
Now RBI has changed the game.

By supplying dollars directly Oil companies no longer tap the open market

Rupee supply in forex markets drops
Dollar demand pressure eases

In simple terms, RBI has quietly removed one of the biggest sources of structural pressure on the rupee.

And the impact was visible. The rupee recently emerged as one of the strongest performing currencies in the forex market.

Why this matters for markets:
A stable currency is not just a forex story, it’s a capital markets story.

Lower imported inflation risk
Better macro stability perception
Improved foreign investor confidence
Reduced volatility in equities

Historically, this kind of intervention has been rare but telling. Over the past 15 years, similar mechanisms were used only a few times. Each time, markets saw strong upward momentum over the next few months.

When currency pressure eases structurally, it changes the risk narrative for the entire market.

[Vipin Sandal @vipinsandal]

@DearS_o_n Agriculture

[Vipin Sandal @vipinsandal]

@elonmusk As AI grow more human-like, humans risk growing more AI like.

UBI may solve material needs, but it risks eroding dignity of work, weakening human creative faculties by idling them out, and concentrating wealth.

[Vipin Sandal @vipinsandal]

If India wants productivity, competitiveness, and strategic autonomy, it has to invest deliberately and patiently.

We underinvest in R&D, expect private firms to take long-term risks, and celebrate short-term gains. That won’t build deep tech or industrial capability.

What needs to change:

• Treat R&D as a strategic public investment, not a residual expense

• Use targeted fiscal support to crowd in private innovation• Build strong academia–industry linkages

• Focus on deep tech, manufacturing, and applied research

• Measure outcomes honestly, not just “impact” narratives

Innovation is uncertain, slow, and capital-intensive, markets alone won’t deliver it.

India’s innovation gap isn’t a talent problem, it’s a structure problem.

[Vipin Sandal @vipinsandal]

China's Regulatory regulations of AGI

[Luiza Jarovsky, PhD @LuizaJarovsky]

🚨 BREAKING: China's new law on AI anthropomorphism has been officially enacted, and it is the world's STRICTEST law on the topic:

As I wrote earlier this year, to my knowledge, no AI law anywhere in the world regulates anthropomorphic AI systems with this level of detail, strictness, and concern for context-specific vulnerabilities and potential risks.

Earlier in January, I wrote an article about the law's first draft (link below). The approved version is even more comprehensive, covering liability-related risks as well.

Article 10, for example, establishes that providers of anthropomorphic AI must fulfill their security responsibilities throughout the service lifecycle and sets out detailed obligations for each phase of AI development and deployment.

Regarding children specifically, among the prohibited anthropomorphic AI practices is generating content for minors that causes them to imitate unsafe behaviors, induces extreme emotions, or leads them to develop bad habits, which may affect their physical and mental health.

Despite being a serious topic (which has led to numerous cases of suicide and mental health harm), most countries do NOT regulate AI anthropomorphism comprehensively.

An important reason for that is that peer-reviewed studies about AI-powered emotional manipulation and mental health harm only became available recently (as only in the past years have millions of people started to engage in these types of relationships).

China's new law is worth taking a look at, and hopefully, other countries, states, and regions will soon follow suit with their own protections against AI anthropomorphism.

👉 Lastly, if you are interested in China's AI policy and regulation, besides joining my newsletter's 93,200+ subscribers, I invite you to join my new Masterclass on the topic (only on June 1st). Links below.

[Vipin Sandal @vipinsandal]

AI replaces jobs, Income shifts, inequality, reskilling pressure.
New welfare systems or UBI, Changes in capitalism or labor markets,

Political realignment, New social norms around work.And Lump of Labor Fallacy and Baumol effect postulates that it will not happen.

However, even if AGI does not lead to mass unemployment, as suggested by the Lump of Labor Fallacy and Baumol effect.

Classic economics still implies trade offs. Gains in productivity may come with inequality, disruption, and wealth concentration. There is no utopian outcome.

[Vipin Sandal @vipinsandal]

@sunilgurjar01 Demography and human resources, Digital Public Infrastructure, Low cost Space Technology, Pharmaceutical. If you ask what is Indias strategic position, it can only built around people.

[Vipin Sandal @vipinsandal]

@elonmusk Freedom is the bedrock but truth is subjective and observation changes the results. it is very hard to summarise what truth is as it is scarce resource.

[Vipin Sandal @vipinsandal]

@greg16676935420 Still find it difficult to believe that humans actually reached the Moon decades ago, especially considering the challenges faced today.

[Vipin Sandal @vipinsandal]

@AdityaRajKaul Wet dreams about Nordic fjord and reality is still buffering for few extra penny and chasing any, any.

[Vipin Sandal @vipinsandal]

@JBlunt1018 Because, Trump already cleared that he always likes to hang around with losers, actually, because it makes him feel better and hate guys that are very, very successful, and you have to listen to their success stories. And Pakistan tickes all the boxes.

[Vipin Sandal @vipinsandal]

@kunalb11 Not always technology creates efficiency, and real impact depends on how societies use the surplus that follow.

[Vipin Sandal @vipinsandal]

No nation can become great on false narratives and misplaced priorities. Great countries are built on work ethic, institutions, and a shared sense of purpose.

When a society begins to expect gains without productivity since its inception, it gradually slips into dependency, begging from stronger nations just to sustain itself, rather than building meaningful capacity at home.

History shows that sustainable strength comes from diligence, innovation, and social cohesion, not from borrowed time or borrowed resources. Nations that fail to cultivate these foundations often struggle with identity, stability, and long term progress.

No prizes for guessing which country this refers to.

[Vipin Sandal @vipinsandal]

This is not just about gold, it involves an entire spectrum of rare earth elements, heavy metals, and other critical and precious minerals.

Mining has not developed in India to its full potential, partly due to populist policy priorities of all the govts. including challenges in land acquisition and rising unconditional cash transfers, leaving limited fiscal space for research and development.

The result is clear, India finds itself strategically vulnerable at this juncture. This is only the tip of the iceberg. India needs a structural transformation to achieve strategic autonomy in upstream capabilities.

[Vipin Sandal @vipinsandal]

@thedankoe They tell themselves, “Once I get better” and that moment never comes. Progress only happens through continuous imperfect action.