MarketThesis$

Value investor. Long horizon valuation. Wisdom and persistence. Sometimes I catch Lightning. Technical Trader.

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

November CPI #inflation +2.7% year/year vs. +2.7% est. & +2.6% prior … core +3.3% vs. +3.3% est. & +3.3% prior

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

This week’s data dump

[MarketThesis$ @visualtrama]

@vnkumarvnk It's seasonal, it's time.

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

This week’s data dump

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

Share of consumers saying jobs are plentiful rose in October to 35.1%, first increase in seven months but below 2019’s pre-pandemic average of 45.8%

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

Consumer Confidence expectations about better short-term business conditions increased to 21% in October, highest since February 2022…those who expect conditions to worsen dropped to 13.2%
⁦@Conferenceboard⁩

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

This week’s data dump

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

This week’s data dump

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

$SPY $QQQ | Aug. U.S. PCE Inflation Data👇

PCE 2.2% YoY, (Est. 2.3%)
PCE 0.1% MoM, (Est. 0.1%)

PCE Core 2.7% YoY, (Est. 2.7%)
PCE Core 0.1% MoM, (Est. 0.2%)

PERSONAL SPENDING +0.2%, (Est. 0.3%)
PERSONAL INCOME +0.2%, (Est. 0.4%)

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

Corporate profit growth (in year/year terms) accelerated to +10.9% in 2Q2024 ... best growth since 4Q2021 and quite strong relative to history

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

September ⁦@RichmondFed⁩ Manufacturing Index down to -21 vs. -12 est. & -19 prior … new orders up slightly but still deeply negative at -23 (-26 prior); shipments fell to -18 (-15 prior); wages at +15 (+14 prior) … employment slipped to -22 (-15 prior)

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

This week’s data dump

[Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon]

*FED'S GOOLSBEE SAYS RATES NEED TO DROP 'SIGNIFICANTLY'

*GOOLSBEE SEES ‘MANY MORE’ RATE CUTS OVER THE NEXT YEAR

*GOOLSBEE SAYS FED MUST STAY AHEAD OF LABOR MARKET WEAKNESS

via Business

[Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon]

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index up rather sharply in September and back in expansion … weakness in new orders and shipments but a nice bounce back in employment

Table from @business

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

This week’s data dump

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

Manufacturing component in PPI fell by 0.1% month/month in August … first decline since this past March

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

Used cars and trucks component in CPI remained in #deflation territory as of August ... -10.4% year/year, which is among larger declines in history

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

Core CPI ex-shelter year/year increase eased to +1.7% as of August ... getting closer to average before pandemic

[Cheddar Flow @CheddarFlow]

Speculators are very long the US equity market after the recent dip

[Ben Pouladian @benitoz]

$NVDA Jensen

"Blackwell is in full production- we'll start scaling in q4 and into next year, the demand is so great and everybody wants to be first and most... the intensity is quite extraordinary"