Vishwa Sharan

Growth Investor | Momentum Investing | Fundamental and Technical analysis | Full time investor | Digital Technology | Fitness

[Vishwa Sharan @vmsharan]

SpaceX (US) is having an IPO at $1.75T valuation (IPO size of $75B). Largest IPO in history of market

SpaceX ($1.75T) as % of India's entire market ($4.76T) is 36.7%
One company = ~1/3rd of India's market

SpaceX > India's top 10 companies combined × 2.3X
SpaceX = 8.8x Reliance Industries

This is just to tell the scale of this IPO and the amount of fund that will get absorbed in this IPO

[Vishwa Sharan @vmsharan]

@pushpendrakum Real estate industry doesn't get price correction ( like price crashing) but time correction
A long period where price doesn't move. Your investments doesn't give returns for a very long period

[Vishwa Sharan @vmsharan]

India has ~25,000–34,600 tonnes of household gold. That the world's largest private gold hoard.

Worth ~$3.8–5 T at current prices.

If even 1% gets monetized annually then $38–50B gets injected into the formal economy. That's larger than India's entire annual FDI inflow.

[Vishwa Sharan @vmsharan]

@viraj_sheth Data as of March 2026

[Vishwa Sharan @vmsharan]

(3/n) Sectors that gets impacted

1) Jewellery Retailers (Huge Negative) --> Higher gold prices --> lower consumer demand. Weddings, discretionary purchases deferred. Volume hit + margin pressure on old inventory

2) Gold ETFs / Sovereign Gold Bonds (Positive) --> As physical gold becomes more expensive due to duty, paper gold (ETFs, SGBs) become the preferred route. Expect fresh inflows into gold ETFs

3) Banks / NBFCs with gold loan books (Positive) --> Higher gold prices improve LTV (Lone to value) coverage on existing gold loan books, reducing NPA risk

4) Silver dependent sectors (Solar panels, electronics, EV battery) (Negative) --> Silver duty hiked too. Solar panel manufacturers and EV component makers use industrial silver. Input cost inflation incoming for these sectors

5) Diamond / Platinum Jewellers (Positive) --> As gold prices shoot up, consumers may shift to platinum, diamond, or silver jewellery. There may be demand substitution play

[Vishwa Sharan @vmsharan]

Government issued two orders overnight

1) Basic Customs Duty (BCD) on gold and silver imports doubled: 5% → 10%

2) Agriculture Infrastructure & Development Cess (AIDC) on gold and silver imports raised 5x: 1% → 5%

Reasons why government has to do this (1/n)

[Vishwa Sharan @vmsharan]

(2/n)
Why Government has to do this?

1) Protect the CAD (Current Account Deficit) -
Gold is India's 2nd largest import item after crude oil. With crude already at $107 (Iran war), India's import bill is exploding. Doubling gold duty is a direct attempt to curb the import bill and defend the CAD

2) Defend the rupee (₹95.63). It's at record low -
Gold imports drain forex reserves and weaken the INR. Higher duty --> less gold imports --> less USD demand --> slight INR support

[Vishwa Sharan @vmsharan]

@stepbystep888 US Market is expensive now. for an Indian investing in the US market there are many costs like Forex, Swift, Brokerages, TCS etc.

Investors will not be profitable if you invest small amount (like few lakhs) for a small period.

[Vishwa Sharan @vmsharan]

India rejected the Russian LNG cargo mainly because that specific LNG was under US sanctions. Indian companies fear banking, insurance, and compliance risks if they accept sanctioned cargoes.
Energy security is a real challenge for a growing economy

It can be one of the reasons why Govt announced voluntary cut for the Oil consumption

[Reuters @Reuters]

Exclusive: India declines Russian LNG under sanctions, talks continue on permitted cargoes, sources say https://t.co/wzTlSewZad https://t.co/wzTlSewZad

[Vishwa Sharan @vmsharan]

I would not say Real estate Crash but may be demand stabilization and time corrections.

Many reasons for that
- IT sector layoffs denting demand in tech heavy markets like Bangalore, Hyderabad etc.
- Price growth of apartments has outpaced income growth. there is an unaffordable wall getting created

[Vishwa Sharan @vmsharan]

What happens next day when Nifty 50 corrects more than 3% in a day? (Data from Jan 1st, 2020)

⭕️ There were total 19 crash days (-3% and more) (Post Covid there were 9 corrections)
⭕️Average corrections were -5.49%
⭕️ 12 out of 19 days Nifty 50 bounced back in Green. Next day bounce rate is 63%
⭕️Average next day return is +1.42%
⭕️Worst Nifty 50 corrections were on 23 Mar 2020: -12.98% (The day lockdown started in evening. Also bottom of the Covid)

[Vishwa Sharan @vmsharan]

Energy lockdown measures by countries.

Work from home, Fuel rationing, Reduced work week, Odd Even Vehicle rules, Industry fuel allocation, Petrol station closures

Ceasefire may not happen in few weeks, and normal supply (pre-war level) may take years. Qatar energy and many energy infrastructures had massive damage.

Government may take measures at their end, but Citizens should also exercise caution on using public transport, Car pool, use more induction instead of gas etc.

[Vishwa Sharan @vmsharan]

Remember 6 years back.

March 23rd, 2020 was the Covid bottom.
You never know this may be the bottom of 2026

[RedboxGlobal India @REDBOXINDIA]

TRUMP: I AM PLEASE TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. BASED ON THE TENOR AND TONE OF THESE IN DEPTH, DETAILED, AND CONSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS, WITCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD, SUBJECT TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ONGOING MEETINGS AND DISCUSSIONS. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP

#BREAKING

[Vishwa Sharan @vmsharan]

In short term, due to war there is a pain in the market but Nifty 50, Midcap 150, Smallcap 250 are trading below 1 yr average PE, 2 yr average PE and 3 yr average PE.

Smallcap 250 is offering best value.

[Vishwa Sharan @vmsharan]

⭕️Most metro users travel <8 km. Metro is mainly a last-mile / medium-distance commute system
⭕️ Metro handles only ~6–8% of Bengaluru travel demand, meaning massive growth potential.
⭕️ Surprisingly Indiranagar gets more traffic than MG road (Office + nightlife hub)
⭕️ Top origin station is Whitefield (Kadugodi) and Destination Station is MG Road and Indiranagar

[Vishwa Sharan @vmsharan]

Interesting. Let me add more insights

⭕️Majestic alone handles more commuters than many Tier-2 Indian airports ~2.5L daily passengers
⭕️ Purple line has 43% traffic share because of IT corridor, CBD, dense residential areas. Yellow line is growing fast
⭕️Evening peak is ~20–30% higher than morning peak. May be Staggered office exit, Shopping, dining traffic
⭕️ Tech parks are the biggest ridership drivers. Blue line when fully launched will be a game changer as it will connect to busiest IT corridor (Mahadevpura)

(1/2)

[Vishwa Sharan @vmsharan]

Big corrections in the global market. South Korea and Japan down by 9 and 7% and even Gift Nifty down by -3.28%

War lasting months especially when there is a oil crisis can trigger recessions, Hyperinflation (Hyperinflation is when prices rise so fast, money becomes almost worthless) and Central bank crisis

Hyperinflation --> In Zimbabwe (2008), inflation hit 89.7 sextillion percent (that's 89,700,000,000,000,000,000,000%). The government printed a 100T Dollar note which couldn't even buy a bus ticket

Oil prices spike --> Everything gets expensive (inflation) --> Central bank MUST raise interest rates to fight inflation --> But high rates means businesses can't borrow. You can't afford to buy House, Car = people lose jobs --> Economy shrinks (recession) --> Now you have HIGH INFLATION + HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT together.
That's called STAGFLATION

The central bank is now stuck.
If it raises rates → recession gets worse.
If it cuts rates → inflation gets worse.
There's no good move. That's the crisis

[Vishwa Sharan @vmsharan]

Bottom performing sectors in last 1 week

⭕️Aviation - Airspace closure, fuel cost spike, rerouting hits hard

⭕️ Fertilizers - Qatar (a major LNG supplier) has halted LNG output and issued force majeure. This directly hits gas supply to Indian fertilizer plants. Natural gas is the primary feedstock for urea and DAP fertilizer production. It accounts for 70–80% of production cost

⭕️City gas - Same reasons as Fertilizers

⭕️ Glass products - Glass manufacturing is one of the most energy intensive industries. Natural gas is a critical furnace fuel. The Qatar LNG disruption and spiking spot gas prices are a direct margin threat

⭕️Infrastructure - Many Infrastructure companies executes big projects in Middle east. Project visibility (Delay in projects, budget constraints) concerns in Middle East

⭕️Packaging - Petrochemical feedstock from crude

⭕️Auto - Crude surge raises input & fuel costs. There can be demand concerns

[Vishwa Sharan @vmsharan]

Countries hosting US bases are prosperous not because of the military bases, but because of their own institutions, technology, and trade policies.

Major powers don’t host foreign bases. They build their own alliances and capabilities. Russia and China also don't have US military bases.

[Vishwa Sharan @vmsharan]

Interesting data on US military deployment worldwide.

⭕️Military deployed across 80+ countries, 750+ overseas base, 171K troops and an annual budget of $70B
⭕️Largest deployment in Japan 53K troops
⭕️Germany has largest number of military base 20+

Most important: US has military deployment in 80+ countries but ZERO base in India

Indian had refused permanent foreign military presence on Indian soil from any country. The US can use Indian ports and airfields for logistics and refuelling but no permanent base, no permanently stationed troops, no pre-positioned weapons