V

[V @voiresoteric]

9월 금리는 인상되지 않을 것

[Barchart @Barchart]

There is now an 82% chance of a rate hike by the September FOMC Meeting 🚨 🚨

[V @voiresoteric]

"진실로 각 사람은 그림자 같이 다니고 헛되이 소란하며 재물을 쌓으나 누가 거둘는지 알지 못하나이다." - 시편 39편 6절

[P Equity Research 📰 @pequityresearch]

Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath is more bullish on Google's $GOOGL CapEx spending:

"Do you know what Google's 25 year average ROIC has been since going public? 32%. When you are a machine that compounds money at 32% over a 20 year average, you give these guys benefit of a doubt. These are not guys flying fast and loose, they are methodically investing in their edge. They are going to get massively rewarded...the best thing that can happen to them is 500 different models proliferate and they support all of them. They will make so much money at the silicon layer and as the cloud provider."

Via @theallinpod

[Jukan @jukan05]

“Sanjay has held a grudge against Apple since his days as a co-founder of SanDisk, and that resentment remains even now, in his role as Micron’s CEO.”

It’s only natural that Sanjay bristles at the mere mention of Apple.

What Apple did in 2023 was downright vicious. The days when it could procure NAND at cost and resell it to consumers at a 90% margin are over. Now that memory companies are fighting back, look at Apple acting like a spoiled child: “Hmph, fine—then I’ll just use Chinese memory!”

[NVIDIA @nvidia]

Korea has long been a technology leader, with the talent, industrial strength, and drive to help shape the AI era.

President Lee Jae Myung met with our CEO @JensenHuang today ahead of the San Francisco AI Summit to discuss deepening the partnership behind Korea’s national AI ambitions.

[Jukan @jukan05]

"CXMT aims to break into the U.S. in the long term, according to three sources, but its capacity is stretched by heavy domestic demand."

CXMT already has its hands full just trying to meet domestic demand in China—as I’ve said time and time again.

[V @voiresoteric]

언제 바뀔지 모르지만 항상 유연하게 사고할 것

[Mindset for Money @Mindset4Money_X]

The market is punishing negative FCF today, but it will be the same market praising Google’s full stack AI infrastructure in a few years.

Negative FCF only matters if the returns on capital do not show up, and for Google they will.

Zoom out.

$GOOGL

[V @voiresoteric]

빅테크 기업 재무가 지금 나빠진다고 내년과 후년에 반도체 수요가 과연 줄어둘까? 과연...?

[Gallery St. 갤스 @J90236317]

버핏이 CNBC에서 구글 얘기한 2분이 요즘 AI capex 논쟁 전체를 정리함.

"구글이랑 경쟁자들 전부 수천억 달러를 깔고 있다. 그건 진짜 돈이다. 우리 철도 개발에도 그런 돈은 안 들어갔다. 소프트웨어 시절엔 없던 게임이다."

자산 가벼울 땐 안 사더니 capex 무거워서 주주들이 싫어하는 지금 샀냐는 질문엔 — "기록을 보면 이 회사들이 월스트리트가 파는 물건의 90~95%보다 승자가 될 확률이 높다. 월스트리트 보고서 중에 기업의 실제 내부수익률을 파고드는 걸 본 적이 없다. 다음 분기 얘기만 묻는다. 우스운 일이다."

버크셔는 이 판에 310억달러를 얹었음. 어제 구글 FCF가 22년 만에 처음 마이너스가 된 바로 그 지출을, 버핏은 사야 할 이유로 읽는 중.

[V @voiresoteric]

흠..

[Bloomberg @business]

The US 30-year bond yield is trading above 5% for the longest stretch since the dawn of the financial crisis. https://t.co/ghob3ni0Uo

[V @voiresoteric]

@sshleo84 생각하게 만들어주는 분석이라면 얼마든지 좋습니다 🎯

[V @voiresoteric]

@sshleo84 👍👍

[Kimi.ai @Kimi_Moonshot]

Kimi K3 has received far more love than we expected, and our GPUs are feeling it.

Over the past 48 hours, demand has pushed close to the limits of our current capacity. To protect the experience of existing subscribers, we're temporarily pausing new subscriptions and prioritizing compute for current members. Existing subscribed users are not affected.

We're adding capacity as fast as we can and will reopen new subscription spots in batches.

Going forward, we'll also split membership into two more focused plans: Kimi Membership for Kimi Web, App, and Work; and Kimi Code Membership for coding workflows. This will help us match compute more precisely and keep the experience stable.

Thank you for your patience and understanding!

[V @voiresoteric]

더 값싼 서비스 = 수요 증가
싸지면 더 많이 사용하고 그 수요를 뒷받침하기 위해 컴퓨팅도 많이 필요하다.

[Ben Pouladian @benitoz]

Wall Street: Cheap Chinese models kill NVIDIA.

Kimi 48 hours later: Subscriptions paused. GPUs maxed. Adding capacity as fast as possible.

That’s Jevons Paradox with a CUDA bill.

Cheaper intelligence doesn’t reduce compute demand. It detonates it.

[Jukan @jukan05]

MERITZ SECURITIES: ACCORDING TO CHANNEL CHECKS, MIDDLE EASTERN SOVEREIGN AI INVESTORS, INCLUDING THOSE IN SAUDI ARABIA, HAVE RECENTLY BEGUN DISCUSSING MID- TO LONG-TERM MEMORY PROCUREMENT PLANS WITH KOREAN MEMORY MANUFACTURERS.

- Amid this demand growth, upward pressure has begun to emerge in the server DRAM spot market.

- Prices are rising particularly sharply for high-end products, such as those with 6,400Mbps bus speeds.

- This suggests that intensifying investment competition among CSPs and frontier-model developers is increasingly focused on products designed to maximize performance, amid worsening supply shortages.

- Spot prices for 64GB DDR5 server DRAM products have risen steeply since mid-July.

- Recent prices have climbed to $3,100–$3,400, approximately 146% above the end-June contract price of around $1,380.

- ACCORDINGLY, SERVER DRAM CONTRACT PRICES IN 3Q26 COULD RISE BY MORE THAN THE MARKET’S CURRENT EXPECTATION OF APPROXIMATELY 15% QOQ DURING THE QUARTER.

- In particular, suppliers that adopted more customer-friendly and flexible pricing in 2Q26 are likely to see especially sharp price increases in 3Q26 and 4Q26.

[V @voiresoteric]

거부하면 지속되고, 허용하면 흘러간다.

[SemiAnalysis @SemiAnalysis_]

Similar to the panic over DeepSeek R1, some uneducated people think Kimi K3’s use of linear attention (KDA) is bad for NVIDIA, HBM, DRAM, and networking because it has relatively lower KV-cache requirements. The opposite is true, and we explain why below. 👇️ 1/8🧵

[V @voiresoteric]

@AndreasSteno 👍

[Gary Vaynerchuk @garyvee]

How you see life is how it is. Your perception of the world is your reality.

[Alex Hormozi @AlexHormozi]

It takes everyone a different amount of time to realize that all suffering is self inflicted.