Roguevex

Shipping

[Roguevex @Volroguer]

@TheFlowHorse Great books! Can you share more of your book collection? Always looking for new books to read :)

[Roguevex @Volroguer]

Hearing dry bulk owners saying "we were stupid not to have invested in tankers 4-5 years ago, we lost the opportunity to make tons of money". Honest opinion: The ones who play to play eventually get the opportunity to make big returns (assuming they can stay in the game), no matter the segment. E.g. Containership owners had to play with low (some years zero) returns from the GFC until Covid before they got to make tons of cash. It makes sense why the shipping gurus highlight the importance of staying in and playing the game (among others).

#tankers #shipping

[Alex Hormozi @AlexHormozi]

Three types of players:

People who play not to lose.
People who play to win.
People who play to play.

The people in the third bucket win the most.

[Roguevex @Volroguer]

@AllVentured To add some context here. KPC vessel MT Kaifan that got struck by Iran about a month ago has still got water in the engine room. They are still trying to get it salvaged, definitely out of trading for a couple more months minimum

[Roguevex @Volroguer]

@VikingEyes @MarhelmData You’re right. What about those tankers above 25 years old that cannot do “market” cargoes anymore? If not scrap them, guess the only solution is to sell them to players doing sanctioned business (Iranian or non-price cap Russian)

[Roguevex @Volroguer]

Why do you think "this clearly flags heavier dark transit flows"? After the brief reopening many (non dark) vessels that were loaded inside the gulf left and never came back thus reducing the floating storage levels. Also now we are seeing more non-dark players taking the risk of crossing the Hormuz, compared to March-April-May.

[Roguevex @Volroguer]

@Brandon7921588 @CRUDEOIL231 It is but this does not guarantee that vessels will not get hit. There have been vessels, which have been hit but have not been reported.

[Roguevex @Volroguer]

The Iraqis are all over the market since last week looking for VLCCs to load from KAZ and cross the Soh but is hasn't been an easy exercise until now. They keep exporting oil through Baniyas(Syria) - transferring those barrels from Iraq by trucks and then selling to Aramco. Few barrels also going to Hamriyah and then reaching Fujairah via trucks. Interesting to see how this plays out

[Roguevex @Volroguer]

@SpartaFreight Owners with MR vessels in this region can also consider the option of loading from inside the Gulf to discharge in Fujairah. Last done for such voyage is at about 2.5 mln freight and 70k demurrage with awrp on charterers account. Strong TCE for such a short voyage !

[Roguevex @Volroguer]

@RehanS_Offcl @MarhelmData Usually the Additional War Risk Premium (AWRP) is paid by the charterers and is not included in the freight. For a vlcc that is easily another 5-7 million (sometimes more) extra paid by the charterer. Imagine how willing these traders are to get the barrels out of the gulf.

[Roguevex @Volroguer]

Numbers keep getting higher 💸

Maran Dane 270 26-29/9 USG/F.east $24.75m 260k Vitol Subs

DHT Tiger 270 26-29/9 Usg/China $24.4m 235k P66 Subs

#tankers #shipping #vlcc

[Roguevex @Volroguer]

VLCC: USG to China 📈

Spot rates have remained above usd 17-18 million since the start of the war (briefly reaching 27 mln in March 2026). Compare this to the usd 8mln freight these vessels were earning a year ago for the same voyage with some owners being ok they were earning healthy levels.

It’s been almost 6 months now that VLs have been printing loads of money. Increased tonne-mile demand has more than offset the barrels lost due to the closure of Hormuz.

That is the beauty of this industry, non-linear payoffs can give you extreme returns if you survive the bad days.

#tankers #shipping #vlcc

[Roguevex @Volroguer]

@SpartaFreight 200k on the demurrage for Almi Hydra. Solid numbers!

[Roguevex @Volroguer]

Solid rates on the vlcc spot market ex USG also

-ALMI HYDRA(13) 270 USG/THAI-F.EAST 05-09/09 $21.4M-$22.2M/$200K PTT
-AMPHITRITE(10) 270 USG/F.EAST 10-12/09 $19.0M/$180K EQUINOR
-NAVE ALLEGRO(20) 270 USG/JAPAN-C.CHINA 19-21/09 $21.0M-$2025M COSMO
-DHT MUSTANG(18) 270 USG/F.EAST 24-26/09 $22.2M

[Roguevex @Volroguer]

@AllVentured How do you expect the drawing of inventories is going to affect the tankers market?

[Roguevex @Volroguer]

@christankerfund Let's remind ourselves the average cash breakeven rate that $FRO has on its fleet. Can't wait for the next earnings announcement 🔥

[Roguevex @Volroguer]

VLCC: USG to China 📈

Spot rates have remained above usd 17-18 million since the start of the war (briefly reaching 27 mln in March 2026). Compare this to the usd 8mln freight these vessels were earning a year ago for the same voyage with some owners being ok they were earning healthy levels.

It’s been almost 6 months now that VLs have been printing loads of money. Increased tonne-mile demand has more than offset the barrels lost due to the closure of Hormuz.

That is the beauty of this industry, non-linear payoffs can give you extreme returns if you survive the bad days.

#tankers #shipping #vlcc

[Roguevex @Volroguer]

VLCC 'Hellstugutinden' 299/03 Universal Shipbuilding – hearing it has been committed at usd 57 million

Bold move by the buyers for a 23 year old tanker. Very curious to find out how they’re going to make their money back from this investment

#shipping #tankers #vlcc

[Roguevex @Volroguer]

@christankerfund Don’t you think there is room to go higher? VLs and Suezmaxes have been printing lots of money for quite sometime now

[Roguevex @Volroguer]

@citrini Bought $TEN. Sold at +75% (price) while earning a solid dividend yield of 7-10% during holding period.

Bough $META at 120. Sold at +50% 3 months later. Could have done a 2-3x but had decided not be greedy