volxvy

Advanced Prediction Market Analytics

[volxvy @volxvy]

@itslirrato @Polymarket `surprisingly popular`
works best if you have some prior insider knowledge
then fade the crowd with confidence

[volxvy @volxvy]

monday reminder: when the market expects something, it's already in the price, so the opposite happening generates larger price changes

[volxvy @volxvy]

EXPECTED VALUE ANALYSIS
At optimal entry (T-1, 82.7% implied):
E[PnL] = 0.934 × 0.173 − 0.066 × 0.827
E[PnL] = +0.107 per unit
That's 10.7% edge per trade. Compounding at 35,000 annual opportunities.
We don't need to say more.

[volxvy @volxvy]

NEW RESEARCH: Systematic mispricing in the 70-85% probability band with persistent positive expected value across 3,192 Polymarket BTC binary options and 914K trades

[volxvy @volxvy]

PROFITABLE MISPRICINGS (Realized - Implied):
T-7min, 78% implied: +6.9pp edge
T-3min, 73% implied: +7.4pp edge
T-3min, 83% implied: +7.0pp edge
T-1min, 83% implied: +10.7pp edge
Pattern: Mid-high probability options are chronically underpriced.