Young men are in trouble. I've talked about this before, but gambling really is turning into an epidemic. I don't say that lightly. Men in their 20s and 30s losing millions. I've spent a lot of late nights thinking about a solution. How the heck can I help young men not fall into that. I get it. As men, we want to provide. For our families. Girls. Kids. Parents. Whatever it may be. But often time it feels like we're falling behind...so we have to "catch up" by trying to hit it big with a quick gamble.
I've been there. Granted I was younger and didn't have much to lose, but I get it. I was within that vicious cycle once many years ago. The propaganda is 100x worse now though. This stuff is literally everywhere you look. 24/7 options coming, 0DTEs, prediction markets, sports betting. Perfectly advertised to take advantage of the male psyche. I can say all day that you need to resist the urge...but it's not easy. In fact, like any other addiction, it feels nearly impossible. I know successful dudes with millions lose it all. Dads. Husbands. Good men. It's sickening.
I'm just writing off the cuff here, but I'll share what changed my life. First, if you've never picked up a gambling app, don't. Ever. I don't care if you think it's entertainment. Dont do it. Second, for markets, common stock was the answer. 4-5 yrs ago, I called my broker and told them the strip all options trading permissions. I strictly trade shares. Infinitely better risk/reward. Third, have a dawg/friend/partner to run everything by. I used to keep everything to myself. I'm a private person. Would win or suffer in silence. But having someone to call you out on bs is too important, esp for men. Men need other men. "iron sharpens iron, and one man sharpens another."
I know the market is closed and it's a holiday, but wanted to share this because I think people (esp ones with an audience) need to be more vocal about this stuff. I really do care. You should too.
Just saw @apompliano invest in a media company that hits on this issue, so kudos there. Enough is enough.
Interesting choice of words
Best to say nothing if there is a thought that Rate Hikes will come in September
Remember our message:
Make as much as you can by Sept
Because a combination of Rate hikes, Seasonal Weakness, Mid-Terms and the market in Wave 5 after a parabolic rally will mean a difficult time after Sept.
The greatest 6-month stint for Silver is coming up.
History and macro environment both tell you this, not me. The holy grail set up for metals.
For the past half a decade, global macros have found a way to ease 10y yields anytime numbers started to creep towards 4.60 - 4.70%
In this case, WTI Crude played a significant role in creeping yields to 4.7%. Now with WTI Crude heading back to sub $80, as expected and shared my views many times over the past recent weeks, this creates the perfect opportunity for 10y Yields to plateau at that 4.60 - 4.70% mark and fear of hikes are not as strong any longer.
Every cycle from 4.70% down towards 4.00% has ignited a stronger Silver rally each time for a span of 6 months on average.
The idea that metals become a safe haven when inflation is rising is very misinformed. Metals become the safe haven in THIS environment, when Yields, Dollar, and Crude no longer become the safe bets and we enter a "sticky/uncertain" period of inflation.
My view in Feroce Research is that there will be a strong rotation towards Silver, even money leaking from Semis may find its way into Silver.
The fundamental view of supply/demand deficit continues to exist, as well as the technical resistance since 2023 turning into a support for the first time this year.
If silver were to replicate the move that happened last year, which we also had caught, we can expect $180 by the end of this year. My conservative target sits at $130 for now, until later upgraded.
This is one of the few moments where fundamentals, technicals, quantitative positioning, and macros all align for an industry.
5 rules that took me from losing trader to consistently profitable:
1. Never risk more than 1-2% per trade.
Losses are inevitable. Blowing up is optional.
2. If you're not sure, you don't trade.
Clarity is a prerequisite. Not a luxury.
3. The higher timeframe always wins.
Stop fighting the trend on a 1-minute chart.
4. Your first loss is your best loss.
Cut it and move on. Don't hold a loser hoping it recovers.
5. Sit on your hands more than you think you should.
The market rewards patience above everything.
Save this. Come back to it when you want to revenge trade.
In the ancient world, the way many people gained great wealth was by forming gangs of strong men, beating up their neighbors, and taking their stuff.
People still speak with admiration of men like Alexander the Great and Julius Caesar, but they were little better than gangsters who enriched themselves through armed robbery.
This was a negative sum game, and assured that people remained poor and unhappy for thousands of years.
Eventually, however, we figured out that respecting each other’s rights, building things, and trading meant that we could play positive sum games instead. We could increase the amount of wealth, and all would benefit. As a result, we moved from living in unheated shacks to living in what our ancestors would’ve thought of as paradise in only a few hundred years.
However, there are still people out there who think that beating someone up and taking their stuff is a really great idea.
It is the great task of our civilization to shun such people, as they are not fit to be part of society.
“The best index to a person's character is how he treats people who can't do him any good, and how he treats people who can't fight back.”
Abigail Van Buren
Over a hundred years of voting and we are still heading towards the exact outcome the ruling class have always wanted. The odds of that are impossible if voting was real. Stop playing along and it all ends.
Spielberg says "Christians will question their faith."
He doesn't say Muslims, Jews, Hindus, Buddhists, Sikhs, or Satanists.. just Christians. This Alien psyops couldn't be more transparent.
Certainly our viewpoint. Are capital waves cresting?
Pimco has called for the beginning of the Credit default cycle. Credit folks are always ahead of equity folks.
“Money, capital has a life of its own…it’s a force of nature, like gravity, like the oceans it flows where it wants to flow” ~ Maxwell Emory -
Understanding both the power of compound interest and the difficulty of getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things.”
— Charlie Munger
My First purchase of SpaceX will be in 10 months.
All IPOs trade in a similar trend.
Shocking stats:
- Most IPOs drop 50% after going live. Look at $CAVA $RDDT $ALAB $CRWV $CART $CBRS
- Some drop further to 70-80%, look at $HOOD $PLTR
- And some never recover: $MBLY $CRCL $KLAR
One of the most important things Ive learned in trading is:
Focusing on stocks that are in the upper right hand corner of your screen
Not stocks trying to bottom.
Not stocks "that look cheap."
Not stocks that are down 80%.
The biggest winners are usually making new highs, holding above key moving averages, and showing persistent relative strength.
Our brains are trained to look for "deals", on stocks that are way oof the highs and lagging...
But when you start training you eyes to look for stocks that are leading, you'll start seeing that they are leading for a reason...
The best stocks go higher for a reason.
This changed the way I scanned the market...
I know scan for:
-52 week highs
-Stocks that doubled over 52 weeks
-Above the 21 EMA and 50 SMA
-Relative strength vs. the market
-Accumulation volume
-Strong sectors and themes
These stocks create my larger watchlist that I review each day for setups, in the stocks/groups that are the strongest....
Instead of trading A+ setups in lagging groups/sectors
Major support in Silver comes in at $54
Here is how the dynamics of price behavior works:
Late comer bulls who bought >$90 missed the top and have sworn to themselves that they will never sell out
In fact, they have stated their intent to buy more at $65 and more at $60
They will mark the bottom by puking out their positions below $60 swearing to never trade Silver again
This is how bottoms are made every time in every market be it Silver or Bitcoin or Soybeans or Sugar or the S&Ps
$SI_F #silver