Vort Research

Independent equity research. Evaluating market opportunities on the reality of the data — leaving the noise behind.

[Vort Research @vortresearch]

Wegovy’s pill launch is working.

5M+ prescriptions in 30 weeks.

But with major U.S. price cuts coming in 2027, the real question is: **can volume offset pricing pressure?**

Full analysis → Vort Research https://t.co/G78Xhjob1N

[Vort Research @vortresearch]

🚨 Bitcoin ETF flows are turning aggressive.

By mid-July, Bitcoin ETFs were -$5.8B YTD.

Today: +$934M.

Last week alone:
🟠 BTC ETFs: +$2.4B — biggest inflow since Oct. 2025
🔷 ETH ETFs: +$690M
🟣 SOL ETFs: +$188M
🏦 BlackRock IBIT: +$1.2B
Yet BTC is still around $84,400 — roughly 33% below its $126,296 ATH.
Capital is flowing back in while price remains far below the peak.
That divergence is worth watching.

[Vort Research @vortresearch]

🚨 The U.S. Air Force just more than DOUBLED a contract for a drone that can fly for 80 consecutive hours.

The stock behind it? $7.64. And 41% of the float is short.

$ONDS 🧵👇

— 1/ ULTRA contract (DZYNE, now part of Ondas):

Initial value: $39.6M
Newly signed modification: +$46.1M
Total: $85.6M
Expiration: March 2031

A 117% increase in one move.

— 2/ What is ULTRA?

A Group 5 reconnaissance drone built from a commercial sport glider.

➡️ 80+ hours of continuous flight
➡️ MQ-9 Reaper: ~27 hours
It costs a fraction of the Reaper while staying airborne roughly 3× longer.

— 3/ Why does it matter?

The USAF is already using it “with excellent results” in real-world operations and sees it as a low-cost complement to General Atomics’ Reaper.

The Pentagon doesn't just want a few expensive drones anymore.

It wants large numbers of affordable drones.

— 4/ The risks (not hiding them):

$85M over 5 years doesn't transform the balance sheet by itself

41% short interest = extreme volatility in both directions
Small-cap = potential dilution
Short squeeze or trap?

The market decides Monday.

— 5/ The real question:

Is the future of defense dominated by giants like $LMT and $NOC…

or by small players build

[Vort Research @vortresearch]

What to watch Monday morning:

1️⃣ Brent opening: an upside gap = the market is pricing in continued deadlock

2️⃣ Official U.S. response through mediators: Tehran says it has not received one yet

3️⃣ European oil stocks vs. U.S. refiners

If Brent holds above $100 with volumes increasing, the risk premium is political, not physical.

[Vort Research @vortresearch]

Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days.

Trump said no. 🚫

Oil opens Monday with this news 👇

📩 Tehran’s offer (September 25):

7-day ceasefire
Strait reopened and nuclear talks resumed
In exchange: U.S. naval blockade lifted, frozen assets released, oil sanctions eased

🇺🇸 Trump’s response (September 26):
“That deal is not acceptable.”
“They want to reopen it because they are dying.”
According to the WSJ, Trump also privately said he expects new strikes after the November midterm elections.
Meanwhile, the numbers tell a story almost nobody is watching:

🛢️ Oil flows out of the Gulf have doubled in less than a month → ~13 million barrels/day

⚓ 29 ships transited the Strait in a single night, escorted by the U.S. Navy — now also during daylight hours

💸 Cost to move a barrel: $30–40, excluding military costs

📉 But volumes remain below pre-war levels

The war is approaching its eighth month.

Brent remains above $100.

The market paradox:

➡️ No deal = the Brent risk premium stays elevated

➡️ More barrels moving under U.S. escort = supply still increases

Who benefits if the deadlock continues?

Producers with Brent-linked crude, maritime shipping and defense.

Who gets squeezed?

Refiners and airlines, hit by higher fuel costs.

So what actually determines the price of oil:

The negotiating table… or the U.S. Navy? 👇

#Oil #Hormuz #Iran #Brent #Markets #Investing

[Vort Research @vortresearch]

🚨 GLOBAL WEALTH INEQUALITY IS GETTING EXTREME

The top 10% now own 75% of global wealth.

The bottom 50% owns just 2%.

And the U.S. is among the most unequal advanced economies, with the top 10% controlling roughly 70% of wealth.

Now comes AI.

IMF research suggests AI could widen wealth inequality further, because the biggest gains may flow to those who own capital and the technologies themselves.

AI can increase productivity and create enormous wealth.

But the key question is:

Who owns the machines?

The AI revolution may not just reshape jobs.

It could reshape who owns the future.

[Vort Research @vortresearch]

🚨 THE S&P 500 IS HIDING A PROBLEM

The average U.S. stock is struggling.

The ratio between the S&P 500 Equal Weight and the traditional S&P 500 has fallen to around 1.11 — one of its lowest levels in decades.

The divergence is getting extreme:

📉 Equal Weight S&P 500: -4.4% over the period
📈 S&P 500: +0.8%
The index is rising.

But the average stock isn’t.

Why?

Because a relatively small group of mega-cap companies — heavily concentrated in AI and technology — is doing a huge amount of the heavy lifting.

This creates a dangerous illusion:

The S&P 500 can keep hitting highs while market breadth continues deteriorating.

AI is not just driving an investment boom.

It is increasingly driving the INDEX itself.

The question now is:

How long can the broader market lag while AI keeps carrying the S&P 500?

#SP500 #Stocks #AI #Markets #Investing

[Vort Research @vortresearch]

Nike was worth $179.

Today, it’s worth roughly $36. 📉

-80% from its 2021 peak.
-40% in 2026 alone.
And on Friday, Bank of America doubled down: Downgraded Nike from Neutral to SELL, with a $30 price target. 🧵👇

Here’s what BofA sees going wrong:

Lifestyle (Sportswear, Jordan) is stagnant

China -17%, with local brands taking market share
Wholesale is growing faster than actual sales → inventories are building
Dividend payout ratio estimated at over 100% of earnings
Turnaround pushed back another year: now FY2028
The craziest part?

Analyst sentiment toward Nike is at its lowest level in at least 25 years.

And this is where it gets interesting.

When EVERYONE is bearish, all it takes is one “less bad” quarter for a violent rebound.

But it could also be the beginning of a textbook value trap.

📅 Earnings: October 1, after market close.

What are you doing with $NKE ?

🟢 Buying the fear
🔴 Falling knife, staying out
🟡 Waiting for the numbers

#Nike #NKE #Stocks #Investing

[Vort Research @vortresearch]

🚨 McDonald’s $MCD is having a consumer problem.

U.S. comparable sales grew just 0.8% in Q2 — but guest counts declined.

The company is still growing the average check. It’s just getting fewer people through the door.

Why?

💸 Lower-income consumers are pulling back on restaurant spending
🍔 Value deals haven’t been executed effectively
📱 Fewer digital promotions hurt traffic
📉 July and August U.S. sales were slightly negative
So the real question isn’t:
“Did Americans stop eating McDonald’s?”
It’s:

“Did McDonald’s stop feeling cheap enough?”

That distinction could matter a lot for $MCD.

[Vort Research @vortresearch]

The numbers that matter:
📉 Stock -16% from its 52-week high ($1,096)
📊 Below its 200-day average (~$960)
🏬 33 new warehouses planned for FY27, capex ~$7.5B
⛽ Gas: record volumes, comps up ~30%+
Nobody questions the quality. The price is another story.

[Vort Research @vortresearch]

Costco sold $297 billion of merchandise last year.

Gross margin on all that stuff? 11%.

Yet net income was $9.2 billion. So where does the money come from?

The card in your wallet. 🧾

Membership fees FY2026: $5.9 billion.
Almost pure profit.
84.1 million paid members.
US/Canada renewal rate: 92.3%.

Costco isn't a retailer.
It's a subscription with a warehouse attached.
Quarter just reported:

Revenue $93.9B (+11.2%)
EPS $6.75 vs $5.87 (+15%, incl. a one-off $0.15 from tariff refunds)

Digital sales +20%

Stock +2.9% on Friday
But here's the catch 👇
The stock trades at ~44x earnings.
Earnings yield: ~2.3%.
The 10-year Treasury pays 5.2%.
And the 2024 fee hike is fading: membership fee growth has slowed to +7%.

Is the best business model in retail worth 44x earnings when "risk-free" pays more than double?

Would you buy it at $922? 👇
$COST

[Vort Research @vortresearch]

🇺🇸 BREAKING: A federal appeals court has upheld the Pentagon’s designation of Anthropic as a national-security “supply chain risk” in a 2–1 ruling.

Claude can now remain excluded from Pentagon systems and Defense Department contracts.

The key issue?

Anthropic’s built-in restrictions prevent Claude from performing certain tasks the Pentagon considers necessary for lawful military operations — including lethal autonomous warfare and mass surveillance.

This is bigger than one court case.

It raises a fundamental question for the AI industry:

Who ultimately controls an AI model’s capabilities — the government deploying it, or the company that builds it?

Anthropic is considering further legal options.

And with a potential IPO ahead, this could become one of the most consequential battles in the history of frontier AI.

[Vort Research @vortresearch]

🚨 BREAKING: The U.S. and China just agreed to reduce tariffs on roughly $30B of non-sensitive goods in each direction — while creating a new channel for AI-related incidents.

This is bigger than tariffs.

The world’s two largest AI powers are now establishing a direct communication mechanism for incidents involving “Super Intelligence.”

AI competition is no longer just about who builds the most powerful models.

It is becoming a geopolitical issue.

Washington and Beijing are now building guardrails around the technology that could define the next decade.

[Vort Research @vortresearch]

🚨 BREAKING: The U.S. and China just agreed to reduce tariffs on roughly $30B of non-sensitive goods in each direction — while creating a new channel for AI-related incidents.

This is bigger than tariffs.

The world’s two largest AI powers are now establishing a direct communication mechanism for incidents involving “Super Intelligence.”

AI competition is no longer just about who builds the most powerful models.

It is becoming a geopolitical issue.

Washington and Beijing are now building guardrails around the technology that could define the next decade.

[Vort Research @vortresearch]

🚨 BREAKING: The U.S. and China just agreed to reduce tariffs on roughly $30B of goods per side — while creating a new channel to handle AI-related incidents.

This is bigger than tariffs.

The world’s two largest AI powers are now establishing a direct communication mechanism for AI incidents with national-security implications.

AI competition is no longer just about who builds the most powerful models.

It is becoming a geopolitical issue.

And Washington and Beijing are now building guardrails around it.

[Vort Research @vortresearch]

🚨 The US 10-year Treasury yield just hit 5.22%, its highest since 2007.

The Fed just HIKED, and markets see a 70% chance of another hike in October.

Yet the S&P 500 closed the week up 2% at 7,743.

Who's right: bonds or stocks? 👇

[Vort Research @vortresearch]

🚨 ORACLE $ORCL JUST SENT A WARNING TO THE AI TRADE

Oracle’s AI data-center buildout is facing a major test after the company invoked force majeure on a New Mexico project.

The market sees a risk.

But there’s another angle:

AI demand isn’t disappearing.

The bottleneck may be shifting to power, data centers and infrastructure.

That could create opportunities for the companies supplying the physical backbone of the AI boom.

The next AI winners may not be the AI models.

They may be the companies building what AI needs to run.

#ORCL #AI #Stocks #Investing #DataCenters

[Vort Research @vortresearch]

🚨 JAPAN JUST BROKE A 30-YEAR BOND TABOO

Japan’s 30-year JGB yield just hit 4.223% — a record high.

For decades, Japan was the world’s source of ultra-cheap capital.

That regime is now reversing.

Why markets should care:

🇯🇵 Higher domestic yields could pull Japanese capital back home
🇺🇸 Potential pressure on U.S. Treasuries
💴 Yen carry trades become less attractive
📉 Higher global discount rates can pressure long-duration assets

This isn’t just a Japan story.

It could be a global liquidity story.

Watch Japan.

[Vort Research @vortresearch]

$ORCL just got hit after Oracle invoked “force majeure” on its New Mexico AI data center project.

Why could this create an opportunity?

Because the selloff is pricing in execution risk around Oracle’s massive AI infrastructure buildout.

If the issue is contained and Oracle continues converting strong AI demand into revenue, today’s fear could eventually create a better entry valuation.

But I’m not buying the dip blindly.

I’m watching for stabilization, confirmation that the broader AI buildout remains on track, and a price that offers a better risk/reward.

The question isn’t whether ORCL fell.

It’s whether the market is pricing a temporary execution problem — or a fundamental change to the AI thesis.

$ORCL $AI #Oracle #AI #Stocks #Investing

[Vort Research @vortresearch]

$ORCL just got hit after Oracle invoked “force majeure” on its New Mexico AI data center project.

Why could this create an opportunity?

Because the selloff is pricing in execution risk around Oracle’s massive AI infrastructure buildout.

If the issue is contained and Oracle continues converting strong AI demand into revenue, today’s fear could eventually create a better entry valuation.

But I’m not buying the dip blindly.

I’m watching for stabilization, confirmation that the broader AI buildout remains on track, and a price that offers a better risk/reward.

The question isn’t whether ORCL fell.

It’s whether the market is pricing a temporary execution problem — or a fundamental change to the AI thesis.

$ORCL $AI #Oracle #AI #Stocks #Investing