VR

CFA, MBA

[VR @vram2000]

@Biohazard3737 Most of AI advancements are fueled by AI. Human input is shrinking.

[TechCrunch @TechCrunch]

Perplexity employee who worked on Comet launches an AI browser aimed at knowledge work https://t.co/pugJ1ZdDi7

[VR @vram2000]

@mukund Lack of meritocracy, extreme corruption, chaotic traffic…

[VR @vram2000]

@mukund @Delta No option to add baggage in economy

[VR @vram2000]

@Biohazard3737 @TurtleNeckCap This one has for 2025. Harvard should do a case study on Pabrai’s marketing prowess. Both in Marketing hall of fame and investing hall of shame

[VR @vram2000]

@Biohazard3737 @TurtleNeckCap Amazing track record
Almost $1B AUM

[VR @vram2000]

@fchollet @walnutavevalue When Coca Cola was getting popular there were thousands of clones. You could see them in their museum. With branding and distribution they gained market share. KO is still around. Who is going to fund massive SG&A for these vibe coded softwares?

[VR @vram2000]

@Biohazard3737 What happens if gdp growth is 8% and unemp 12%? Slowing or taxing capex is the only option

[Chris Hoeger @DataDInvesting]

$DUOL back in the $270s. Down 4.2% yesterday and down another 6.1% today. Here is what I think is happening and what I will be looking for in the data to see if I'm right (or wrong).

I don't get all the cool reports that institutions buy, but here is my guess as to what is happening:

There is probably data showing that downloads are slowing and institutions are worried about their growth. People are selling out as a result.

I think there is probably a fundamental shift in where their growth is coming from. Previously, growth came from new users. I think they are pivoting and greater growth is now coming from monetization of existing users. Here is why I think they are focusing on reengaging and monetizing existing users:

1) The shift from hearts to energy should give a meaningful uplift in subscriber per DAU. This will lead to some churn because free power users can't game the system to do as many lessons as they previously could with hearts. I've experienced this myself. Those power users will now convert at higher rates or churn off because they feel jaded. But people who are spending 20+ min per day should probably be paying.

How I'll see this in the data: Higher Subcribers/DAUs

2) I am guessing that Chess is almost certainly reactivating a dormant set of their existing user base

How I'll see this in the data: Higher DAUs/MAUs

3) They recently announced "Duolingo Ads", a new in-house advertising platform that creates branded content featuring their characters. They are monetizing their characters as brand ambassadors, which should be a meaningful lift to their ad revenue and much greater monetization of all their free users. It should also be less intrusive and more authentic to the platform, creating a better free user experience. It also means they get 100% of the ad spend rather than paying a cut to $GOOG or $META's ad networks.

How I'll see this in the data: Higher ad revenue per MAU and per non-subscribing DAU

4) Moving toward direct subscription payments outside of the $AAPL App Store and $GOOG Play Store means 30% greater revenue for anyone who signs up that way and the margins on that 30% revenue growth are 100%.

How I'll see this in the data: Higher revenue growth per new subscriber

I think there is a business strategy shift going on that the market is missing because it's backwards-looking and doesn't see the pivot that is happening in real time.

Why I might be wrong:

Google Translate's new beta language learning and other apps might be eating away market share. I don't think that will happen, but it's possible I'm wrong and their moat is being eaten away by competition.

How I'll see this in the data: Lower revenue growth or lower margins.

[VR @vram2000]

@breadcrumbsre Does it include WMT dividends?

[VR @vram2000]

@Biohazard3737 Most biotechs have almost zero or negative FCF in first 5 years and almost all comes in later years. NPV is very sensitive to this.

[VR @vram2000]

Great job @federalreserve You've dropped the ball again. Watch U-6, Temp help, Employment level....

[VR @vram2000]

@Biohazard3737 Tarangiri?

[VR @vram2000]

@elonmusk Hey Elon, it is fucking annoying when you keep refreshing the page while I’m reading a tweet. So no one noticed?

[VR @vram2000]

@Biohazard3737 This is why getting the right kind of clients is of paramount importance. The impatience & short term focus of clients get transmitted to the PM.

[VR @vram2000]

@Biohazard3737 VC is Powerball lottery for folks wearing expensive suits

[VR @vram2000]

$MSTR is a self-fulfilling prophesy (addition to S&P, debt/equity to buy BTC) sitting on top of another self-fulfilling prophesy of BTC (adoption by corp treasury, retail, SWF)

[VR @vram2000]

@Biohazard3737 Please look at Mohnish Pabrai’s last 20 years of massive underperformance against S&P. His cumulative underperformance is more than 200%. He still manages $800MM, gives great talks and shows pics with Munger. You can fool some people all the time

[VR @vram2000]

@MaxJacobsCFA @beowulfcapital I did the same, used snapshot;

[VR @vram2000]

@ritholtz No. (Own Y)
1. Doesn’t feel luxurious 2. Poor suspension 3. Persistent a/c bad odor issue 4. Musk’s online antics sowing hatred