Left Wall Street career in early 30s to build an independent consulting/advisory/venture practice and spend some years in Europe @thejunteau @thegoodsletter
New blogpost: Fable-5.1 can hide secret messages in benign images.
We gave the image to another Fable in a fresh session and simply asked: "Is there a hidden message in this image?"
It recovered the exact message without being told how it was hidden.
Wake up.
Every profession deemed white-collar, the middle class dream, is about to be decimated by AI, at a much faster pace than anticipated, with monstrous social consequences.
Level 4 (1M–10M) really is the no-man's-land of wealth.
For example, going from $100k to $300k can change your life. You can quit a job, move somewhere else, or take a chance on something of your own.
Going from $5M to $5.2M? You're richer, but you don't notice the increase anymore in the same way. This is where the diminishing returns start to show.
Back in 2021, when I went from $500k to $1m, I felt like on top of the world. It was a big change for me. A little backstory: in Feb 2021, I quit my 9-5 job with $500k NW, and it felt like a huge achievement. I knew it wasn’t enough to live off forever, but it was enough to dare to bet on myself.
During the years after 21’ there have been periods where my NW has increased a lot, and periods where it went a bit down or barely went up at all.
So I can very much relate to what Nick says: at some point, you could “work” twice as hard and barely notice the difference in your life. Your portfolio grows. But the extra money buys you less, while the time it costs you stays the same.
This is where I think a lot of people in crypto get stuck. You know how to make money. But unless you increase the risk, your NW will only go up linearly.
Because you might have to risk money you no longer want to lose. So you end up in the middle, the 7-figure hell (no man's land).
Imagine spending another year glued to crypto to make an extra $200k on a $5M portfolio (4% increase).
Don’t misunderstand me, that’s a lot of money, but many people don’t want to risk the big gains they’ve already earned, and since they don’t, their NW will barely move, and they’re forever trapped in the 7-fig hell.
I have a friend who’s worked at a sort of IT consulting company for almost 10 years.
Makes almost $300K/year now.
But he doesn’t really do anything. Says he “manages clients” and “puts out fires” and is exceptionally good at it… that he’ll never be replaced by AI… that management just leaves him alone.
Gets 5-10% pay bump every year and works maybe 1-2 hours a day top. He’ll take vacation with his family and not even tell anyone at work… all remote now. Says he can handle any issue from his phone.
I fear the future of W2 / white collar employment is just going to be putting bodies in seats based on some combination of social currency or popularity, corporate inertia, and “culture”… basically a mass UBI scheme disguised as meritocracy.
Might be cooked. Not sure!
Looking at houses for sale back in the states... NJ/NY/PA suburbs... and it's fascinating that homes are selling at all at these $1,000,000+ prices when they were $500-600K pre-COVID.
One one hand, you can just suck it up and pay 6-7% rates on a massive mortgage.
On the other hand, some folks seem resigned to the idea of just buying all-cash... being extremely house poor as a result... and betting/hoping that two things happen in their favor.... that the stock market stays sideways for longer (i.e. that they don't miss out on equity upside deploying all their liquidity into a house) and that rates will eventually fall back down to the 3-4% range and they'll quickly refinance.
Both strategies are painful.
Who is buying these properties? and which strategy?
Why not just rent instead until conditions improve? Because they won't?
@MAKRealtyDE Mortgage payments are like-for-like ~45% higher than in 2021-2022... but incomes are not 45% higher... so the math doesn't work (for most people).