Nirvan

[Nirvan @vrodzub]

I hear short term interest rate positions are large (speculators betting on a decline).
#Powell today hinted, rate will stay where its for now but its unclear whether more hikes will be needed. Traders are thinkin "the rate cuts are coming". I dont have a strong view on this 🔚

[Nirvan @vrodzub]

Chart is the 2 year #TreasuryYield. The red line is roughly the path the market is pricing for where the 2 year yield should go.
Most analysts (and hedge funds) believe the path will be more in line with the white arrow. ⤵️

[Nirvan @vrodzub]

@rosariovillalb Los datos reales al 1Q2023 son:
#AmericanAirlines 129.700 empleados para 1432 aeronaves (90 x avion). Vs
#AerolineasArgentinas 11.983 para 83 aviones (144 x avion) 60% mas.

[Nirvan @vrodzub]

That is not the case in most of the country if you check the main the real estate websites (Zillow and Realtor). It is still the case in some special suburbs of big cities where there is still a lot of demand. But it is a matter of time until this becomes a nationwide issue. 🔚

[Nirvan @vrodzub]

Chart is 3 months average and it is at Lehman's collapse level. Today's number was weaker than expected (3.79 instead of 3.90)
At the time of the #Lehman collapse the #Fed did #QE1. Then, when housing collapsed further in mid 2010 the Fed implemented QE2 a few months later. ↩️

[Nirvan @vrodzub]

I suppose this is the first instance ever when the housing market is frozen and the Fed is still tightening (QT), so I would not be surprised to see even lower numbers. Some may say there are fewer transactions because fewer houses are available for sale. ↩️

[Nirvan @vrodzub]

@MateconMote Un grupo de personas, que no saben para que sirven. El gobierno debería dar planes sociales de psicología para que la gente recupere el autoestima que los.K les robaron

[Nirvan @vrodzub]

@morapetraglia Jajajjajajaj tranqui! No se te pide que apoyes, pero por lo menos no moletes a los adultos mientras aprendes de lo que se discute

[Nirvan @vrodzub]

@CarlosMaslaton Carlos, lo mejor que hiciste fue sacar los dolares cuando todos apostaban al peso, no la juegues de técnico ji de que tenes calle, porque lo unico que te sale bien es manipular al 80% para sacar tu ventaja. #ventajitamalsaton

[Nirvan @vrodzub]

@PregoneroL Rompete e orto laburando para llegar a fin de mes, como el 40% de los argentinos, y después vas a poder dar las lecciones de filosofia que quieras, mientras tantl quedate viendo documentales en tu casa agradeciendole al supremo que tenes un ingreso

[Nirvan @vrodzub]

@CarlosMaslaton Mas patético que lali quedandose en Argentina

[Nirvan @vrodzub]

Traders are pricing the first cut by the middle of next year and the forward rate by end of #2024 is a full point below current levels.🔚

[Nirvan @vrodzub]

CHART is Goldman's Financial Conditions Index. A higher number means things are tighter. After the market rally since the last FOMC on Nov 1st the FCI is back to the pre-Covid average. Financial Conditions are not particularly tight despite all the tightening. ↪️

[Nirvan @vrodzub]

Today the minutes of the last FOMC showed the Fed is still far away from thinking of easing. Adding the easing in financial conditions since then the #Fed is most probably even more sure that easing is much further down the road than the market believes. ↪️

[Nirvan @vrodzub]

Traders are pricing the first cut by the middle of next year and the forwars rate by enf of 2024 is afull point below current levels. 🔚

[Nirvan @vrodzub]

Today the minutes of the last FOMC showed the Fed is still far away from thinking of easing. Adding the easing in financial conditions since then the #Fed is most probably even more sure that easing is much further down the road than the market believes. ↪️

[Nirvan @vrodzub]

@gonzaloherediao El papel de HDP te da para el Oscar!!! O sos asi?

[Nirvan @vrodzub]

@GugaLusto @JMilei Agarrate fuerte, que ahora que se te cayo Larreta y Massa, quedas pedaleando en el aire trucho

[Nirvan @vrodzub]

@PamelaDav Ese es el problema cuando ejercitas un musculo atrofiado... pensas que venis bien, pero te sobregiras y te quedas sin ram rapido.

[Nirvan @vrodzub]

@pane_antonela El problema es que te falto estudiar 3 anos mas, y trabajar aplicandolo!