vwu.eth

Down the #crypto rabbithole

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@Unrevisionist @truflation it tracks housing though. that's a big part of services no?

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@probablymato @truflation please don't get me wrong, I think it's a very interesting project and directionally smart. But feels a bit more like a pet project

[vwu.eth @vwucrypto]

@probablymato @truflation I would take truflation with a grain of salt. It's a very short duration data set (which means there could be significant biases). Additionally the founders have 3-4 jobs and don't spend a lot of time explaining the key differences to give comfort.

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@0xHamz You kind of answered it yourself. The SEC is necessary because gambling is the problem…

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@theFinnishSisu @Jack_Raines @GRDecter Yes it did… thats the only way you get $1trn interest this yr

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@TheRealChudz @GavinSBaker I think he's implying NVDA? secular trend with inventory drain going on

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@GavinSBaker what is LLM?

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@GavinSBaker Example = FIVN. enterprise business 5x LTV-to-CAC. shown margin expansion. number cut for 2023 is 16% growth that is extremely "conservative". Easy private equity buyout given enterprise, low churn and low penetration. Avaya just went BK too so seats up for grabs

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@GavinSBaker Would buy SAAS where management has cut hard into 2023. Risk-reward of rate peaking in your favor now. Private equity $'s on table with new TB and Vista funds. People will buy beat and raise once deck is cleared and macro will boost returns

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@GavinSBaker @TheRealChudz If talking about Micron, that feels like a Q1'23 trade. Looking at history would say now given 3rd cut, but we are also coming off pandemic / overbuild situation and semi crunch like we've never seen. Number washout most likely Q2 so buy in March Q1'23

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@chasesamuel56 @BillyM2k @WatcherGuru No ... it isn't. That's like saying the financial crisis put Bernie Madoff out of business. More like it exposed the fraud

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@CathieDWood can you talk to wage/demographic issues. It’s the key reason people are fearing inflation sticks. But you’re not addressing the most important variable.

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@cheddaverse @adamkapit @HukAleksandra That’s fine if you don’t borrow against your house… if you do that you’ll be a forced seller locking in the bottom

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@AlgodTrading @Tree_of_Alpha Well $4bn was “loaned” to employees… who just spent it for fun

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@boazweinstein Reason it wasn't caught is no regulation

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@boazweinstein It would be equivalent to Morgan Stanley Prime (since FTX custodies) owns Archegos and let them lever up to a point where it blew the whole thing apart

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@StevenBeschloss The U.S. has more impact than you are implying. U.S. stimulus and fiscal policy leads world policy. For example, when we raise interest rates, it crushes foreign currency. Since most commodities are USD denominated, their inflation explodes. So yes domestic policy DID impact it

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@NoLieWithBTC @joy4ok This is honestly such an idiotic comparison from both sides. The key would be to analyze policy and change in crime. There are so many other variables given arbitrary division of state lines

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@0xHamz Counter force for continued inflation is
1) Demographic shifts
2) COVID workforce exit
3) 40 year trend of globalization (e.g. China as global manufacturer) to one of nationalization

[vwu.eth @vwucrypto]

@0xHamz All of it comes to a head at the same time and you get a big reversal. Could be ugly.