It is accretive or dilutive acquisition of $ROKU from $FOXA?
We see a Fox is buying Roku for ~$23.7B ($96 cash + 0.9693 FOXA shares = $160/share headline). The gross spread sits at 5.68% โ decent but not a layup.
Financing is locked, votes are locked. The only thing standing between arbs and their carry is the DOJ.
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Bottoms-up close prob 76% vs. market-implied 74% โ a thin but positive edge (+2.51% EV).
The strategic rationale is real (Fox escapes big-tech distribution dependency), but the pure financials are ugly: deal ROIC of 4.21% vs. ~8% WACC, 18-year payback.
This is a platform bet disguised as an acquisition. Watch the HSR filing in July โ that's when the real game begins.
$EXFY filed an SC TO-I/A this morning for a Dutch auction tender that closed last night. Preliminary result: 6,140,642 shares at $1.20, total cost ~$7.37M, about 6.9% of Class A common stock outstanding.
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