OsakaNYW

[OsakaNYW @VynusN]

@aleabitoreddit “In China, there is a saying that goes: ‘The benevolent have no enemies.’”

「仁者無敵」出自中國古代哲學思想（常見於《孟子》），核心意思是「仁慈的人沒有敵人」或「仁愛之心無堅不摧」。

送給你❤️🙏

[OsakaNYW @VynusN]

@Katzone99 @PassionAndLuck 來自一篇 ETNet 的公開分析報道：EchoStar 去年向 SpaceX 和 AT&T 合共出售價值 220 億美元 的頻譜資產，公司預計交易完成後將獲得約 120 億美元淨現金，但同時需承擔 50 至 70 億美元 的網絡設備拆卸成本。到最後剩下的只有大約50億美元左右。所以，你太過於樂觀了吧？

[OsakaNYW @VynusN]

@AnastaciaW47729 香港🇭🇰

[Reflection🪩 @0xReflection]

My 96-year-old grandpa has spent nearly 72 years studying financial markets.

He invented 12 rules every beginner should use.

If you care about your future, you MUST learn them:

1. Price falls 5% ➮ Hold
2. Price falls 15% ➮ Buy 10%
3. Price falls 25% ➮ Buy 20%
4. Price falls 40% ➮ Buy 30%
4. Price falls 60% ➮ Buy 40%
5. Price rises 5% ➮ Hold
6. Price rises 20% ➮ Hold
7. Price rises 25% ➮ Sell 10%
8. Price rises 40% ➮ Sell 20%
9. Price rises 50% ➮ Sell 35%
10. Price rises 70% ➮ Sell 40%
11. Price rises 100% ➮ Sell 90%
12. Always keep 10% as a moonbag

Many people will wish they had followed me sooner

[HN @PassionAndLuck]

$SATS NAV Analysis

The investment thesis is simple.

$SATS has meaningful exposure to SpaceX / SPCX.

My base NAV assumptions:

• SPCX ownership equivalent: 2.2%

• SATS basic shares outstanding: 298M

• Fully diluted shares after convertible note conversion: 348M
I use 348M shares in the calculations below.

• Cash proceeds from spectrum sales to $T and $SPCX:
Approximately $22.65B from $T
Approximately $9.0B in cash from $SPCX
Total: approximately $31.65B

• Net cash assuming the convertible notes convert into equity: approximately $10.96B

• Regulatory / escrow / contingent liability haircut: -$2.5B

• Net cash after haircut: approximately $8.46B

• Residual business value: $10B
2026 Q1 operating income of approximately $300M × 4 quarters × 8x multiple

Formula:

SATS NAV
= {SPCX market cap × 2.2% + net cash after haircut + residual business value} / 348M shares

Results:

SATS NAV by SPCX market cap:

• SPCX $2.0T → SATS approximately $180
• SPCX $2.25T → SATS approximately $196
• SPCX $2.5T → SATS approximately $211
• SPCX $2.75T → SATS approximately $227
• SPCX $3.0T → SATS approximately $243

The important point is that this is not a normal NAV discount trade.

Even if SPCX prices its IPO around $1.75T, the actual initial float could be extremely thin.

A large portion of the IPO shares will likely be pre-allocated to institutions and retail investors. That means the actual number of shares available in the open market on IPO day may be far smaller than the headline IPO size.

The real question is not:

“How many SPCX shares will be issued?”

The real question is:

“How many dollars’ worth of SPCX shares will actually be available to buy in the open market on IPO day?”

If the open-market float on day one is limited, and global institutions, retail investors, Musk-related capital, AI funds, and space-theme capital all rush in, SPCX could temporarily trade at $2.5T–$3.0T or higher.

On top of that, the possibility of early Nasdaq-100 inclusion should not be ignored.

Nasdaq has recently changed its rules in a way that makes it easier for mega-cap IPOs to be added to the index earlier. If SPCX shows massive market capitalization and sufficient liquidity immediately after listing, it could become a candidate for index inclusion without waiting for the normal annual rebalance.

That said, if SPCX has a very low float, it will likely be affected by float-adjusted weighting and index weight limitations. So Nasdaq-100 inclusion alone should not be used to justify the entire thesis.

Still, the expectation of index inclusion could trigger front-running from institutions, ETFs, and event-driven funds.

If that happens, SPCX supply-demand could become even tighter, and SATS NAV would re-rate in real time.

Imagine IPO day.

SPCX indicative opening prices keep moving higher and higher, but the stock has not opened yet.

Investors are staring at the screen, unable to buy SPCX.

Then they look sideways and see that $SATS, which has exposure to 2.2% of SPCX, is already trading.

At SPCX $3T, my SATS NAV is approximately $243/share.

However, in a pure supply-demand-driven market, SATS may trade above NAV, not below NAV.

If SATS trades at a 10–30% premium to NAV:

• SPCX $2.5T → SATS approximately $230–275
• SPCX $3.0T → SATS approximately $270–315

And that is before considering short covering.

[OsakaNYW @VynusN]

@gamestop The CEO like this is a disaster.

[CryptoDanta | 蛋挞 Trader @CryptoDanta]

交易的本质，就是等。
上涨不追，等回调；回调不抄，等支撑。
只在信号确认后出手，耐心比预判更重要。

[Sun Liao @sunxliao]

I plan to buy a LOT of Bitcoin soon.

Last 2 times $BTC got a blue diamond:

2020 ~ flew from $9K to $69K

2023 ~ ran from $23K to $125K

2026 ~ wants $200K to $300K IMO

Trying to time $IBIT and $MSTR bottom too.

I'll update the moment I see it... 🔷🫡

[CryptoDanta | 蛋挞 Trader @CryptoDanta]

大多数人以为交易是买低卖高，其实完全错了。

真正的交易只有一句话：

用概率，对抗不确定性。
能看懂这句话的人，才算入门。

[金尘马 @jinchenma_ai]

太太太太准了！

不光我准，让我老婆，我父母，丈母娘老丈人都测了，都准爆了！

之前用AI算过命不准的愿意是提示词的退问题，这个提示词让AI根据这一堆书再算，就准的一批。

实测下来，用Grok开Agent模式效果最好。

感谢@sichen250639 橙子的推荐

提示词我放评论区了👇

[Sac @Saccc_c]

想做短视频副业，但不想每晚熬夜剪片

与其开会员堆一堆软件，不如直接试试这四个能串起工作流的Github项目

从生成、剪辑、翻译到多平台发布

1、视频生成：MoneyPrinterTurbo
输入一个主题，就能先把文案、配音、字幕和素材初稿跑出来，适合快速搭建一条视频框架。
🔗：https://t.co/TSEa4khDi0

2、视频剪辑：FunClip
先识别视频内容，再按文本片段剪视频，能大幅缩减视频剪辑时间。
🔗：https://t.co/z7skSdAajk

3、视频翻译：KrillinAl
做视频翻译、配音、多语言适配，适合把一条内容扩成多语种版本（Tiktok、ins等）。
🔗：https://t.co/hHDBThGQ1y

4、多平台发布：social-auto-upload
前面都做完了，最后一公里别再手动重复发。这个项目可以实现抖音、小红书、B站多平台分发。
🔗 ：https://t.co/jSi7TU964l

如果想了解更多的赚钱项目，请看我收录的Github赚钱项目列表。

[AI最严厉的父亲 @dashen_wang]

https://t.co/ydNVItD1l5

[爱玩股票AiWanGuPiao @aiwangupiao]

在市场里待久了你就会发现，大多数散户其实并不适合做所谓的“左侧交易”。

简单说，就是在下跌过程中去抄底、去接飞刀，觉得价格已经很低了，不买就可惜。但问题是，市场从来不会因为你觉得便宜就立刻反转，它往往还能跌得更深、更久。

很多人一开始抄底，都是抱着“已经跌很多了”的想法，小仓位试探。但只要继续下跌，就会不断��仓，理由也很简单——越跌越便宜。结果就是，一路补仓一路被套，很快在“半山腰”就把仓位打满了。一旦后面继续下跌，就彻底失去了操作空间，只能眼睁睁看着账户缩水，既没法补仓摊成本，也舍不得割肉，最终陷入被动。

散户最大的限制在于资金和心态。资金有限，意味着你无法像机构那样分批布局、长期承受浮亏；心态不稳，则会在持续下跌中不断被情绪放大，从最初的自信满满，到后面的焦虑、怀疑，甚至恐慌割肉。

很多人并不是输在判断上，而是输在扛不住过程。更关键的一点是，真正的底部是走出来之后才能确认的，而不是提前猜出来的。你以为的“底”，很可能只是下跌途中的一个中继点。与其去赌那个不确定的位置，不如等市场自己给出信号，比如止跌企稳、成交量回升、情绪修复等。这些迹象虽然不能保证绝对安全，但至少能提高胜率。

有些人总觉得等确认之后再进场会少赚一段空间，但其实真正的行情一旦启动，不会只给你一瞬间机会。趋势是有延续性的，你完全可以在更安全的位置参与进去。相比之下，盲目抄底如果判断错误，不仅赚不到钱，还可能深度被套，得不偿失。说到底，交易不是比谁买在最低点，而是比谁活得更久、赚得更稳。与其在不确定中冒险，不如在确定性中出手。

等市场修复、趋势明朗之后再行动，哪怕少赚一点，也远比在下跌中不断试错要好得多。没行情时乱抄底，本质上就是在给市场“送钱”，甚至可以说是主动把自己送上“被收割”的位置。

[OsakaNYW @VynusN]

@maitian99 支持老師繼續發推。交易的事情有人賺，有人虧，成萬上億的人在推上，看到你有指向性的分享，肯定惹來不同意者的攻擊。所以大可不必動怒，忽視就好。你的粉絲也很多，起碼我覺得有參考價值🙏

[软苏格拉底 @Graceruansu]

https://t.co/ETFoS8WOOF

[铁柱 @TiezhuCrypto]

这个图还是蛮吓人的，历史上看，SP500和FCF（自由现金流）高度关联。但是目前，预期的者五家巨头现金流估计要断崖。

[看不懂的SOL @DtDt666]

什么时候抄底美股？我在等什么？

先给兄弟们分享几组数据：
第一，被动基金占美国基金资产55%。

第二，在S&P500里，七巨头权重高达34.3% 。

第三，美国融资买股规模达到1.226万亿美元，历史新高。

第四，基金经理现金仓位只有3.2%，几乎接近满仓了。

01，被动基金占美国基金资产55%

说人话：这意味着市场定价权正在从主动选股的基金经理，转移到被动跟踪指数的资金手里。当超过一半的资金都按规则自动买入时，指数的权重股会获得持续的被动流入，这可能推高估值，也会让市场的自我调节功能减弱。

02，标普500里，七巨头权重高达34.3%

说人话：这七家公司现在已经占到指数超过三分之一。对指数基金来说，它们是必配项；但对市场整体而言，指数的表现越来越不能代表500家公司的真实状况，而是被这几家巨头绑架。如果它们出现调整，指数会直接承压。

03，融资买股规模1.226万亿美元，创历史新高

说人话：杠杆资金是把双刃剑。这个规模创下新高，说明市场情绪确实很热，大家都在借钱参与。但杠杆也意味着脆弱性——一旦市场转向，这些资金可能会成为加速下跌的力量，因为强制平仓会引发连锁反应。

04，基金经理现金仓位只有3.5%

说人话：从历史经验看，现金仓位低通常意味着机构手里可��动的资金有限，��买的差不多都买了。如果市场继续上涨，他们还有追高的压力；但如果出现调整，他们缺乏低位补仓的子弹，反而可能需要卖出股票来应对赎回或维持流动性。

目前，市场现在处于一种比较极致的状态——资金高度集中、杠杆处在高位、机构手里现金也不多。

这种结构下，市场会出现高波动概率加大，所以我在等一个黄金坑抄底。

除此之外每日有计划的小额标普500定投保持不变。