Nemo

Top 10k 25/26
Former Top 500

[Nemo @waddrix]

feel free to, hundreds of people did the same last year & bookmarked me + prayed for my downfall.

i still finished within the top 10,000 & got a top 0.1% rank (which is a complete failure by my standards)

https://t.co/spOBnVNZAn

[DJ Prophet @djprophet]

@waddrix Saving this for later when this is an epic fail 💀

[Nemo @waddrix]

it might be hard for you to comprehend this but it takes longer for me to type my thoughts with 120wpm (top 1% typing speed) than to actually think of the strategies you seem to think need ‘sweating’

i am in the top percentile irl for things that are far more important than fpl hence why this really doesn’t take up too much mental bandwidth in my memory

[Woodsy @lukewoodso]

@waddrix @Tombrero95 Bro, you're sweating FPL a month early. There's no chance you forgot about it when you were top 500 😅

[Nemo @waddrix]

predicting DEFCON stats for players is going to be far more accurate than predicting goals & assists for players

goals & assists are heavily affected by variance whilst DEFCON has far less variance since it’s a stat which has more data as there is always a number across 38 games

this is why it makes sense to optimise for players who have good DEFCON in the past vs players who may have had a one off good season with goals & assists, especially at the start of the season where mistakes in team selection are far more detrimental

[Nemo @waddrix]

2 in midfield is naturally optimal because they made strikers too cheap this year + DEFCON is still very strong

so naturally, having 5 defenders & 3 strikers leads to 2 midfielders

and i’m not sure why you think that the defenders who got defcon last year won’t get it this year?

DEFCON is far easier to predict than goal scoring/assisting ability

[Nemo @waddrix]

they’ve made the game disgustingly easy this year

meta will be 5-2-3 with Haaland + 2 strikers between 6-7.5m, they made the strikers really cheap (Mateta, Pedro, Solanke, Wissa, DCL)

DEFCON is still disgustingly overpowered, anyone arguing against it and saying it’s overpriced is low IQ

Gabriel is still worth the money at 8m lol, he pretty much hit that by the end of last season and was still in everyone’s team

I’m 100% sure 5-2-3 will be meta. I went this formation very early last season and knew it was optimal. No other formation will come close to this.

Only players i’m undecided on:

Mosquera (if Saliba comes back etc)
Wissa (rotation risk maybe?)

plenty of time to monitor anyways

#fpl is going to be boring they really messed up

[Nemo @waddrix]

it appears that i underestimated how many midwits there are on twitter

i am very bullish on:

5-2-3
maximising DEFCON
cheap strikers
Haaland
Bruno

the specific strikers or defenders i select are not currently set in stone

but take this from someone who is consistently in the top percentile of anything I do in life, that this will 100% be the meta going forward

FPL might actually be fun this year if a large amount of people genuinely disagree with the above requirements

i have already achieved top 500, a measly top 10k finish does not satisfy my dopamine receptors

i’m honestly considering deleting the tweet because it’ll be harder for me to get #1 overall rank if i have people who copy my setup

[Nemo @waddrix]

they’ve made the game disgustingly easy this year

meta will be 5-2-3 with Haaland + 2 strikers between 6-7.5m, they made the strikers really cheap (Mateta, Pedro, Solanke, Wissa, DCL)

DEFCON is still disgustingly overpowered, anyone arguing against it and saying it’s overpriced is low IQ

Gabriel is still worth the money at 8m lol, he pretty much hit that by the end of last season and was still in everyone’s team

I’m 100% sure 5-2-3 will be meta. I went this formation very early last season and knew it was optimal. No other formation will come close to this.

Only players i’m undecided on:

Mosquera (if Saliba comes back etc)
Wissa (rotation risk maybe?)

plenty of time to monitor anyways

#fpl is going to be boring they really messed up

[Nemo @waddrix]

@FPLPapa do you have any logical reasons for why that’s the case?

i’m open to hearing them if they exist

[Nemo @waddrix]

only mid wits spend money on the bench

the most efficient way to play the game is to have the most amount of budget in your starting 11

of course i probably do have some rotation risks hence why i said the team isnt finalized, but the strategy of 5-2-3 with haaland, bruno, gabriel, 2 cheap strikers and defcon is 100% locked in

[Nemo @waddrix]

@Felix_10_games i started with Thiago GW1 last year & i can assure you that strikers are going to be extremely overpowered this year considering the fact that they’re all cheap

players like DCL, mateta, wissa, solanke etc will all have around a 40% chance to score and are around £6m

[Nemo @waddrix]

i’ll obviously adjust some players according to pre season news since some players will be prone to rotation risk

but the general skeleton of my team and my thesis for maximising defcon/cheap strikers and 5-2-3 won’t change

i’m quite surprised at how few people managed to grasp this

[Nemo @waddrix]

@Tombrero95 i was in the top 500 for a lot of last season and finished in the top 10k only because i overslept deadlines/forgot about fpl.

this game really isn’t as hard as you make it out to be

[Nemo @waddrix]

@FPLren it’s irrelevant because all that would’ve occurred was that Gabriel would’ve lost 7 points & Tarkowski would’ve lost 5 points

they would still be the best performers across the whole season even with these point deductions

[Nemo @waddrix]

@FPLren what do you mean?

[Nemo @waddrix]

mildly satisfied with this week

top 600 atm

extremely annoyed at myself - was close to doing Senesi to Van Hecke but didn’t pull the trigger

probably gonna do

Mateta to Woltemade
Senesi to Thiaw

assuming we get a decent indicator they both start

[Nemo @waddrix]

top 1.5k globally atm

haven’t posted in a while but still doing decent considering the fact i haven’t owned Semenyo this season

missed out on 11 points due to oversleeping a deadline in a previous week but it is what it is

going with welbeck over thiago last week has been a 7 point difference thus far

kinda annoying how the herd hasn’t been punished this year and have gotten very lucky (semenyo + gabriel overperformance + the fact that free hitting this week barely had edge statistically)

#1 overall rank globally is still achievable tbh though fpl is more of a side hobby for me since i don’t have as much fun playing it as i do competing in other activities in life

[Nemo @waddrix]

top 1.5k globally atm

haven’t posted in a while but still doing decent considering the fact i haven’t owned Semenyo this season

missed out on 11 points due to oversleeping a deadline in a previous week but it is what it is

going with welbeck over thiago last week has been a 7 point difference thus far

kinda annoying how the herd hasn’t been punished this year and have gotten very lucky (semenyo + gabriel overperformance + the fact that free hitting this week barely had edge statistically)

#1 overall rank globally is still achievable tbh though fpl is more of a side hobby for me since i don’t have as much fun playing it as i do competing in other activities in life

[Nemo @waddrix]

55 points

overall rank: top 3k

very disappointing week tbh, not happy at all with the performance of my assets

horrible week

i have 2 transfers to get rid of the egyptian fraud every fpl content creator told you was essential

417 people bookmarked my last tweet - most likely praying on my downfall which will never occur as long as i stay alive & breathing for the rest of the season

[Nemo @waddrix]

55 points

overall rank: top 3k

very disappointing week tbh, not happy at all with the performance of my assets

horrible week

i have 2 transfers to get rid of the egyptian fraud every fpl content creator told you was essential

417 people bookmarked my last tweet - most likely praying on my downfall which will never occur as long as i stay alive & breathing for the rest of the season

[Nemo @waddrix]

85 points

overall rank: top 4k

fpl is easier and way more fun when you think for yourself instead of placing value/importance on what content creators say

Mateta was an obvious trap & Haaland was an obvious pick from GW1, we’re entering GW5 & people are still unsure about him when he’s clearly the best asset in the game

i never started with salah but legit only transferred him in on wildcard because he’s the best GW5 captain - i can’t wait to transfer him out, he looks horrible

if i don’t get a top 100 finish this year i’m a failure, my best ever finish was in the top 500 & i get no dopamine for finishing in the top 1-10k

these content creators don’t play to achieve #1 globally, they’re aiming for top 10k finishes which is why they’re scared to think for themselves and take risks

[Nemo @waddrix]

this aged well

study frontrunning your competition

fpl twitter is just too slow

#1 OR this year or i’m a failure…

[Nemo @waddrix]

4.5/5.0 defenders that have a 80% chance of scoring +2 for defcon + a 30-35% chance of scoring 4 points with a clean sheet are extremely efficient this year

Salah is essential for GW4 & 5

Haaland is essential for GW4-38

most of the midfielders/forwards with over 30/40% odds to score are worth around 7-8m (Semenyo etc)

5 at the back is just overpowered this year & 3 strikers is meta because all the good players are classified as forwards (haaland and pedro are must haves) + gyok/wood/mateta/watkins

5-2-3 just naturally becomes one of the best formations for GW4-5 - but the plan is to go 4-3-3 in GW6 when i switch salah out for Palmer + Bruno or i just transfer salah out to upgrade a forward to Isak etc

[Nemo @waddrix]

@FPLCrateDigger was obvious in hindsight

so funny to see fpl twitter jump on the thoughts i had 2 weeks ago lmao

[Nemo @waddrix]

4.5/5.0 defenders that have a 80% chance of scoring +2 for defcon + a 30-35% chance of scoring 4 points with a clean sheet are extremely efficient this year

Salah is essential for GW4 & 5

Haaland is essential for GW4-38

most of the midfielders/forwards with over 30/40% odds to score are worth around 7-8m (Semenyo etc)

5 at the back is just overpowered this year & 3 strikers is meta because all the good players are classified as forwards (haaland and pedro are must haves) + gyok/wood/mateta/watkins

5-2-3 just naturally becomes one of the best formations for GW4-5 - but the plan is to go 4-3-3 in GW6 when i switch salah out for Palmer + Bruno or i just transfer salah out to upgrade a forward to Isak etc

[Nemo @waddrix]

@sky_valley87 https://t.co/bJUr0ji7DS

[Nemo @waddrix]

Joao Pedro or Mateta?

For those on GW4 wildcard

Mateta updated xG according to Spreadex

= 0.44

Joao Pedro updated xG according to Spreadex

= 0.37

Considering this is Mateta’s best fixture and he only has 0.07 higher xG than Pedro for the week, i don’t think he’s the correct choice over Pedro for WC4 in fpl

Mateta is averaging 0.16xAG per 90 vs Pedro’s 0.85xAG

the odds on this page don’t show % odds of an assist - Pedro is averaging 0.37xA which would mean he’s even more likely to outscore Mateta this week too despite having 0.07xG less

Mateta over Pedro makes no sense

especially considering you have Mateta play Liverpool in GW6 and Pedro is essential for GW8 onwards

you’re booking a transfer for a 0.15xG marginal gain over 2 weeks which isn’t really worth it at all

the fact that crystal palace got downgraded from 1.78 xG to 1.53xG makes me think the graphic showing ‘Top attacks’ for GW4 - GW9 onward slightly overrates their attack & the spread betting market proves that bc of the drop we saw over the last 1-2 days

imo Pedro starts this week - chelsea don’t have the luxury to play a striker that didn’t even start for sunderland against brentford 4 weeks into the premier league

Brentford is a good team and chelsea have high ambitions this season - they need pedro

[Nemo @waddrix]

85 points

overall rank: top 4k

fpl is easier and way more fun when you think for yourself instead of placing value/importance on what content creators say

Mateta was an obvious trap & Haaland was an obvious pick from GW1, we’re entering GW5 & people are still unsure about him when he’s clearly the best asset in the game

i never started with salah but legit only transferred him in on wildcard because he’s the best GW5 captain - i can’t wait to transfer him out, he looks horrible

if i don’t get a top 100 finish this year i’m a failure, my best ever finish was in the top 500 & i get no dopamine for finishing in the top 1-10k

these content creators don’t play to achieve #1 globally, they’re aiming for top 10k finishes which is why they’re scared to think for themselves and take risks

[Nemo @waddrix]

i tweeted about this back in July, i honestly don’t care for finishing in the top 10k or whatever - i’d feel 0 dopamine from it

[Nemo @waddrix]

idk if i even wanna play fantasy premier league this year

i already came top 450 globally like

what is there to do after that

become top 400?

the odds are astronomically low not to mention the luck you’d need

i’d only play to be competitive with my friends but it’s kinda cemented that i’m the best already

every time i get the highest rank on a game i just stop playing because i don’t see the point anymore

[Nemo @waddrix]

i’ve only ever tried to seriously compete in FPL for 3 seasons since i got top 450 globally

in 2 of those seasons i was top 0-5k up until around GW20 & then i’d start taking extra/unecessary risk because i wanted to go for a #1 OR finish

i legit stop playing the game if it’s not mathematically possible to get a #1 OR finish

i get 0 dopamine competing for top 10k

i never claimed to have the best track record but i would rather have a single 3 digit finish than 3 x 10k

you guys have to realise if you’re trying to achieve #1 global rank your ranks won’t look like:

9k
4k
5k
8k

these are the ranks of somebody who is satisfied with being in the top 10k

it’d look something like:

200th
200k
700k
6m (if you stop playing bc your chances of number 1 are over)
1st

look at the season performance of those who have won FPL and you’ll see i’m telling the truth

someone like a @FPL_Harry will never win FPL & that’s fine, he has still achieved top 10k finishes - it’s just important to keep that in mind when you compare my past performance to his, we have different goals in mind

most content creators are happy with top 10k and aim for it every season - this is why they’re doing so poorly this season, taking risk and going against the template has paid off this year

onto the chips:

the bench boost in the first half of the season is worth a maximum of 7-8 points effectively

why?

because you have to make suboptimal transfers for your team & have money sitting on the bench whilst i’ll have my full £100m in the starting 11

not only that, but also remember that there won’t be any double game weeks GW1-19

and finally, the promoted teams which had 4.0 playing defenders/keepers (Leeds + Burnley) all had a really good fixture for bench boosting GW1/2

bench boosting GW1/2 was objectively the correct decision and i think people here seriously over estimate how much a bench boost is worth - it can actually result in a negative rank for your team if you make suboptimal transfers for your bench instead of your starting team

i’ll admit that a free hit is a more valuable - it’s prob worth around 15-20 points

the wildcard being used isn’t really relevant since most people are going to flock to the team that i wildcarded to (+ semenyo) in GW6

if anything, it was actually efficient to use because i farmed a decent amount of team value

[Hungary Szoboszlai (George) @HungarySzoboFPL]

@waddrix Dude. You finished 2.6m last year. You did however finish top 500 back in 19/20 season.

You’re at a great rank now, well done. But don’t preach bollocks please.

You’ve used BB1, FH2 and WC4.