BOJ

[BOJ @wakeup33447]

Austin’s case is not isolated; it merely represents the first visible fracture in a larger system distorted by easy money and speculative behavior. Real Estate Prices will peak in 2025.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

"California housing crash fears as buying rates plummet below Great Recession level," per NYP

[Jon Brooks @jonbrooks]

Housing prices are about to go negative.

[BOJ @wakeup33447]

@StealthQE4 Using mortgage delinquency rates as a barometer for a bubble shows a fundamental misunderstanding of how markets actually behave. Bubbles form through expectations, feedback loops, and distorted perceptions of value not through foreclosure rates.

[BOJ @wakeup33447]

@StealthQE4 When he called it an unaffordable housing crisis, he's already acknowledging the presence of a bubble. That’s what a bubble is: a self reinforcing loop where rising prices create the very expectations that push them higher.

[BOJ @wakeup33447]

@jam_croissant @FoxBusiness @BrianBrenberg I'm sorry but you need to get a new emoji. That looks like a piece of poop on his head..

[Lance Lambert @NewsLambert]

More housing markets are slipping into correction-mode

[BOJ @wakeup33447]

@SpencerHakimian Find American Workers... oh wait... Americans don't want these jobs. So Pay More. This is what you voted for isn't it? Populism?

[BOJ @wakeup33447]

@jam_croissant I laugh at people who think Bond Vigilantes are not real.

[BOJ @wakeup33447]

@WarrenPies NGDP ≠ guaranteed, especially if rates stay high or the Fed can’t ease. Foreign buyers and pension allocators don’t wait for math they front-run risk.

So no, Moody’s isn’t pricing in a missed payment.
It’s pricing in a regime shift from “risk-free” to “risk premium required.”

[BOJ @wakeup33447]

@WarrenPies U.S. will “get paid back.” But markets absolutely care about how.
Debasement = inflation risk = higher term premiums = rising yields = compounding interest expense.
The U.S. needs 6.6% NGDP growth just to tread water.

[BOJ @wakeup33447]

@GeorgeGammon You can backtest anything to look perfect in hindsight. But that’s data mining, not forecasting. A model isn’t useful because it worked in the past. it’s only useful if it adapts to the current regime

[BOJ @wakeup33447]

@GeorgeGammon If you test 645 million spreads and find one that “never failed,” that’s not a discovery that’s data dredging. You're almost guaranteed to find patterns that look predictive purely by statistical fluke. When the regime changes the model collapses.

[BOJ @wakeup33447]

@WarrenPies Why even have credit ratings.. it’s no big deal…

[BOJ @wakeup33447]

@jam_croissant Stag - Flation

[BOJ @wakeup33447]

@GeorgeGammon George just debunked his own video about Bond Vigilantes not being real..

[BOJ @wakeup33447]

@SantiagoAuFund We still have a few gaps left in 2022 2023 that still hasn't been filled. Eventually.

[BOJ @wakeup33447]

@GeorgeGammon George would have sounded like an amateur if he told Rubin and Carville in 1994 that the spike in yields was "healthy growth pricing." They would have laughed him out of the room.

[BOJ @wakeup33447]

@GeorgeGammon In late 93 the bond market wasn’t signaling growth, it was punishing fiscal and monetary incompetence. Bond vigilantes feared the Fed had lost the plot, and Clinton’s policies would deepen deficits and unleash inflation. Not "Growth Expectations". You are wrong George.

[BOJ @wakeup33447]

@GeorgeGammon Bond vigilantes started selling bonds aggressively in late 1993 and early 1994 because of fears over Clinton’s spending, deficits, and the Fed being behind the curve. Carville stated the bond market seems to have more power than the elected president. After this bond massacre.

[BOJ @wakeup33447]

@GeorgeGammon The great bond market massacre of 1994. The bond market revolted first, driving yields up sharply.
The Fed was forced to react later with rate hikes to regain control over inflation expectations and its own credibility. Bond vigilantes are real.