DonBiggavelli

#bitcoin

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

For the record.

The Market Has Already Moved On

A leadership change is already
underway, but most investors are still clinging to the last trade. Everyone is crowded into semiconductors and memory, propped up by passive flows and a sell-side still extrapolating an era of outsized earnings surprises that is now behind us. The big earnings revision cycle in semiconductors and AI power is over.

The bottleneck trade is crowded and over-owned, and that playbook is exhausted. Semis now represent 20% of the S&P 500. A period of digestion is needed.

The market is broadening. Beneath the surface, the median stock is delivering double-digit earnings growth, with second-quarter earnings tracking toward 25% year-over-year. This is a rolling recovery, not a narrow AI story.

The AI cycle is not over, but it is evolving. Hyperscalers may be near a bottom and are beginning to convert capex into revenue, extending the cycle. But the bottleneck trade, owning semiconductors and AI Power, is no longer sufficient.

The era of massive upside earnings surprises is over IMHO

These stocks are crowded, expectations are elevated, and future earnings beats are unlikely to surprise as they have.

Leadership is rotating. Equal-weight indices, small caps, and domestic cyclicals are gaining traction, supported by improving earnings and still-muted positioning. Policy is reinforcing the shift, with a more Hamiltonian focus on domestic investment and productive capital.
Liquidity is also changing. Credit creation is moving from the Fed to the private sector, with bank deregulation playing a key role.

This is a more selective regime.
Investors can wait, or adapt. The market has already decided.

[Ali Al-Salim @alialsalim]

One of the most successful GCC integration initiatives has been the GCC Interconnection Authority (GCCIA) power grid.⚡️
Operational since 2010, it has provided emergency backup, reserves and enabled electricity trading across all six states.
Its strategic importance stands today in light of the current conflict.
The GCCIA offers an important case study for the region to explore a similar water grid. 💧

[DonBiggavelli @waleeddro]

@_MI__E @grok what kind of car is this?

[Ted Zhang @TedHZhang]

.@BillAckman was:

1. down over 80% on an investment and his fund was down 30%+

2. Going through a divorce

3. Negative press was all over him

Here is his advice for dealing with high pressure situations and the hardest of times.

[DonBiggavelli @waleeddro]

@Jason Beef-Bar in Riyadh

[Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker]

Federal budget deficit is improving.

Important and underreported.

[Knowledge & History @xKnowledgeBANK]

"The world is a book and those who do not travel read only one page"

[Tanay Jaipuria @tanayj]

Analysis from Goldman on valuations today vs Dec 99

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

Spread between S&P 500’s earnings yield and 10y Treasury yield is still below 0 … hovering near lowest since 2002

[The Long View @HayekAndKeynes]

CTAs are max long

[Sofia Horta e Costa @SofiaHCBBG]

Hedge funds are shorting the VIX at a rate not seen in three years
https://t.co/aQgeeEVMXT

[Barchart @Barchart]

JUST IN 🚨: Japan's 30-Year Bond Yield hits highest level in history 👀

[CN Wire @Sino_Market]

🇨🇳PBOC Signals Yuan Strength Amid Tariff De-escalation: ING
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) raised its reference rate for the Chinese yuan on Tuesday, pushing it above the key level of 7.2 per dollar for the first time since early April. This move indicates that authorities are acknowledging the currency's strength as U.S.-China tariff tensions ease. The PBOC set the daily midpoint rate for the yuan at 7.1991 per dollar on Tuesday, compared to 7.2066 the previous day, allowing the yuan to appreciate further against the U.S. dollar. ING economist Lynn Song noted on Monday that positive developments could spur capital inflows and support a stronger yuan in the near term. However, she also cautioned that it is still hard to predict how this will balance out with potential factors that could lead to a recovery of the U.S. dollar.
#CHINA $SHCOMP $SSEC $ASHR $HSI $KWEB $FXI $HXC $DRAG $YINN $YANG @MKTNews24 $USDCNH $USDCNY $CNH $CNY
https://t.co/PUw6nWIbzv

[DonBiggavelli @waleeddro]

🤔

[Warren Niles @WarrenNiles1]

I did research on @deepseek_ai recent papers and the implications for the R2 model later this month. I think Deepseek has built a ~10x more efficient model and they will offer a better AI than OpenAI at a similar price or a similar one at a cheaper price.

https://t.co/a2e9mG8sAY

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

The Tariff Tantrum of the past few months has produced a rapid repricing of US vs ex-US equities. That 68% P/E premium in February is now 50% as international earnings estimates are now outpacing US estimates.

[Morgan Housel @morganhousel]

Markets will recover long before things are clear and people will say "wow, amazing, so strange, makes no sense" even though that's the entire 200 year history of the stock market.

[Startup Archive @StartupArchive_]

Jeff Bezos on raising Amazon’s seed round: “It was the hardest thing I’ve ever done”

“To raise the first $1 million of seed capital for Amazon, I sold 20% of the company at a $5 million valuation. I sold 20% of the company for a million dollars to 22 angel investors, roughly $50,000 each.”

Jeff recalls taking 60 meetings to get to those 22 angels who said yes, which means roughly 40 of the investors he pitched said no.

“And by the way, the 40 ‘no’s were hard-earned ‘no’s… They were multiple meetings, working really hard to get people to write that $50,000 check. And the whole enterprise could have been extinguished then.”

This was in 1995, and the first question Jeff would always get was, “What’s the Internet?”

So Jeff would patiently explain what the Internet was. He would also always tell them he thought there was a 70% chance they would lose their investment.

“In retrospect, I think that might have been a little naive, but I think it was true. In fact, if anything, I think was giving myself better than the real odds.”

Video source: @nytimesevents (2024)

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

Tesla director Joseph Gebbia, who joined the board in 2022 and co-founded Airbnb, just disclosed a $1M insider buy of $TSLA.

He picked up 4,000 shares at $256.31 each — marking Tesla’s first insider purchase since 2020.

[Benn Eifert 🥷🏴‍☠️ @bennpeifert]

lol, lmao even

[ideahazard💹🧲 @1d34h4z4rd]

If you bought gold at the pico-top in 1492 it would have taken 533 years for you to breakeven in 2025.