walkin

Working on myself - Working for myself
Crypto & prediction markets analyst | Building tools to work with market opportunities

[walkin @walkin404]

Kevin Warsh - first Fed Chair who owns Bitcoin - confirmed 54-45. He wants rate cuts AND QT simultaneously. Traders don't trust it. BTC dropped to $79K on the news. Ideologically bullish on crypto, potentially bearish on liquidity. June 16-17 FOMC is the real test.

[walkin @walkin404]

Privacy coins were supposed to be dead. Then Zcash announced quantum-recoverable wallets launching June 2026, with a full protocol upgrade called Tachyon by 2027. Real deadlines, not a roadmap slide.

The rest of crypto is still holding workshops about quantum risk. Zcash is shipping.

Multicoin Capital took a significant position. ZEC is up 110% in 30 days. Turns out privacy had real demand the whole time - and now it has a technical moat too.

First concrete quantum-protection deadline in the industry. Worth paying attention to.

[walkin @walkin404]

The CLARITY Act (H.R.3633) hits Senate Banking Committee markup on May 14. The most consequential crypto regulation bill in years. Almost nobody is talking about it.

The stablecoin compromise: deposit-style interest - banned. Activity-based rewards - allowed. Circle jumped ~20% on that one provision. The market understands what this means even if the media doesn't.

What nobody's saying: Powell's term ends May 15. One day after the vote. A Federal Reserve chair who spent years resisting crypto exits the same week Congress locks in crypto's regulatory framework for the next decade.

That timing is not an accident. Pay attention to May 14.

[walkin @walkin404]

Kalshi raised $1B at a $22B valuation. Coatue led. Morgan Stanley, Sequoia, and a16z all participated.

Let that sink in. This isn't a crypto round. This is Wall Street writing a billion-dollar check to a prediction market company.

When those four names pile into the same round, they're not betting on Kalshi. They're betting on a category. Prediction markets just got their "this is real now" moment.

[walkin @walkin404]

Perp DEXs are the fastest-growing segment in DeFi. Volume is exploding. Retail is all in. Institutions? Still watching from the sidelines.

Consensus Miami made it official - big regulated players won't touch decentralized derivatives. KYC friction. Custody ambiguity. No clean regulatory framework.

And April 2026 made the case for them: 28-30 DeFi hacks, $625M+ in losses. That's not a risk conversation, that's a hard no.

[walkin @walkin404]

Telegram just became TON's largest validator. TON up 36% overnight. 1 billion users. One company holds the keys.

"Decentralized" the way your landlord is "just a property manager."

But here's the thing - Durov has nowhere left to go in Web2. Telegram hit its ceiling. TON might genuinely be his next frontier, not just a side project. Centralized risk with a motivated builder at the helm is a different bet than centralized risk with someone who doesn't care.

[walkin @walkin404]

Haven’t posted anything on the market in a while. Since my last post, my expectations have shifted a bit

Let’s go over what has already played out. In the previous update, I nailed both zones perfectly, and both gave a strong reaction - around 11% and 9%. Hopefully you didn’t lose on those moves, and maybe even made some money

The only downside is that the whole thing has dragged out much longer than expected, and at this point I see a slow bleed as more likely than a sharp flush like we had at the end of January. That’s why I’m moving the stops on all my positions to breakeven. It would be stupid to ignore the fact that we’ve built an upward structure, and until we print a Lower Low, the scenario with one more leg up is still on the table

I marked the final zone on the chart where price can still move into, and where it may make sense to put the shorts back on. If you want, take profit now. If you’re fine with round-tripping some of that profit, move your stops to breakeven and go focus on other things
$BTC
https://t.co/eSxN6Ak6w9

[walkin @walkin404]

Another quick $BTC update
So far, everything is moving exactly as planned - pumped on the ceasefire news and short liquidations. I'm starting to build a short position, sticking to the strategy I shared earlier. The only thing I've added to my bias is a potential squeeze toward 75600 driven by liquidations. Keep that in mind and watch your leverage
https://t.co/amj356Ko1i
Should I drop a post detailing exactly how I'm playing this move down?

[walkin @walkin404]

@cryptofergani Still confirmed, yeah? They’ve already wiped out the entire move and we’re back in the range. When are you finally going to stop misleading people?

https://t.co/hSzAjj45Gc

[walkin @walkin404]

Another quick $BTC update
So far, everything is moving exactly as planned - pumped on the ceasefire news and short liquidations. I'm starting to build a short position, sticking to the strategy I shared earlier. The only thing I've added to my bias is a potential squeeze toward 75600 driven by liquidations. Keep that in mind and watch your leverage
https://t.co/amj356Ko1i
Should I drop a post detailing exactly how I'm playing this move down?

[walkin @walkin404]

@jussy_world Really solid market vision, I’m fully aligned with it. In my post, I outlined three possible scenarios for how the bottom could form

https://t.co/Fz2LCn3dzz

[walkin @walkin404]

This topic deserves a post of its own.

I’ll say right off the bat: I don't want to speculate on what's next for altcoins. They live in their own world, and if we assume the crypto market is evolving toward the stock market, it’s still way too young – for the most part, everything just follows Bitcoin. Only $HYPE has shown recently that it can decouple and move against the market, which is the first sign of a more mature environment. In my view, only $BTC has maintained its cycles, so in my reviews, I focus exclusively on it

In the current climate, picking a market bottom is tough, especially since the S&P 500 is still sitting near its all-time highs. This could be a double-edged sword:

1) Crypto front-ran the stock market, and the de-risking happened earlier on some macro news. If the stock market starts a heavy leg down, we might not see such a drastic move in crypto
2) Crypto dropped for its own reasons without a major macro threat, and if a real crisis hits, we’ll tank VERY, VERY hard

So, let's look at 3 main scenarios:

1. Optimistic (Green)
An impulsive sweep of 60k followed by a return to the range. We form a 58-75k bracket and chop sideways for six months to a year, with periodic liquidations in both directions

2. Base Case (Yellow)
After an impulsive break of 60k, we retest this zone lower and move to sweep 48k. From there, we build a new range and break out to the upside after six months

3. Negative (Red)
Same as the base case, but with one more flush down to the 32-36k zone. This would fully mirror the 2021-2022 fractal, though I personally find this scenario unlikely

https://t.co/Xqbxxlub20

[walkin @walkin404]

Another quick $BTC update
So far, everything is moving exactly as planned - pumped on the ceasefire news and short liquidations. I'm starting to build a short position, sticking to the strategy I shared earlier. The only thing I've added to my bias is a potential squeeze toward 75600 driven by liquidations. Keep that in mind and watch your leverage
https://t.co/amj356Ko1i
Should I drop a post detailing exactly how I'm playing this move down?

[walkin @walkin404]

Quick $BTC update since Feb 18:
We followed the local plan pretty cleanly – swept 65k, even tested the range low, and now we’re heading for that 72k liquidity.
In this zone I’ll be looking for short entries and positioning for new lows

https://t.co/3MjExU47fL

[walkin @walkin404]

Why did you go long from that spot? I don't get it at all - price showed a clear rejection at 70k and started filling the 4h IMB. It’s weird to look for an entry before that imbalance is fully covered. Honestly, a solid entry would be right where your stop loss is sitting - plus, the fast moving average converges right there

[walkin @walkin404]

If you’re 99.9% sure where the market is headed, you’re nothing more than a loudmouth.
Price can drop out of an ascending channel at any moment, and that’s not some tiny 0.1% chance.
How are we even supposed to take seriously the people who live off hypey headlines and bring almost no real value?

[walkin @walkin404]

Terrible things are happening in the Middle East today, and it’s very strange that anyone dares to call this justice

At the same time, insiders still managed to make a fortune. My insider-tracking software on #Polymarket flagged the first anomaly on 16.02.2026
Here’s the wallet - https://t.co/mFi2ekvfcK

And on 26.02.2026 at 16:50 UTC I caught the very insider everyone is talking about today – https://t.co/LZQ0Tf9i3K

[walkin @walkin404]

I’ve seen a hundred posts like this already: some guy attaches a random chart pattern with a massive clickbait caption like "buckle up."Why the hype? You’re just misleading people. There are no balanced arguments here — just a childish drawing and zero actual analysis. Do yourself a favor and read up on the 3 possible market bottom scenarios instead
https://t.co/WVPdZuDamb

[walkin @walkin404]

This topic deserves a post of its own.

I’ll say right off the bat: I don't want to speculate on what's next for altcoins. They live in their own world, and if we assume the crypto market is evolving toward the stock market, it’s still way too young – for the most part, everything just follows Bitcoin. Only $HYPE has shown recently that it can decouple and move against the market, which is the first sign of a more mature environment. In my view, only $BTC has maintained its cycles, so in my reviews, I focus exclusively on it

In the current climate, picking a market bottom is tough, especially since the S&P 500 is still sitting near its all-time highs. This could be a double-edged sword:

1) Crypto front-ran the stock market, and the de-risking happened earlier on some macro news. If the stock market starts a heavy leg down, we might not see such a drastic move in crypto
2) Crypto dropped for its own reasons without a major macro threat, and if a real crisis hits, we’ll tank VERY, VERY hard

So, let's look at 3 main scenarios:

1. Optimistic (Green)
An impulsive sweep of 60k followed by a return to the range. We form a 58-75k bracket and chop sideways for six months to a year, with periodic liquidations in both directions

2. Base Case (Yellow)
After an impulsive break of 60k, we retest this zone lower and move to sweep 48k. From there, we build a new range and break out to the upside after six months

3. Negative (Red)
Same as the base case, but with one more flush down to the 32-36k zone. This would fully mirror the 2021-2022 fractal, though I personally find this scenario unlikely

https://t.co/Xqbxxlub20

[walkin @walkin404]

@PDmytriiev Hi! This topic deserves a post of its own. Thank you for a good question
https://t.co/bksfHVXRVO

[walkin @walkin404]

This topic deserves a post of its own.

I’ll say right off the bat: I don't want to speculate on what's next for altcoins. They live in their own world, and if we assume the crypto market is evolving toward the stock market, it’s still way too young – for the most part, everything just follows Bitcoin. Only $HYPE has shown recently that it can decouple and move against the market, which is the first sign of a more mature environment. In my view, only $BTC has maintained its cycles, so in my reviews, I focus exclusively on it

In the current climate, picking a market bottom is tough, especially since the S&P 500 is still sitting near its all-time highs. This could be a double-edged sword:

1) Crypto front-ran the stock market, and the de-risking happened earlier on some macro news. If the stock market starts a heavy leg down, we might not see such a drastic move in crypto
2) Crypto dropped for its own reasons without a major macro threat, and if a real crisis hits, we’ll tank VERY, VERY hard

So, let's look at 3 main scenarios:

1. Optimistic (Green)
An impulsive sweep of 60k followed by a return to the range. We form a 58-75k bracket and chop sideways for six months to a year, with periodic liquidations in both directions

2. Base Case (Yellow)
After an impulsive break of 60k, we retest this zone lower and move to sweep 48k. From there, we build a new range and break out to the upside after six months

3. Negative (Red)
Same as the base case, but with one more flush down to the 32-36k zone. This would fully mirror the 2021-2022 fractal, though I personally find this scenario unlikely

https://t.co/Xqbxxlub20

[walkin @walkin404]

Quick $BTC update since Feb 18:
We followed the local plan pretty cleanly – swept 65k, even tested the range low, and now we’re heading for that 72k liquidity.
In this zone I’ll be looking for short entries and positioning for new lows

https://t.co/3MjExU47fL

[walkin @walkin404]

Since my last update on $BTC, pretty much nothing has changed – contrary to my expectations we broke down even lower and have been chopping sideways at these levels

The bigger picture hasn’t changed (only the targets have). I’m still expecting us to range here for about another week and then go hunt for a new low. Locally, we can still squeeze up to the 75k area
https://t.co/KnKnWCk4cv

[walkin @walkin404]

This topic deserves a post of its own.

I’ll say right off the bat: I don't want to speculate on what's next for altcoins. They live in their own world, and if we assume the crypto market is evolving toward the stock market, it’s still way too young – for the most part, everything just follows Bitcoin. Only $HYPE has shown recently that it can decouple and move against the market, which is the first sign of a more mature environment. In my view, only $BTC has maintained its cycles, so in my reviews, I focus exclusively on it

In the current climate, picking a market bottom is tough, especially since the S&P 500 is still sitting near its all-time highs. This could be a double-edged sword:

1) Crypto front-ran the stock market, and the de-risking happened earlier on some macro news. If the stock market starts a heavy leg down, we might not see such a drastic move in crypto
2) Crypto dropped for its own reasons without a major macro threat, and if a real crisis hits, we’ll tank VERY, VERY hard

So, let's look at 3 main scenarios:

1. Optimistic (Green)
An impulsive sweep of 60k followed by a return to the range. We form a 58-75k bracket and chop sideways for six months to a year, with periodic liquidations in both directions

2. Base Case (Yellow)
After an impulsive break of 60k, we retest this zone lower and move to sweep 48k. From there, we build a new range and break out to the upside after six months

3. Negative (Red)
Same as the base case, but with one more flush down to the 32-36k zone. This would fully mirror the 2021-2022 fractal, though I personally find this scenario unlikely

https://t.co/Xqbxxlub20

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

@walkin404 when or on which levels do you expect macro bottom?

[walkin @walkin404]

I want to share my current #AI tools workflow and how I actually use them. I’m not claiming to be an expert — I discover new tools and AI use cases almost every day, so this list might go outdated fast. Still, maybe you’ll find something useful here. Let’s break it down by categories:

1. Vibe coding
– Cursor + Claude extension (MAX plan)
The perfect combo. You get the full power and intelligence of Opus 4.6 with the cleanest, most intuitive UI/UX from Cursor. It’s easily one of the best setups for coding with AI right now

2. Analytics
– Manus – for complex analytical projects, building infographics, tools, or even full-on websites
– Notebook LM – for lighter analytical work when I already have all the sources and don’t want to burn expensive Manus tokens
– Claude Chrome extension – a must-have for on-page site search, so I don’t have to keep a dedicated AI browser like Comet open

3. Everyday life
– Perplexity Pro – my main AI for general questions. I use it a lot to check AI-related info, health stuff, or just to learn something fast. Deep personalization, multiple models, and since I got the annual plan for $10 – total steal
– ChatGPT (free) – mostly use the mobile app when I need to quickly check a fact
– Gemini (mobile browser) – great for fast searches, sometimes I even use it for quick image generations with nano banana

That’s basically the core setup I use every day. I’ve got more niche AI tools too, might drop a separate post about those later

[walkin @walkin404]

@cryptofergani And what exactly are your arguments besides “the market will go where I drew it”? Just because you spotted one pattern?

[walkin @walkin404]

Bullshit! The market is full of apathy and disappointment right now. Institutions are pulling out, dumping their bags and let’s be honest, we were holding up for so long mostly because of them. Retail is deep underwater in alts.

What we really need is time. A proper shake-out, coins changing hands, and real catalysts to rotate capital back into crypto. Not just some nice-looking pattern on the chart