solanomics

[DonAlt @DonAlt]

They just be cycling through every single sector nuking FOMO buyers

Housing during COVID
Crypto after COVID
Gold & Silver just a couple months ago
Fucking eggs and potatoes

Shit just goes up infinite and then nukes 50% like it's a shitcoin
I wonder how this IPO mania will end

[DonAlt @DonAlt]

Whenever bear markets like these hit my conviction that crypto is going to produce something that is going to make a difference in the world grows big time

Whenever bull markets hit it shrinks to near zero given the shit the industry comes up with when it has all the attention

[DonAlt @DonAlt]

$BTC update:

There is the $60k test

If Saylor sells significantly more $45k becomes possible
If this is the extent of his selling $60k is probably a good spot

[DonAlt @DonAlt]

Sentiment couldn't be worse, everyone is dying
Usually these are the times in which I'd get ready to buy a lot

But nowadays I'd have to worry about 5 Saylor ponzis 100 ETFs and get AI exploits while doing it

Seems like such a hassle, give back the simple times

[DonAlt @DonAlt]

I'm gonna buy properly if we close this week above 71k

Think that's the minimum of strength I wanna see to put more money at risk

[DonAlt @DonAlt]

Why is crypto not going up while everything is?

Because a large majority of you cunts spent the last cycle promoting garbage negative sum meme coins to newcomers
Now those people hate crypto and your meme coin is worth zero regardless while some scamming cunt drives a new lambo

[DonAlt @DonAlt]

Call me stupid but I find the strategy of averaging in over like 6 years and then selling below your average 6 years later

Kind of retarded?

Especially considering the fact BTC went up 10x from where he first started buying

[DonAlt @DonAlt]

$BTC update:

Went to resistance, resistance resisted
Still largely looks the same to me as it has for months now

Could see us dip back into $60k support due to Saylor having found the sell button panic but would be surprised by more than that

Remains not bad, not great still

[Cred @CryptoCred]

There have been a few key changes in crypto market structure.

I've written about this topic before but I found myself carrying some stale epistemological baggage about how the market used to be versus what it is at the moment, so thought I'd share.

1. More coins than ever before and the barrier to creating new coins has never been lower.

2. More competition for the hot ball of money (AI, semis, tech, even commodities) and instruments like 0DTE options - all of which are very attractive to normies.

3. Change in participant type and sophistication - ETFs, more tradfi shops, suits etc.

4. Normie flows that used to concentrate around a few CEXes and a limited token set have been fragmented by the infinite listings and existence of the trenches.

There are fewer normie flows, they're spread too thin, and it's difficult to come back to the casino if you get dumped on for holding longer than 15 seconds.

The main attractor to crypto used to be outsized, long-lasting, and well-distributed trend and momentum effects that were easy to access because there weren't that many venues or coins.

That's basically up only/alt season i.e. multi-month periods that were responsible for a disproportionate amount of a crypto trader's lifetime P&L.

A rising tide lifting all boats is an overused but appropriate analogy - it didn't really matter what coins you bought.

If you got the broader market conditions right, you'd enjoy significant uplift and basically get bailed out even if you made bad picks.

In the current paradigm you can't afford to make bad picks.

To be precise: in previous cycles if you got the conditions right but the assets wrong, you'd still make money but underperform. In the current cycle (even from the most recent BTC run) if you got conditions right but the assets wrong, you got shafted.

So asset selection went from a nice-to-have enhancer to one of the main drivers of returns, even if BTC is going up.

That's a pretty significant departure from what we've dealt with in the past

This type of dispersion is a symptom of the market maturing.

I think that's a net good thing and is likely to incentivise more intelligent token design, less ghost chain VC slop etc.

But that's a forward-looking view, and at the moment we're trapped in this awkward transition phase where the old rules don't really apply but we haven't figured out a new framework yet e.g. top N coins by market cap are still mostly shit vs quality.

Maybe I'm wrong and everything changes and we go back to the market-wide altseason paradigm when conditions are right. This could all be cyclical, but I think that's less compelling than before given the dispersion we saw on the way up too vs just to the downside.

I think it's a good time (especially with other markets and asset classes going crazy) to revisit where crypto sits in the speculative stack and how to approach it as the market is changing.

Cheers.

[solanomics @war_hand]

@SMtrades_ short liq coming

[DonAlt @DonAlt]

Apparently there is a hentai virus going round spooking everyone

Weebs everywhere distraught, maybe a good excuse to meet real women instead

[DonAlt @DonAlt]

$BTC weekly

Support 78k
Resistance 86k

The more I check the charts the better BTC looks
Now could we get fucked over by some geopolitical dumb shit?
Of course
But the technicals are quite alright to me

[DonAlt @DonAlt]

Keeps buying the top
Starts talking about selling at the bottom

IDK man, maybe just buy the bottom and sell the top instead
How the fuck did you start buying BTC a hundred years ago with an average that is barely up in the first place

[DonAlt @DonAlt]

bitcoin:native

Just gotta zoom out a bit

[DonAlt @DonAlt]

You can barely see the bear market we just went through

I liked it better when we went down 80% and then up infinite but oh well we're all adults now I guess

[Cred @CryptoCred]

If you trade when you shouldn't you'll generally lose money.

In most cases identifying when you shouldn't trade is simple.

But that judgment gets clouded if you're tilted, feeling FOMO, bored, and a bunch of other external factors.

It's a bit like post nut clarity: as soon as you're out of it you can't believe you thought it was a good fill.

Traders try to mitigate this behaviour via detailed entry checklists but they're often too long or too vague to be useful.

So here's an extremely simple checklist: should-i-punt. Run through it in your head before any trade, or install it as a skill if your LLM psychosis is advanced enough and you've already built 14 broken dashboards.

Trading is hard enough as it is; don't make it harder by dragging down your PnL with unforced errors.

[DonAlt @DonAlt]

$BTC

I've been preemptively bullish but I think these are the levels at which sentiment and market behavior will shift notably

78k$+ - People will finally start being cautiously bullish
87k$+ - Full blown bullish, bullish acceleration likely
70k$- - High likelihood of death

[DonAlt @DonAlt]

I don't really think BTC is going much lower from here
Chop is the worst case in my head from here on out
(Unless the world ends but useless to pontificate that)

[DonAlt @DonAlt]

$BTC

Seems kind of alright to me
Not bad, not great

Decent reaction to support having been hit, resistance kinda meh from here on out
Might just have to give it some time

[DonAlt @DonAlt]

$BTC

I don't see why so many are bearish here based on technicals
You can easily justify being bearish because of geopolitics
But chart wise, really doesn't look bad

I remain cautiously optimistic about BTC price