@landon_wx This is looking to be a interesting systems if trends hold up. 12z GFS in middle of Missouri says almost a unheard of type parameter space for the time of year in this area.
@Brady_Wx@VinceWaelti Yeah, I'm aware of that and his work is very helpful especially with the lack of soundings. Just hope one day we can see the environment that boundaries have. Because some see responsible for violent tornadoes but then others produce weak tornadoes. It's intriguing.
@Brady_Wx It'd be nice if in the future we could take soundings on thermal boundaries to get a idea of the environment they hold on them. Otherwise yesterday was a very promising look for my method
@Brady_Wx I created a method for tornado peak intensity a few weeks ago. Yesterday, i got 120-140 for the majority of soundings. That seemingly verified. This was the only tornado that overperformed that estimate, and as I suspected the boundary locally increased shear.
@ChasingWConnor The SPC has a strict hesitancy if i remember to not downgrade risks. It hurts them more than it aids them. Thank you for no BSing. 2nd unnecessary 10CIG1 in a row.
@Gabriel1813480@Gio_wx There's also stout 700s. I think there a chance MAYBE crapvection is limited by this inversion. We will see though. I'm not convinced on that much initiation
@Gabriel1813480@Gio_wx It's why I'm more focused on E IA/W IL from a sounding perspective. A lot cleaner, i don't know what to make of the WF if models are overdoing it, but either way it's a interesting setup for strong to intense tornadoes
@Gio_wx Peak intensity along the WF using my self created method accounts for 140-160 mph. Could certainly be a interesting day but you can't find it uncontaminated sounding on the warm front for the life of me