Kevin Joyce

[Kevin Joyce @warmfrontrider]

@landon_wx This is looking to be a interesting systems if trends hold up. 12z GFS in middle of Missouri says almost a unheard of type parameter space for the time of year in this area.

[Kevin Joyce @warmfrontrider]

@Brady_Wx @VinceWaelti Yeah, I'm aware of that and his work is very helpful especially with the lack of soundings. Just hope one day we can see the environment that boundaries have. Because some see responsible for violent tornadoes but then others produce weak tornadoes. It's intriguing.

[Kevin Joyce @warmfrontrider]

@Brady_Wx It'd be nice if in the future we could take soundings on thermal boundaries to get a idea of the environment they hold on them. Otherwise yesterday was a very promising look for my method

[Kevin Joyce @warmfrontrider]

@Brady_Wx I created a method for tornado peak intensity a few weeks ago. Yesterday, i got 120-140 for the majority of soundings. That seemingly verified. This was the only tornado that overperformed that estimate, and as I suspected the boundary locally increased shear.

[Kevin Joyce @warmfrontrider]

@tornadotrx @CameronJNixon 😭😭😭😭 What busts do to a a man

[Kevin Joyce @warmfrontrider]

@Sekai_WX How about don't listen to me ever again after this tornado in N MO 👍 Peak intensity guidance by me did get 120-140 though so accurate

[Kevin Joyce @warmfrontrider]

@Sekai_WX I just don't get why this has 10#. It's evident it won't verify, weak tornado spam maybe but nothing significant

[Kevin Joyce @warmfrontrider]

@CharlieBourdo If you bag today, it's all because of him and I expect a post IF you bag thanking Bob

[Kevin Joyce @warmfrontrider]

@Nadojuice mfs giving up on a setup at 8pm and the tarkleson is out at 2am bagging STOUT tornadoes in Minnesota. Good shit

[Kevin Joyce @warmfrontrider]

@DavisDoesWX Rick Ross really think he Drake ✌️✌️ this album cover is ludric

[Kevin Joyce @warmfrontrider]

@TornadoCoaching I knew exactly who would be in this comment section by reading "northeast chaser" and "wind"

[Kevin Joyce @warmfrontrider]

@meteoroloquads It's Kerr. Not a bit surprised. Summary mentions strong tornadoes, synopsis doesn't lmao

[Kevin Joyce @warmfrontrider]

yall DO NOT wanna see that Kerr discussion otherwise there will be uproar #wxtwitter #wiwx #ilwx #iawx

[Kevin Joyce @warmfrontrider]

@ChasingWConnor The SPC has a strict hesitancy if i remember to not downgrade risks. It hurts them more than it aids them. Thank you for no BSing. 2nd unnecessary 10CIG1 in a row.

[Kevin Joyce @warmfrontrider]

@a_guidarelli I hope he's okay, traumatic experience NO doubt

[Kevin Joyce @warmfrontrider]

@Gabriel1813480 @Gio_wx There's also stout 700s. I think there a chance MAYBE crapvection is limited by this inversion. We will see though. I'm not convinced on that much initiation

[Kevin Joyce @warmfrontrider]

@Gabriel1813480 @Gio_wx It's why I'm more focused on E IA/W IL from a sounding perspective. A lot cleaner, i don't know what to make of the WF if models are overdoing it, but either way it's a interesting setup for strong to intense tornadoes

[Kevin Joyce @warmfrontrider]

@Gabriel1813480 @Gio_wx Subsidence 101 haha

[Kevin Joyce @warmfrontrider]

@Gio_wx This isn't against you BTW, just saying every sounding on the WF I picked had some contam in it. Annoying

[Kevin Joyce @warmfrontrider]

@Gio_wx Peak intensity along the WF using my self created method accounts for 140-160 mph. Could certainly be a interesting day but you can't find it uncontaminated sounding on the warm front for the life of me