BiotechWatcher

Biotech. Stocks. Usually Wrong. Not investment advice

[BiotechWatcher @WatcherBiotech]

$RZLT back from the dead! THI success should be a lock based on this. CHI also probably not a zero now. $400 million market cap
https://t.co/vcHdsUQ6qM

[BiotechWatcher @WatcherBiotech]

Makary’s time atop FDA over, Diamantas named acting commissioner
https://t.co/0zreHZDHFX

[BiotechWatcher @WatcherBiotech]

$ESPR Pathetic end to the story. I was dead wrong. Worst CEO of the year candidate; he didn't even try.

[BiotechWatcher @WatcherBiotech]

$ESPR I'm sure I will regret saying this, but ESPR sure seems interesting after this dip. The valuation (~2.5x sales) is already baking in competitive nervousness from oral PCSK9 entry later this year. But Nexletol will be added to lipid guidelines in the coming weeks (very impactful for primary care drugs, IMO), the company is going to be profitable this year after battling a weak balance sheet for years, is showing significant growth ex-US (royalties), and their successful IP defense means that the franchise will be generating profits until 2040 (Two Seas Capital (the litigation fund that owns $NKTR) also owns this one). This recent deal was also surprisingly well executed (they gave up very little). Based on the Furoscix (MNKD) launch, why wouldn't this new product be $100M+ in a few years of mostly pure contribution to the bottom line? They already preannounced 4Q25/2025, so no nervousness into earnings. All of this might be enough to get it out of shtco land one day $XBI

[BiotechWatcher @WatcherBiotech]

$ESPR Stock has been a complete stinker going into this (investors concerned that they wouldn't get it? 14% of float is short), but good to finally see inclusion into US AHA/ACC guidelines. Importantly, oral PCSK9i's will not have this at launch and will need years to complete outcomes studies. And these guidelines get updated like once a decade (was last updated in 2018). Just quite amazing that this is trading for 1.5x sales and a '27 P/E of like 8x. And now they can generate cash until 2040 https://t.co/cwaNsGGRwC

[BiotechWatcher @WatcherBiotech]

@Sanctuary_Bio $NTLA the best moment will be when investors start finding out that they were allocated their full indication 😂

[BiotechWatcher @WatcherBiotech]

$TVTX

Dimerix $DXB just announced a big push out for their FSGS program. They decided to go for full approval based on the final read out of their study (vs going for accelerated approval based on interim data). Last patient, last dose is March 2028. Approval probably not until 2029 year end? Stock is down 35% in Australia.

Nice win for $TVTX

$XBI

https://t.co/h5f1BE4meK

[BiotechWatcher @WatcherBiotech]

@Sanctuary_Bio $CATX

[BiotechWatcher @WatcherBiotech]

@fakepharmabro 🤔Is there something incrementally concerning in the data? Maybe good for $ELVN?
$XBI $TERN $MRK

[BiotechWatcher @WatcherBiotech]

$QNRX Following the $PVLA playbook. Would be a very fast Phase III program (single study, single arm). Data and filing next year. Microcap
$XBI

[BiotechWatcher @WatcherBiotech]

$QNRX baby $PVLA vibes

[BiotechWatcher @WatcherBiotech]

$PVLA success paving the path and creating the playbook for $QNRX. Microcap that probably won’t be for long
$XBI

[BiotechWatcher @WatcherBiotech]

$CATX Good safety update with the bigger dataset to come mid year. Importantly, "There were no reports of dose limiting toxicities (DLTs), treatment-related discontinuations, serious renal complications, dysphagia, or clinically significant treatment-related myelosuppression." $SNY / AlphaMedix (once their only real competitor) ditched their program because of renal toxicity and like 40%+ dysphagia rates. Seems to be an uncomplicated setup with a lot of upside if data continue to look this way
$XBI

[BiotechWatcher @WatcherBiotech]

$CATX Who knows where the stock settles, but this one at ~$300M in market cap now looks pretty compelling IMO. Efficacy will almost certainly improve in subsequent updates (ASCO next) and safety has been super clean (important for NETs and esp in the 1L setting). Now, with SNY gone, frontline / Lutathera TAM suddenly seems pretty real for them... $XBI

[BiotechWatcher @WatcherBiotech]

$CATX $175M financing removes the overhang and will let the data speak. Deal was priced with strength (no discount). "The financing included participation from Commodore Capital, TCGX, Spruce Street Capital, Surveyor Capital (a Citadel company), Affinity Asset Advisors, HBM Healthcare Investments, Ally Bridge Group and other leading healthcare specialist and long only investors."

[BiotechWatcher @WatcherBiotech]

@BioStocks Interesting for $TENX. If something this early stage is worth $950M, says something about how the strategics think about the market potential of PH-HFpEF (a relatively new concept). No idea why the stock has been trading off, but can't argue with the upside here if the trial hits

[BiotechWatcher @WatcherBiotech]

$NKTR Here's a nugget from a friend. Two Seas Capital just bought a chunk of NKTR. Two Seas is a litigation-specialist investor (not a biotech investor). The fund's PM is an attorney. The $LLY trial starts in September and Two Seas sure seems to think that $NKTR is going to get paid

[BiotechWatcher @WatcherBiotech]

@seedy19tron Thank you for doing this every year

[BiotechWatcher @WatcherBiotech]

@JacobPlieth but also +66% yesterday. We'll see what happens with the stock, but this was one of the best scenarios for what the company is pursuing in NETs $CATX

[BiotechWatcher @WatcherBiotech]

$LENZ VIZZ direct competitor approved yesterday and announced a concurrent financing to fund its launch. I have a feeling that this is a surprise to most $XBI