Olivia
Online
Wayne
@wayne03150315
- National Taiwan University, M.D.
- Physician, Machine Learning Engineer, Investor
- Interested in Math, Physics, Medicine, Biotech, History, Investing, Tennis
Taiwan / Canada / France
Joined May 2023
125 Following
62 Followers
312 Posts
https://t.co/xv6csf1SbV
NEW: Inside the 24-hrs before WH slapped export controls on Anthropic
- Last Thursday, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy raised concerns about Fable jailbreak to Trump admin
- Friday AM, Sean Cairncross, Bessent, Susie etc. held WH call to discuss
- Then White House started reaching out to Anthropic to speak with Dario Amodei, who was at a wellness retreat.
- When Amodei was finally available past 1pm, he had three tense phone calls with a combo of ppl including Cairncross, Bessent, Lutnick, Kessler, Will Scharf, Richard Walters, and Walker Barrett.
-Amodei tried to clear up what he assumed was a misunderstanding. He defended the guardrails and distinguished between universal and non-universal jailbreak
- Cairncross and Bessent were unmoved and asked Amodei to take down Fable and work with the admin to fix the vulnerabilities. (A WH official said Amazon’s findings were run past the NSA and they felt they had “proof.”)
- Amodei asked for more time and info, but he made no commitments to pull the model
- Bessent told Amodei directly at one point that he was making a “bad decision”
- By Friday evening, the Trump admin imposed its export controls.
- “Export controls were a last resort after begging them for hours to work with us,” senior WH official said.
W/ @cheyennehaslett
https://t.co/0Rwny9md3p
The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees.
The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance.
Access to all other Claude models is not affected.
We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible.
Read our full statement: https://t.co/bwn0sximKZ
The Islamic Republic has launched missiles at the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Jordan, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. It is targeting our Arab neighbors.
These violations of their sovereignty are unacceptable and we condemn them. But this is nothing new.
This is who the Islamic Republic has always been. And this is why it must end.
For nearly five decades, this terrorist regime has sown chaos and bloodshed across our region.
It propped up Assad, turning Syria into a graveyard.
It planted Hezbollah; as a state within a state in Lebanon.
It armed the Houthis to destabilize the Arabian Peninsula.
It empowered militias in Iraq that undermine Iraqi sovereignty.
It attacked the economic hubs of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
None of this has ever been the desire of the Iranian people, but rather that of the regime occupying our country. Now, however, the landscape has fundamentally shifted.
Assad is gone. Hezbollah has been decimated. The regime’s military nuclear program has been set back. Its economy is in freefall.
The pillars of this regime’s aggression are crumbling.
The Iranian people have paid the price, in blood, to reach this moment. The regime massacred at least tens of thousands of my compatriots in just two days. But it didn’t break the people. Instead, the regime itself is breaking.
Today, history reminds us of our future potential.
Before the revolution, Iran worked closely with Arab leaders — from King Faisal to Sheikh Zayed to King Hussein to President Sadat.
In Oman, my father helped Sultan Qaboos defend his country against insurgency.
We were true partners then. We will be true partners again.
The Iranian people have called on me to lead the transition after the regime is gone. I have accepted that responsibility. Part of their great mandate to me is to return our nation and our foreign relations to normalcy. I will do exactly that.
My commitment is to ensure the transition is orderly, the country is stabilized, and Iranians determine their future through the ballot box. We will not repeat the mistakes of past transitions. We will avoid de-Baathification scenarios and maintain as many bureaucrats and public servants in the transition as possible.
Iranians have made their choice — at an enormous price. Now I ask our friends in the Arab world to join us. To prepare to recognize and engage our transitional government.
We will rebuild our nation not for expansion, but to serve the Iranian people. We will base our diplomatic relations, not on exportation of ideology, but on mutual respect and shared interests. We will reintegrate into the regional and global economy to increase prosperity for the citizens of all of our nations.
Standing with the Iranian people is not charity. It is a strategic investment in making our region one of the most stable, secure, and prosperous in the world.
Together, we can build a Middle East our children will be proud to inherit.
Take this new path with us.
BREAKING: The United States has confirmed B-52 Stratofortress bombers are now striking Iran.
Understand what this means by understanding the sequence.
On February 28, the US sent B-2 Spirits. The B-2 is a stealth bomber. It costs $2.1 billion per aircraft. The US has 20 of them. You send B-2s when the enemy’s air defences are intact and you need to penetrate undetected. Four B-2s dropped 160,000 pounds of bunker-busting ordnance on hardened underground facilities in the opening wave.
On March 2, the US sent B-1 Lancers. The B-1 is a supersonic bomber. Faster than the B-2 but not stealth. You send B-1s when air defences have been degraded enough that speed, not invisibility, is sufficient to survive. The B-1s conducted the deepest raids into Iran since 2003.
On March 3, the US sent B-52s. The B-52 is a 70-year-old subsonic aircraft. It is not stealth. It is not fast. It has a radar cross-section the size of a barn. It flies at 650 miles per hour at 50,000 feet and it is visible to every radar system on earth.
You send B-52s when there is nothing left to shoot them down.
That is the sequence. B-2 when defences are lethal. B-1 when defences are degraded. B-52 when defences are gone. The US Air Force just told you, through aircraft selection alone, that Iran’s integrated air defence network no longer exists as a functional system.
The B-52 carries 70,000 pounds of ordnance per sortie. It can launch cruise missiles from standoff range without entering defended airspace at all. The US has 76 of them versus 20 B-2s. Deploying B-52s quadruples the available bomber strike capacity, and each aircraft can deliver more payload per sortie than any other platform in the inventory.
1,700 targets struck. 300 new sites added in the latest wave. $779 million in ordnance expended on the first day alone. Six American service members killed. Eleven aircraft lost. The campaign is intensifying, not tapering.
Here is where this connects to every post I have written today.
The B-52 deployment proves the conventional campaign is succeeding. Iran’s air defences are neutralised. Its underground facilities are being collapsed. Its missile production is being destroyed. Its leadership is being eliminated.
And the Strait of Hormuz is still closed.
Because the B-52 cannot sink a mine. It cannot intercept a Shahed drone launched from a fishing boat. It cannot neutralise an anti-ship missile on a mobile coastal launcher. It cannot stop a proxy in Yemen from firing at a tanker in the Red Sea. The asymmetric threat that closes shipping lanes operates beneath the altitude where strategic bombers are relevant.
The US is winning the war it chose to fight. It is not winning the war the insurance market cares about. The B-52 is the most powerful expression of that gap.
70,000 pounds of ordnance per sortie. And Lloyd’s of London still will not write a policy for a tanker transiting Hormuz.
That is the thesis. In one sentence.
https://t.co/ULBgEzZ3A8
Why aren’t these pictures from Iran all over the front pages of mainstream media outlets?
For the record.
Wall Street Still Hasn’t Done the Math.
The US has quietly turned itself into a giant floating‑rate borrower. With T‑bills dominating new issuance, the federal budget’s interest bill now moves almost tick‑for‑tick with the Fed’s policy rate. That was lethal on the way up. It is incredibly powerful on the way down.
Here’s the uncomfortable truth: Trump’s economic regime is deficit‑friendly and wait till the Fed cuts to neutral.
A bill‑heavy structure means that once the funds rate drops toward a neutral ~2.75%, the government’s effective interest cost falls fast as bills and short notes roll. Supply‑side policies raise growth and nominal GDP; tariffs add incremental revenue. Together, they push the debt ratio in the right direction without the political theater of “austerity.” Suddenly, Bessent’s 3%‑of‑GDP deficit world looks less like fantasy and more like the natural resting point of a high‑debt sovereign whose reference rate is finally set correctly.
The real 2026 surprise is not another inflation scare or a bond crash. It is that Wall Street finally does the math. Growth holds up, Trump’s mix of supply‑side policy and tariffs proves more cash‑flow friendly than the models expected, the Fed is forced to cut back to neutral and, contrary to the doomsday narrative, the long end follows lower as markets reprice the path of interest costs and the sustainability of the debt stock.
The consensus spent years screaming “fiscal crisis” at precisely the moment when the structure of the debt, the direction of policy, and the trajectory of rates were quietly lining up to make the deficit smaller, not bigger.
1. Look people in the eyes with confidence.
2. Have a firm handshake.
3. Be brave. Even if you’re not, pretend to be. No one can tell the difference.
4. Learn to keep secrets. Not everything needs to be shared.
5. When someone hugs you, let them be the first to let go.
6. Own a great stereo system and begin each day with some of your favorite music.
7. Sing in the shower.
8. Always accept an outstretched hand.
9. Avoid sarcastic remarks.
10. If in a fight, hit first and hit hard.
11. Have a grateful heart and be quick to acknowledge those who helped you.
12. Never give up on anybody. Miracles happen every day.
13. Choose your life’s mate carefully. From this one decision will come 90% of all your happiness or misery.
14. Make it a habit to do nice things for people who will never find out.
15. Lend only those books you never care to see again.
16. Give people a second chance, but not a third.
17. Be bold and courageous. When you look back on life, you’ll regret the things you didn’t do more than the ones you did.
18. Become the most positive and enthusiastic person you know.
19. Think twice before burdening a friend with a secret.
20. Be modest. A lot was accomplished before you were born.
21. Take charge of your attitude, don’t let someone else choose it for you.
22. Relax. Except for rare life-and-death matters, nothing is as important as it first seems.
23. Don’t burn bridges. You’ll be surprised how many times you have to cross the same river.
24. Count your blessings, not your problems.
25. When playing games with children, let them win.
26. In life, you never lose. You either win or you learn.
27. Never deprive someone of hope; it might be all that they have.
28. Live your life so that your epitaph could read, “No Regrets!”.
29. Don’t allow the phone to interrupt important moments. It’s there for our convenience, not the caller’s.
30. Be romantic.
31. Keep it simple and focus on what matters. Don't let yourself be overwhelmed.
32. Never waste an opportunity to tell someone you love them.
33. Visit your friends and relatives when they are in the hospital. You need only stay a few minutes.
34. Once in a while, take the scenic route.
35. Answer the phone with ENTHUSIASM and ENERGY in your voice.
36. Send a lot of Valentine cards. Sign them, “Someone who thinks you’re terrific.”
37. Keep a notepad by your bed. Million-dollar ideas sometimes strike at 3 a.m.
38. Life’s not fair. Don’t expect it to be.
39. Respect everyone who earns their living. Every job has value, no matter how small it may seem.
40. Marry only for love. Because you don’t marry someone you can live with. You marry the person who you cannot live without.
41. Compliment the meal when you’re a guest in someone’s home.
42. Send your loved ones flowers. Think of a reason later.
43. Become the hero someone needs.
44. Remember that 80% of the success in any job is based on your ability to deal with people.
45. There is always something you can do today, to make your future better. Do that.
46. When you are angry, stay silent.
47. You’re being judged no matter what, so be who you want to be.
48. Sometimes you need to stop seeing the good in people and start seeing what they show you.
49. Make peace with your past so it won’t screw up the present.
50. Be selfish with your time, a lot of people don’t deserve it.
Amazing 50 quotes from an 80-year old man.
Yes the Fed is too tight!!!
The contradictions in the Federal Reserve’s current posture are glaring. In the same week the New York Fed convenes banks to discuss systemic risk, Fed officials acknowledge the labor market’s softening, yet claim it’s beyond the reach of rate cuts. Meanwhile, they remain willfully blind to the collateral damage their policy has inflicted on housing, still leaning on flawed Owners’ Equivalent Rent data that exaggerates inflation long after real shelter costs peaked.
The core issue is simple. There is no defensible reason for the federal funds rate to remain above the neutral rate, r*, the point where policy is neither restrictive nor stimulative. Empirical evidence shows r* is falling, not rising. Demographic slowdowns, especially the sharp decline in immigration, lower long-run potential growth and therefore the neutral rate. Even the latest San Francisco Fed research confirms what many of us have argued all along, tariffs are not inflationary in practice.
By ignoring these structural shifts and misreading lag effects that extend well beyond a year, the Fed has over-tightened. It is, once again, late to its own cycle. A funds rate near 2.75% would be more consistent with equilibrium conditions today. Instead, the Fed’s miscalibration has triggered a policy-induced housing recession, one entirely of its own making. The upshot, the level of incompetence at the Fed is historic. The Progressive left Keynesian era at the Fed needs to come to an end.
Listen to this father.
We need to hold judges & DAs responsible for releasing vicious murderers on innocent victims.
https://t.co/tywRva8qvI
You can tell a lot about a person by how they react when someone dies.
https://t.co/w6ES8shu26
🚨BREAKING: Tesla owners are scrambling to remove their anti Elon stickers from their car now that he is feuding with Trump
Whatever.
Keep the EV/solar incentive cuts in the bill, even though no oil & gas subsidies are touched (very unfair!!), but ditch the MOUNTAIN of DISGUSTING PORK in the bill.
In the entire history of civilization, there has never been legislation that both big and beautiful. Everyone knows this!
Either you get a big and ugly bill or a slim and beautiful bill.
Slim and beautiful is the way.
In November next year, we fire all politicians who betrayed the American people
This chart and update are a code red for the monetary plumbing — and here’s the deep signal beneath it:
⸻
What’s Happening with SOFR:
•SOFR 3Y swap spreads plunging to all-time lows means there’s an acute dislocation between bank funding costs and Treasury yields.
•Translation: banks are getting choked. Liquidity is vanishing.
•The spread going this negative suggests counterparty risk is rising, and interbank trust is breaking down — banks don’t want to lend to each other without a premium.
⸻
Deeper Meaning: Systemic Stress Is Back
This isn’t just a weird technical glitch — it’s a reflexive liquidity fracture.
•SOFR is the Fed’s chosen benchmark — if SOFR plumbing breaks, the Fed’s credibility is under threat.
•This is exactly what happens before forced liquidity actions (rate cuts, standing repo, QE whispers).
⸻
Reflexive Interpretation:
This is the market’s way of saying:
“We don’t care what Powell wants — you’re cutting. Or we’ll snap the whole system.”
It’s no longer about inflation.
It’s about mechanical liquidity survival.
⸻
What It Means for the Fed:
•This chart alone could accelerate the timeline for:
•Emergency repo injections
•Soft pivot language at the next FOMC
•Unscheduled liquidity provisions if spreads worsen this week
⸻
And for Bitcoin:
This is reflexive fuel.
•If the Fed is forced to intervene — even quietly — Bitcoin front-runs it.
•This is exactly the kind of “monetary fracture” moment that Bitcoin was designed to thrive in.
⸻
Core Insight:
When the Fed’s benchmark rate disconnects from its funding market, belief breaks.
When belief breaks, Bitcoin is the only collateral that doesn’t depend on trust.
@mrp @RealPNavarro @JoeSquawk @SquawkCNBC Tesla has the most American-made cars. Navarro is dumber than a sack of bricks.
@IfindRetards @RealPNavarro
https://t.co/gECgtZt5Sc
Who would have thought that Trump was actually the most high tax American President in generations.
Through his tariff strategy, Trump has implemented a structural, permanent tax on the American consumer.
Even if he is successful in bringing jobs on shore through the tariff tax, prices will remain high and the tax on consumption will remain the form of higher prices because we are simply not as good at making all things.
A tax on consumption also means less consumption. Which means less jobs. Which in turn leads to less consumption. And then even less jobs.
America has incredible strengths. We should play to those strengths, and not be forced to play to our weaknesses. Same with the rest of the world.
🇺🇸 “Stop giving us Chinese jobs, I want to wear Nikes … not make them”
— Chappelle
I just figured out why @howardlutnick is indifferent to the stock market and the economy crashing. He and Cantor are long bonds. He profits when our economy implodes.
It’s a bad idea to pick a Secretary of Commerce whose firm is levered long fixed income. It’s an irreconcilable conflict of interest.
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