Wyllian Capucci

Estrategista macro multimercado global 🇺🇸 Aprenda a operar o posicionamento do mercado nas opções para operar os futuros americanos e montar sua carteira.

[Wyllian Capucci @wcapucci]

@davidsettle @MikeZaccardi Freestyle median

[Wyllian Capucci @wcapucci]

The art of the deal #trump

[Wyllian Capucci @wcapucci]

@FritzOptions @SullyCNBC Are you retarded?

[Wyllian Capucci @wcapucci]

@quine_crypto @DeItaone He means the escalation is way beyond the maximum level, like a 12 or 15 on a scale of 10. Not the most logical way to say it, but… that’s Trump.

[Wyllian Capucci @wcapucci]

@Got_Colo @zerohedge At this level of Fed Funds and swap pricing, it’s almost impossible for the Fed to surprise on the upside.

[Wyllian Capucci @wcapucci]

@BarryMGee @zerohedge Opendoor (+43% today)

[Wyllian Capucci @wcapucci]

@subwaysurfers esse jogo é muito legal e bom para passar um tempo 🌈♦️🍬🍭

[Wyllian Capucci @wcapucci]

Tiraram esse moleque da cama sem nem pentear o cabelo, pra construir uma retórica de que a DeepSeek tem 50 mil chips H100 contrabandeados. É claro, isso é muito melhor pras ações do que dizer que essa empresa gastou apenas $5,6milhões apenas e fez um modelo melhor e de graça.

[Chubby♨️ @kimmonismus]

Billionaire and Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang: DeepSeek has about 50,000 NVIDIA H100s that they can't talk about because of the US export controls that are in place.

[Wyllian Capucci @wcapucci]

O jornalista brasileiro é um bicho meio doido: fica feliz com a censura e banimento do X no Brasil, mas continua postando matéria aqui.

[Wyllian Capucci @wcapucci]

Tamo na área

[Sina 🗝️⚡ BI Report @Snz_BTC]

Jiangxi Bank of China goes under

China's banking sector is facing a full-scale crisis. In just one week, 40 banks disappeared, absorbed into larger institutions.

Today, Jiangxi Bank of China went under, further escalating the crisis.

China's smaller banks are struggling with bad loans and exposure to the ongoing property crisis.

Scope of the Problem
Some 3,800 such troubled institutions exist. They have 55 trillion yuan ($7.5 trillion) in assets—13% of the total banking system—and have long been mismanaged, accruing vast amounts of bad loans. Many have lent to real estate developers and local governments, gaining exposure to China’s property crisis. In recent years, some have revealed that 40% of their books are made up of non-performing loans.

Bank of Jiujiang, a mid-tier lender, recently revealed that its profits might fall by 30% due to poorly performing loans. This rare disclosure highlights the severity of the situation. The authorities have been pushing for more transparency, but the true extent of the bad debt problem is still emerging. The four state AMCs created to manage bad debts are now struggling themselves, with one needing a $6.6 billion bailout in 2021.

Disappearing Banks!
China’s main way of dealing with small, feeble banks: making them disappear. Of the 40 institutions that vanished recently, 36 were in the Liaoning province and absorbed into a new lender, called Liaoning Rural Commercial Bank, which was created as a receptacle for bad banks. Since it was set up in September, five other institutions have been established to do similar work, with more expected.

The Root Cause: Property Sector Recession
The root cause? China's property sector is in a deep recession. Overextended real-estate developers and local governments have defaulted on loans, creating a cascade of financial instability. Property prices have plummeted, and construction projects have stalled, further straining the financial system.

Hidden Bad Debts and Regulatory Crackdown
Adding to the complexity, banks have been using asset-management companies (AMCs) to offload toxic loans, creating a facade of stability. These AMCs buy bad loans but avoid taking on the credit risks, leading to a buildup of hidden bad debts. The National Administration of Financial Regulation (NAFR), a new banking regulator, has been cracking down on these practices, issuing fines and increasing oversight.

What is Coming?
This regulatory vanishing act will probably pick up pace. S&P Global, a rating agency, reckons it will take a decade to complete the project. While fewer bigger banks are easier to regulate, combining dozens of bad banks only creates bigger, badder banks.

The fact remains that the Chinese economy is in an extended and pretend state. Years of credit-fueled growth has finally run its course, and the result will be. lower growth for China and a negative impact on the global economy. Slower growth of the Chinese economy will, in turn, exacerbate their banking problems too.

This will very likely end in massive liquidity injections, stimulation of the economy, and investors flocking to hard assets.

[Wyllian Capucci @wcapucci]

@zerohedge They are focused on other things now, rather than the infrastructure working properly

[Wyllian Capucci @wcapucci]

https://t.co/X7MHVEj3cC

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

The 3-month annualized rate was 3.46%, down from the previous two months but still higher than any point in 2H 2023

This report was largely anticipated two weeks ago and won't change much of anything for the near-term Fed outlook of "wait and see."

[Wyllian Capucci @wcapucci]

Goldman analysts completely ignored the Big Data models (which printed a weak NFP for today) that the bank itself spent millions to develop, with an estimate of 275k (100k more) driven by immigrants and seasonals, trying to get the manipulation right from the BLS.

#NFP #payroll

[Wyllian Capucci @wcapucci]

@zerohedge Goldman analysts completely ignored the Big Data models (which printed a weak NFP for today) that the bank itself spent millions to develop, with an estimate of 275k (100k more) driven by immigrants and seasonals, trying to get the manipulation right from the BLS.

[Wyllian Capucci @wcapucci]

@DanielBZhao What do you think about all these BLS employment data being quite detached from reality and other indicators?

[The Cultural Tutor @culturaltutor]

It sounds like a boring topic, but air conditioning is more important than you realise.

First: there are 2 billion air con units in the world and they account for 10% of all electricity we use.

Second: it has revolutionised architecture and totally reshaped global politics...

[Wyllian Capucci @wcapucci]

@zerohedge Minister Alexandre de Moraes has started preparations to ban X in Brazil, after Musk tweets. If this materializes, Brazil will join China, Iran, North Korea, and Turkey, which have already banned the platform.

[Wyllian Capucci @wcapucci]

O que você precisa saber para hoje? 24/01/2024

Link: https://t.co/5EIPpLFNHk

Ações disparam após cortes de RRR do PBoC, NFLX +9,7% pré-mercado, dólar mais fraco e oferta de GBP pós-PMI; PMI dos EUA devido

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

1/23

A long 🧵on the biggest economic issue not being discussed ... global shipping problems and potential return of goods inflation.

Below uses IMF Port call data on shipping traffic (via ship transponders and satellites).

https://t.co/ZmJaz2WE4R

@mercoglianos @johnkonrad