I've been trading/investing since 2007.
I've seen:
the financial crisis
QE
zero-interest rates
COVID
inflation
crypto cycles
meme-stock mania
AI mania
I share my experience and insights:
→ market setups
→ macro observations
→ trading lessons
→ options strategies
→ wealth-building ideas
→ mistakes I've made
→ what I'm watching next
And I've learned one thing:
The market rewards preparation, not prediction.
5/5
So what do you actually do with this?
Before the event, check the forecast, study the recent price move and ask how much optimism or pessimism may already be reflected.
After the announcement, look beyond the headline. Did guidance change? Did the outlook improve enough to beat expectations? Is price holding its initial move or reversing?
You don’t have to catch the first candle. Let the reaction develop if the picture is unclear.
And remember: “priced in” is an explanation to investigate, not a magic phrase that predicts every move.
1/5 🧵
Ever seen a company report fantastic earnings… only for the stock to get absolutely battered?
Revenue up. Profits up. Your position? Down. 😭
Before you start shouting “the market is rigged,” ask yourself: what was everyone expecting?
If the stock rallied for weeks ahead of earnings, investors may have already paid for those good results. Delivering what everyone expected might leave little reason for fresh buying.
The announcement confirms the story. It doesn’t necessarily give the market a new reason to push the price higher. solana:EWZzCki1igp2y73UyUM4RCG4QUVMQAtnrQUVNaDHzDxJ
4/5
Now add positioning and things can get messy very quickly.
Suppose lots of traders have bought the dollar because they expect interest rates to stay high.
The Fed confirms that outlook. The dollar barely moves. Much of that buying has already happened.
But imagine the Fed unexpectedly sounds more willing to cut rates. Those same traders may rush to close their positions.
Their selling can make the move sharper.
When a trade gets crowded, a small surprise can cause a big reaction. Confidence doesn’t remove risk; sometimes it concentrates it.
“Trading creates zero value for society.”
People say this with confidence, then get uncomfortable when you ask what tangible value their own white-collar job creates.
Apparently, questioning someone else’s contribution is easier than examining your own.
Speak these affirmations over your week:
1. My body is healthy, my mind is clear and I have strength for the week ahead.
2. This week, I welcome opportunities to grow, earn, and prosper.
2. God’s grace carries me through each day with peace and confidence.
4. I am highly favoured and the right doors open for me.
5. Goodness and mercy follow me wherever I go.
6. The work of my hands is blessed and my efforts bear good fruit.
7. My needs are met and I have enough to share generously.
8. God orders my steps and gives me wisdom in every decision.
9. The right people, ideas and opportunities come into my life.
10. This week, I move forward with purpose, recognise my progress and make room for joy.
OPENAI reportedly cut its fundraising valuation from $1.4 trillion to $1.25 trillion after investors pushed back.
A $150 billion reality check - or still too ambitious?
- - - -
An 11% haircut isn't a collapse, but it does show investors are negotiating price even at this scale.
Since it's all reported and not confirmed, it would be nice to see where the round actually closes.
What matters more than the headline number is what growth the valuation needs to be justified from here.
Part of me thinks someone was getting liquidated yesterday, and the forced selling might not be over today. Had a real “Margin Call” feel to it.
Reminded me of the Leo bottom.
Stop Chasing the Jackpot
#Educational 👇
Every trade doesn’t need to change your life. Expecting it to is how you end up risking too much, holding too long and turning a manageable loss into a serious problem.
A strong bull market makes that easy to forget. Prices keep rising, confidence grows, and suddenly everyone with a following sounds like they’ve cracked the market.
But you still need an entry, a reason to enter now and a clear exit if you’re wrong.
That story you heard three months ago might still have merit. The question is how much of it is already in the price. Markets keep adjusting to fresh information. You can’t assume yesterday’s opportunity is still available on yesterday’s terms.
“Supply is tight.”
“The company is undervalued.”
“The order book stretches for years.”
Fine. But what makes the stock move before your option expires?
A business could have an excellent decade ahead while your weekly calls expire worthless. Buying more time costs more too, so the trade still needs to make sense at the price you’re paying.
And be careful with those 100% winners and 5,000% return screenshots. You’re seeing a selected result. You don’t know the losses, the position size or whether anyone could repeat it consistently. When there’s a subscription link underneath, remember what’s being sold.
Take the trades your plan supports. Accept that some will lose. Stop asking every position to deliver a jackpot.
In other news: turn on 2FA for every online account you have.
You don’t want to wake up and find an AI agent using your account to run errands for its master.
You’re still in bed. Your account has already clocked in for somebody else.
Today's Product Spotlight: Wise.
Two friends from Estonia kept losing money to bank fees when they changed pounds and euros. So they stopped using the bank and swapped money with each other.
Kristo Käärmann was paid in pounds but needed euros in Estonia. Taavet Hinrikus, the first employee of Skype, was paid in euros but needed pounds in London. Each month they swapped at the fair rate. No bank fee.
In 2011 they turned this idea into TransferWise. Today it is called Wise.
In the year to March 2026, about 19 million people and businesses used it. They moved over 240 billion dollars between countries. In May 2026, Wise moved its main share listing from London to New York.
A big business can start with a small cost you are tired of paying.
You already know what keeps costing you.
The trade you chase.
The stop you move.
The extra position you take because you want your money back today.
Afterwards, you promise yourself you’ll be more disciplined.
Then the next loss comes, the emotions return, and your rules become negotiable again.
A promise made after the damage means little if it disappears under pressure.
Progress starts when you feel the urge to repeat the mistake and choose to follow your rules anyway.
Let the Market Finish Its Sentence
You don’t need an opinion on every economic release to be a good trader. But it helps to notice when the market isn’t behaving as you’d expect.
If bond yields are falling, why are growth stocks still struggling? If the S&P is pushing higher, why isn’t the Nasdaq joining in? Is the rally spreading, or are a handful of stocks doing all the work?
You don’t need an immediate answer. Those questions give you something useful to watch.
The open can make everything feel urgent. A candle jumps, your watchlist lights up, and suddenly sitting still feels like falling behind.
Give yourself a minute. See what holds, what fades and where buyers keep showing up.
Sometimes you’ll miss a move while watching. That’s fine. There will be others.
I’d rather enter with a reason I can explain than spend the rest of the morning managing a trade I rushed into.