Just reviewing some of the companies on #NGX and I genuinely struggle to justify some of these valuations.
Many stocks appear to be trading on hype rather than fundamentals. That works on the way up, until it doesn't.
My concern is for the average investor seeing green candles and assuming the market only moves in one direction.
At some point, reality catches up. When it does, many will lose both money and years waiting to break even.
We shall see, said the blind man.
#Investing #Stocks #Nigeria
SpaceX IPO: The Rocket Has Launched. What Happens Next? 🚀
SpaceX exploded onto public markets, surging 19% on its debut and closing with a staggering $2.1 trillion valuation, instantly becoming one of the world's largest companies.
The bullish case is simple: investors aren't buying today's earnings. They're buying Starlink, AI infrastructure, defence contracts, space-based data centres, Mars ambitions and Elon Musk's vision. With only 4% of shares available for trading and Nasdaq 100 inclusion potentially around the corner, demand could remain intense.
But the real test starts now. Earnings, analyst coverage and insider lock-up expirations will reveal whether the fundamentals can catch up with the narrative. History shows that the biggest IPOs often become a battle between story and valuation.
The rocket has left the launchpad. The question is whether investors are witnessing the start of the next great growth story or simply the largest transfer of wealth from institutions to retail in market history.
The brutal reality of currency devaluation on investments.
If you invested $10,000 in 2016 and held for 10 years, here is what your money looks like today (in USD terms):
1️⃣ SMH (Semiconductors): $236,983 (+2,269.83%)
2️⃣ QQQ (Nasdaq-100): $71,352 (+613.52%)
3️⃣ SPY (S&P 500): $41,660 (+316.60%)
4️⃣ NGX Nigeria (All-Share): $12,828 (+28.30%)
The Illusion of Local Returns:
Nigeria’s NGX surged an incredible +777% in local Naira terms. It felt like a massive bull run.
The Devaluation Trap:
Because the Naira collapsed from ₦198.98/$1 to ₦1,361/$1 over the decade, international investors walked away with a measly 2.5% annualized return.
Takeaway:
Never confuse local currency growth with real wealth creation.
If your base currency is USD/GBP, structural currency weakness will wipe out even the strongest local market gains.
@maziNdu4Real Keep buying the top. One day you’ll learn. My brother.. please look at the charts. You’re paying very expensive premium. Stop buying please and hold cash. I beg you.
The Hardest Trade To Take
“The key is to wait. Sometimes the hardest thing to do is to do nothing.” - David Tepper
I like this quote because it’s a good reminder that even billion-dollar hedge fund pros like Tepper treat “no trade” as part of their trading system.
And if you’ve been doing this for any length of time, you know that’s far harder than it sounds.
Patience takes real mental energy, focus and discipline.
It’s not easy to sit on our hands watching ticks while waiting for a high-probability set up. Maybe the only one we get all session.
But remember, in this game…
No trade is better than a bad trade.
No trade is better than a bad trade.
No trade is better than a bad trade.
We wait for our pitch, then we swing.
Everyone is excited about SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs.
That's exactly when investors should be most careful.
A few reminders:
• Buy the business, not the buzz.
• Day 1 is often the most dangerous day to buy.
• The best opportunities frequently appear AFTER the hype fades.
• Position sizing matters more than conviction.
• Volatility is guaranteed. Success isn't.
Facebook fell ~50% after its IPO.
Amazon and Netflix endured brutal drawdowns before becoming giants.
The crowd focuses on the opening bell.
Smart money focuses on the next 5-10 years.
With SpaceX potentially listing this week, remember:
Patience is a position.
Sometimes the best trade is letting everyone else fight over the first candle.
What’s your plan for the SpaceX IPO?
This is me and AI right now. Story time 👇🏾
A gym owner walks into a high-end commercial fitness showroom to look at a new brand of smart, connected exercise bikes.
The salesperson says, "These use an AI coach. They are $1,000 each."
The gym owner says, "Alright, deliver 5 of them to my studio."
A month later, he stops back in. The salesperson says, "Incredible intuition. An influencer posted about them. They are $3,000 now."
The owner gets excited and orders 20 more.
A few weeks later, he calls the showroom. The bikes are now $6,000. Sensing a massive fitness craze, he buys 100 more, planning to lease them out.
The next week they hit $12,000. He buys 500 more.
Then they hit $20,000. He buys another 1,000.
Then they reach a staggering $35,000 each. The gym owner finally thinks, alright, this boutique fitness hype has to cool down eventually. Time to cash in on the inventory.
So he tells the salesperson, "I want to return 200 of my unboxed bikes for a refund."
After a long, awkward silence, the salesperson looks at the empty showroom floor and says:
"Refund with what money? We used your cash to pay our manufacturers, and nobody else has bought a single bike."
A corporate pyramid scheme that will eventually hit its geographic limit.
Is Trading 80% Psychology?
Traders,
Repeat after me:
“My brain is a terrible risk manager when money is moving in real time.”
Might even be worth writing down and slapping to your screen?
Because one of the most valuable lessons experienced traders eventually learn is also one of the most uncomfortable…
Leaving risk decisions to your brain in the heat of the moment is usually a bad idea.
It’s why Tony Robbins has said:
“Success is 80% psychology and 20% mechanics.”
And in trading, that 80% slaps us in the face right from the bell.
When a trade is winning, it wants to grab profit early. When a trade is losing, it wants to wait, hope, and give it more room.
Cut winners short.
Let losers run.
The exact opposite of what good trading requires.
Which is why rules matter so much.
Not loose suggestions.
Not mental checklists.
But clear, written-out, non-negotiable rules.
Because a trading rule helps us make a decision before our emotions get involved, before our P&L starts moving, and before our brain starts negotiating.
So as we kick off a new week…
Take a minute and write your rules down. Seriously.
It’ll help you know when you’re wrong.
It’ll help you know when you’re done.
But most importantly, that kind of consistent discipline…
Is what helps you to get in, get out, and get paid.
Alright, let’s get after it and have a green day!
Bank of America’s Bull & Bear Indicator just ticked up to 8.7, triggering a clear contrarian SELL signal.
Here is what is driving the extreme bullishness:
- FMS Positioning: 99th percentile (Very Bullish)
- Bond Flow: 89th percentile (Very Bullish)
- Credit Market Technicals: 76th percentile (Bullish)
- Global Stock Index Breadth: 73rd percentile (Bullish)
When everyone is max bullish, history favours caution. Time to hedge? 📊
The June Playbook
Everyone is bullish right now, but a major market shifts starting mid-June.
This isn’t a guess, it’s math and history playing out.
If you want to protect your capital, you need to understand the 4 major catalysts combining to create a perfect storm.
Here is exactly what is brewing and why the market is heading into a danger zone:
1️⃣ The IPO Drain (Starts June 15)
Massive listings like $SPCX are acting as liquidity vacuums.
•The Mechanics: Large institutions are forced to dump liquid mega-caps to fund their new IPO allocations.
•The Collateral Damage: Core tech giants like NVIDIA, Apple, and Amazon face selling pressure, while smaller tech/growth names like DRAM and SanDisk see rapid outflows as capital rotates out.
•The Result: A widespread market sell-off wave.
2️⃣ The Hawkish FOMC Reality Check (June 17)
Kevin Warsh’s stance is signaling a strictly hawkish Fed, forcing the market to reprice risk.
•High Duration Squeezed: Higher rate expectations crush growth stocks like Tesla.
•Speculative Tech Suffers: Unprofitable or highly speculative plays like IONQ, Rocket Lab, Bloom Energy, and AST SpaceMobile crater when discount rates and the cost of capital spike.
•The Result: Rates up, risk off.
3️⃣ Micron & Oracle Earnings: The Cyclical Peak
The upcoming earnings reports represent the absolute top of the current market narrative.
•The Warning Sign: Peak earnings historically precede a 30-40% drawdown in semiconductors.
•The Domino Effect: Forward guidance cuts from cyclical bellwethers ripple straight through the chip supply chain (AMD, Marvell).
•AI Fatigue: When AI capex spending expectations soften, the valuation floor falls out for high-flyers like NVIDIA and AAOI.
•The Result: Confirmation of a structural market top.
4️⃣ Midterm Election Headwinds
Political shifts are injecting heavy macro uncertainty back into the calculations.
•Enterprise Stalls: Tech buyers delay massive software infrastructure updates (ServiceNow, Vertiv, Lumentum, Nebius).
•High Volatility Sectors: Regulatory uncertainty hammers crypto mining and infrastructure assets (IREN, Keel, TE Connectivity).
•The Result: Multiple compression across enterprise multiples.
📉 The Bottom Line: What to Expect Next
•A 5% to 10% pull-back beginning mid-June.
•Volatility spikes across the board.
•Market leaders will drop much faster and harder than defensive laggards.
The market has too much liquidity chasing too few deals, colliding with higher rates and slowing guidance.
Don't panic; prepare. Use this correction to reload your favourite long-term convictions at a deep discount.
What’s the #1 trading skill you’re working to develop?
“Discipline to take my profit daily.”
“Patience! No more revenge trades.”
“Mastering my risk management especially when I’m up.”
“Working on just waiting on the trade and not forcing it.”
“Getting better at reading order flow.”
Alright, let’s finish the week green!
Stop Obsessing Over P&L. Trust the Process.
One of the hardest shifts as a trader? Learning to ignore the noise when the market action cools off.
Pullbacks are a normal part of healthy trends. If you obsess over every red bar, you cut good trades short.
For everyone trading PDT-free: how’s the game looking out there? 🚀
Is the lack of restrictions making it easier to lock in profits or are the setups still just as tricky?
Let’s hear your reports! 📊📉