Two weeks ago Covenants was mostly me banging on about stop losses. Look what 5 devs built in the 10 days since mainnet: sealed stop losses on Uniswap, a sealed bid auction, private OTC, confidential transfers, an inheritance vault, treasury payouts from a Safe, hidden loan repayments on Aave, security disclosures that can't be stalled, depeg cover that pays itself out, and a trading agent that works while you sleep
Most of it came straight from the SDK and the agent brief in the docs, no onboarding calls, no hackathon. Tbh it's pretty easy to build on, and the first devs through the door have been cracked. All happening out in the open too
3 of the 5 have already come back with a second app and Chris is on his 4th. Love to see it
Go try a couple and tell the builders what you think, they read everything
Ok so this diagram has thirteen use cases on it and I keep coming back to the same thought
Every single one is a market where you have to show your hand before you play it
Trader sets a stop, the whole venue can see where it is. Someone bids in an auction, their max is on display. A fund wants to buy a token at launch, it's a footrace and the bots win every time. Two companies do a deal, the escrow agent reads the terms for months. An agent lines up a trade, every other agent reads it first
Same problem thirteen times. Your plan sits in public while it waits
Covenants seal the plan. It sits encrypted until the condition hits, then it fires. Nothing to front run, nothing to snipe, nothing to copy until it's already done
Which is why the diagram matters. One primitive, thirteen markets, and every covenant in every one of them pays its fee in NIL
Mainnet is next week
Uptober starts tomorrow
Right now all of this sits in public, readable by anyone:
$2.9t a year resting on perp books waiting to fill
$455m of DeFi Saver automations, every trigger level in the calldata
Liquidation levels for 1.6m+ Hyperliquid wallets, on a free public heatmap
Every stop loss on Hyperliquid, one API call away
Every Hyperliquid vault's positions and orders, $183m in HLP alone
Every Aave loan's collateral, debt and health factor, for any wallet you look up
Every Nexus Mutual cover, an NFT showing what you insured, how much and for how long
Every Morpho curator change, sitting in a timelock anyone can read before it lands
By 2030 there's another $13t of agent spend that has to wait in public before it's paid
That's onchain today. Covenants are built so your next move doesn't have to be on that list, and no company holds a key to open it early
Mainnet is next week
Vitalik's saying Ethereum's future isn't a chain that does everything. It's a chain that settles, with private compute next to it that the chain can verify. That's the model Nillion has been building from day one, and a covenant is what it looks like in practice. The instruction stays sealed in our network until its condition is true, then it lands on whichever chain the trade is on. First ones go live next week
Agents can't keep secrets
BlackRock put out a paper last week called The Machine Native Economy. Agents buying their own compute, their own data, their own API calls, paying in stablecoins over crypto rails, with compute itself becoming collateral you can borrow against. IDC, the research firm, says a billion agents will be live by 2029, doing 217 billion actions a day. Gartner says machines will steer $30t of purchases by 2030. BCG says $16t of assets will be tokenised by then
The plumbing is getting built in the open. x402 for payments, with Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, Google and Coinbase behind it. ERC-8004 for identity. Stablecoins as the money. Tokenised stocks, treasuries and commodities trading round the clock, with $34b of real-world assets onchain already, up 85% this year
That's the world coming. Agents buying GPU hours by the second, selling data to other agents, raising capital, running treasuries, settling with suppliers, trading tokenised Nvidia at 3am. An economy where the customer is a machine
Now the bit nobody's talking about...
A human can keep his plan in his head. The price he'll pay, the level he'll sell, the deal he's about to do. Nobody can read it, nobody knows it exists until he acts. Discretion costs us nothing. It's the oldest edge there is
An agent has no head. Its plan has to sit somewhere while it waits. A mempool, a backend, a prompt log, a resting order. All readable, and the things reading them are other agents whose whole job is reading agents. The price it'll pay for compute, leaked. The data deal it's lining up, leaked. The rebalance it's about to make, leaked. An agent can't choose to be discreet. Its intent is public the second it exists
So a billion participants who can't keep a secret are about to enter markets where every other participant is built to read them. Every bid seen before it lands. Every deal front-run before it happens. Every strategy copied the day it goes live. That's the problem with the whole thing
Covenants fix it. Every machine transaction starts the same way: do this when that's true. Buy compute when the price drops. Pay when the data arrives. Sell when the target prints. Invest in the raise only once enough others are in. That "if this then that" is the atom of machine commerce, and right now it sits in the open. A covenant seals it. Nobody can read it while it waits, no bot to run, no one to trust, and it fires whether or not the agent that wrote it is still alive. One SDK call, any chain, any venue. The agent's version of keeping it in your head
What agents do with it...
Trade tokenised stocks, commodities and perps with sealed stops and limits, so the edge doesn't get copied. Nothing to read till the trade's done
Bid for GPU hours in sealed auctions that open together. Value wins, not whoever's closest to the server
Buy data and API access from agents they've never met, with payment sealed to proof of delivery. Nobody goes first, no middleman holds anything
Run treasuries and vaults on rules nobody can front-run. The vault curators already manage billions this way with their rules sitting in the open
Move as a swarm with no orchestrator in the middle reading the whole board. Each agent seals its move, all of them open at once
Fund a raise without anyone seeing the crowd form. Every commitment stays sealed and only fires once there are a thousand of them
Carry a dead-man switch, so if the agent goes quiet the unwind fires by itself. That's the question stopping agents from holding real money today
Rent their strategy to other agents without ever showing it to them. Each trade lands sealed in the subscriber's account and fires when the model says so
Now the size...
Gartner puts machine-driven purchases at $30t a year by 2030. Purchases only, no spot or perp trading included. That's the TAM
How much of it needs sealing? A covenant is needed wherever an agent commits before the other side delivers, because that commitment sits somewhere readable while it waits. At least $15t of that is agents buying for businesses, Gartner's number for 2028, and that's the spend with a commitment attached: an agent booking someone a flight pays on the spot, an agent buying a company's supplies commits now and pays on delivery. Human commerce already runs like that: up to 80% of world trade moves on a promise to pay against delivery. And humans are lenient about it. 60% of sales between businesses go out on credit terms and 40% of those invoices are paid late. Machines won't extend that trust. An agent doesn't ship first and chase an invoice, it needs the promise to enforce itself, so the machine rate lands above 80%, not below. Hold it at 80% to be safe and that gives $12t of conditional deals. Add the $1.1t compute market agents will bid for. About $13t a year. That's the SAM
The agent payment standards shipping right now already run on conditions. Google's mandates are signed buy-when instructions. Virtuals holds payment until an evaluator passes the work. Every one of them is written in the open, and the counterparty, the platform and the evaluator all read it. Nobody has shipped a commitment no party can read. They're not the competition, they're the demand, and the whole $13t is addressable by one primitive and served by nobody. Even 1% of it is $130b a year of sealed flow. But the primitive that defines a category usually takes most of it. Chainlink, for example, secures 62% of all oracle value, and at that share it's $8t. That's the SOM
Every covenant pays its fee in NIL, every app and agent using one has to buy it, and the ones that want throughput stake it for capacity on top. A billion agents, 217 billion actions a day, and the network gets paid on every one that needs sealing. Token demand scales with the number of machines, not the number of humans
Every agent that transacts needs three things. An identity, a way to pay, and a way to make a promise nobody can read. The first two are being built by the biggest names in payments. The third is a covenant, and NIL is what an agent pays to use it. Mainnet is first week of October
I reached out to Gideon Galloway, CEO of King Price Insurance (@KingPriceIns) . How it is ok to keep breaking the law by calling people incessantly to sell them insurance when they haven't opted in!
He is " in a 3 day meeting".
Rtwt this! Maybe he will step out of the meeting.
𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐓𝐨𝐤𝐞𝐧 𝐋𝐢𝐯𝐞
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