Daniel Swain

Weather and climate scientist focused on extreme events like floods, droughts, & wildfires on a warming planet.

[Daniel Swain @Weather_West]

@OGCannaKingCA As explained in the thread, this is due to thousands of lightning strikes during severe drought conditions.

[Daniel Swain @Weather_West]

A major new wildfire outbreak is now underway across interior Pacific Northwest, with dozens (or more) new wildfires already popping up in eastern Oregon & Washington following tens of thousands of lightning strikes in region experiencing moderate to extreme drought. #ORwx #WAwx

[Daniel Swain @Weather_West]

A major new wildfire outbreak is now underway across interior Pacific Northwest, with dozens (or more) new wildfires already popping up in eastern Oregon & Washington following tens of thousands of lightning strikes in region experiencing moderate to extreme drought. #ORwx #WAwx

[Daniel Swain @Weather_West]

While these t-storms were not generally dry (associated with brief showers), dry strikes outside of rain cores were common, and even where it rained, antecedent severe drought (following warmest winter & lowest snowpack on record) makes lightning ignitions probable. #WAwx #ORwx

[Daniel Swain @Weather_West]

At least 24 new fires already have notable satellite heat signatures following this "lightning bust," and I would expect dozens more to come as smoldering "holdovers" pop up as temperatures warm and air dries through the weekend. #ORwx #WAwx

[Michael Snyder @SeattleWXGuy]

Numerous Fire starts, close to 20,000 lightning strikes so far with this event! #wawx #orwx

[Dakota Smith @weatherdak]

A firehose of smoke over the Northeast this evening.

Just dreadful.

[Daniel Swain @Weather_West]

A major thunderstorm outbreak is unfolding across the interior Pacific NW. While not "dry thunderstorms" (w/briefly heavy showers), numerous wildfire ignitions are still likely due to strikes outside of rain cores, severe pre-existing drought, & heatwave to follow. #ORwx #WAwx

[Daniel Swain @Weather_West]

On Wed, Jul 15 at 10am PT, I'll host a live virtual office hour on YT focused on Western U.S. monsoonal moisture surge, w/impacts ranging from humid heat (SoCal) to beneficial rainfall (Mountain West) to dry lightning & potential wildfire outbreak (PacNW). https://t.co/GhOSZuRewt

[Daniel Swain @Weather_West]

On Wed, Jul 15 at 10am PT, I'll host a live virtual office hour on YT focused on Western U.S. monsoonal moisture surge, w/impacts ranging from humid heat (SoCal) to beneficial rainfall (Mountain West) to dry lightning & potential wildfire outbreak (PacNW). https://t.co/GhOSZuRewt

[CIRA @CIRA_CSU]

Wildfires have exploded in northern Minnesota and Ontario in the last 24 hours, producing thick smoke plumes and even some pyrocumulonimbus clouds.

The smoke has drifted across eastern Canada and the northeastern U.S., creating hazy skies over those regions today.

[Neil Lareau @nplareau]

The northeast US will be on the receiving end of the exhaust from these fires. Another summer in the #pyrocene.

[Surrey Palms & Exotics @SurreyPalmsWX]

It is hard to believe that this is Manchester this evening. 👀

A city of 600,000 people (2.5 million in the metro) up in northern England… absolutely blanketed in wildfire smoke. 🔥

[NWS Salt Lake City @NWSSaltLakeCity]

Yesterday (July 12th) was quite historic in terms of heat across much of Utah, so here's a look at the records set across the state. In addition to numerous daily records, several all-time high temperatures were met or exceeded yesterday. #utwx

[Zeke Hausfather @hausfath]

If we instead look at the new relative oceanic niño index (RONI) that subtracts out warming across the tropical oceans, 11 of 14 models predict a record strong 2026/2027 El Niño event, with odds of a record sitting around 77%.

[Zeke Hausfather @hausfath]

Currently 13 out of 14 dynamical models expect a record setting event based on the Niño 3.4 region sea surface temperature anomalies (ONI), with overall odds of a record sitting at 91% across all 667 model ensemble members.

[Zeke Hausfather @hausfath]

The 2026/2027 El Niño event has already grown faster than any prior events (at least on an ONI basis). Here its observed and projected future evolution compared to the strongest prior El Niño events in recorded history.

Full analysis at The Climate Brink https://t.co/FvDpZt27zn

[Daniel Swain @Weather_West]

@immen5 @RobMayeda Broad mid-atmospheric ridges generally bring unusually warm weather regardless of season (in fact, we had just such a pattern this past winter across CA and U.S. West & it brought record warmth then also). Record cold is generally occurring less and less frequently these days...

[Daniel Swain @Weather_West]

An even more remarkable map at 4pm local time as additional locations reach/break all-time temperature records in Montana, Wyoming, and Utah. Notably, multiple locations in eastern MT are in 110-115F range, & 109F breaks Salt Lake City's all-time record (again). #UTwx #MTwx #WYwx

[NWS Salt Lake City @NWSSaltLakeCity]

UPDATE: Salt Lake City has now observed a high of 109 degrees so far as of 2:58 PM MDT, which sets a new all-time temperature since records began at the site in 1874. This shatters the previous record of 107 degrees, previously set in 1960, 2002, 2021, and twice in 2022. #utwx