Does El Niño forecasting have their own version of a "hot models" problem?
There are currently 13 seasonal forecast ensembles used to predict future El Niño / La Niña.
Diversity is good, but there remains broad disagreement among them, with some suggesting all-time records.
🧵
25 years ago, 16 years before Hurricane Harvey, Tropical Storm Allison became the flood of record in Texas and Louisiana after the storm dropped heavy rain for 5 days. https://t.co/3ngOMXyN0h
Highest Rainfall (TX): Beaumont: 40.68"
Highest Rainfall (LA): Thibodaux: 29.86"
Hard to believe I’m even writing this.
Meteorological summer hasn’t even begun, yet Paris, France has already logged more days above 32°C (89.6°F) than its annual average.
This is something I have never seen before on satellite.
Clouds perfectly outlining roads.
Just incredibly neat imagery of Houston, Texas this morning.
Massive shoutout to @Emokwx who discovered it.
Tornado reports (SPC Prelim) YTD (Jan. 1 - May 31) compared to (SPC 2001-2024) shows that Illinois is still WAY above average and Mississippi, Wisconsin are above average as well.
Texas is way down, as is much of "Classic" Tornado Alley and Southeast.
In May, only 1-2 tornadoes were reported in Oklahoma and Illinois! https://t.co/Cu4dDsTwVQ
Stunning sky!
🌈 This circumstantial arc stretched across the sky in Seven Valleys today.
Also a hint of a solar halo.
The ice crystals refracting sunlight in the cirrus clouds gave this rainbow appearance without any rain.
📷 Thank you Jay Ryan for this view and always showing off the Southern PA sky for us.
Did you see anything like this by you?
Incredible mothership supercell last night near Centerville, South Dakota!
Some of the best structure I’ve ever seen and had a tornado to top it off.
#sdwx
Earlier this morning, a gorgeous, photogenic shelf cloud was captured by several stationary @cyclonePORT units as it move through West Tennessee! #TNwx
Great video from Alex Capps in Newbern, TN! An ominous shelf cloud rolling in as severe storms push through Dyer County. Thanks for sharing this with us! Keep an eye on the sky if you're in the area today. 🌩️ #TNwx#YallSquad