@sportstradeproj +1983 implies a 4.8% probability but they may have a superior model that tells them it should be closer to 5.3% which would give them a 10% edge . This edge can disappear though when you take a price that much worse than a sharp price and lead to negative ev . Hope that helps
@sportstradeproj From my understanding of sharp money, the edge could already be gone when betting a line negatively crossed with an exchange. For example, on the Stanford ML there is 7k liquidity available to take Miami at -1983 meaning a sharp has put down around 350$ at +1983.