Anthropic just dropped labor market data on AI displacement.
๐ฆ = What AI is already capable of.
๐ฅ = The capacity at which people are using it.
The "Great Recession for white collar workers" scenario they modeled? Unemployment doubling from 3% to 6% in the most exposed jobs.
Not happening yet. But the early signal is there. Hiring of 22 to 25 year olds into AI-exposed roles is already down 14%.
Computer Programmers. Customer Service. Financial Analysts. 67 to 75% of their tasks are already covered.
AI is only at 33% of its theoretical capability.
We are in the early innings.