WeeCapital

Here to make money & sprout some good vibes
The amount of free alpha on X is just amazing Check out my follow list to understand ✌️🚀

[WeeCapital @weecapital]

My $SPX day trading rules:

Scalping:
No trades # limit but a rule of manual close if red

Retry is ok if @ the planned level

Fewer trades means better execution tho, so < 5/day is 🌟

Normal day trading:
One trade @ planned lvl.
If it fails, one retry
If successful, I'm out ✌️

[WeeCapital @weecapital]

@Stockspy1 Smart 👌

[WeeCapital @weecapital]

Looks like #oil is taking a breather here at the 89 area (88.9). If we dip to 88.1 then I will wave the white flag 👋 Otherwise I'll simply leave it open thru the weekend

FAAFO ✌️😁

[WeeCapital @weecapital]

👇 This #oil trade is still running

I just added a lil' bit to my long, as $CrudeOil hit the 90.2 level.

If we get too far below the next level (88.9 ish) then I might pull the plug, but for now I am still in buy the dip mode ✌️
https://t.co/hzAym5snI2

[WeeCapital @weecapital]

I'm long $CrudeOil @ 91.0

I was looking for a trap below the 91.7 level but you never know if #oil tanks even lower, so had to wait for some sort of confirmation

As always, no idea where we go (also #news is a thing ofc. with this particular commodity, heh) 🤓😄

Let's find out

[OilPrice.com @OilandEnergy]

So when do we get a fact check on all the "peace deal" headlines?

[Rosemary Kelanic @RKelanic]

Must-read piece by @Rory_Johnston on what it will take to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if/when the U.S. and Iran reach a deal (linked below).👇

An immediate stockpile of roughly 160 million barrels will be released to the market as trapped tankers exit, but the real issue is the flow problem: getting the roughly 14 mb/d of shut-in production back online.

From a sheer physical perspective, Kuwait has said that could take 3-4 months for its oilfields to resume prewar production levels, though timelines will vary by country. To enable that, the excess oil in onshore storage will need to be cleared to make way for new production.

But physical constraints aside, the bigger issue is whether and when Persian Gulf countries can be assured that a regular outlet for exporting petroleum exists -- i.e. can they trust that Iran will actually *keep* the Strait of Hormuz open, and will it permit a resumption to prewar levels of traffic?

When cast that way, the reasons for the strong resistance of Persian Gulf governments to "allow" Iran any post-war control over Hormuz becomes obvious: Iran could potentially use its leverage over Hormuz to essentially *decide for them* what their new levels of ongoing oil production will be.

Whether, and under what conditions, Iran would try to impose de facto production limits on Gulf states by squeezing Hormuz is unclear.

But my take is that the issue is best left for regional actors to work out themselves. After all, the U.S. has armed and equipped states like the UAE and Saudi Arabia with U.S. materiel for years. Local actors can retaliate impose costs on Iran, too, should Tehran get cute with the Strait of Hormuz. They have means to deter Iran from interference with the strait.

In the most recent war, Gulf countries stayed largely on the sidelines in hopes of minimizing Iranian retaliation (with the UAE a glaring exception, as it conducted significant airstrikes on Iran).

But if the U.S. were not so deeply enmeshed, trying to micromanage everything in the region, 1.) this war would never have happened and Iran would not have discovered the extent of its geographic leverage over Hormuz, and 2.) regional actors would balance each other and work out their political problems without the U.S. -- perhaps more peacefully. The resulting political arrangements would be more durable in the absence of U.S. meddling because they'd more accurately reflect the regional balance of power.

International relations is all about bargaining in the shadow of relative power. With the U.S. constantly and ham-handedly putting its thumbs on the scale, we interrupt and warp local bargaining processes in ways we barely understand -- and keep us trapped in the region.

Trump never should have launched this disastrous war. But he did, and the Persian Gulf won't ever be the same. An irresponsible U.S. regime change war is what provoked Iran into closing the Strait of Hormuz and taking the global economy hostage.

Simply put, we did this to ourselves. Meddling has consequences. And there's no engineered solution that can be attained through U.S. military force that approaches anything like reasonable cost.

The sane response to failure is to change strategies. Trump should drop his blockade in exchange for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Other issues can be handled later. The longer Trump waits, the worse his leverage gets, as the delayed costs of the Hormuz closure finally hit this summer.

And then the U.S. needs to reconsider its entire approach to the Middle East.

All those wrecked U.S. military bases? We should NOT rebuild them -- and not just because our air defenses can't adequately protect them from Iranian missiles and drones.

We need to take this opportunity to drastically scale back U.S. commitments to the region -- not just physical U.S. posture and presence, but the *underlying political commitments* to regional actors, whether it's Israel or Saudi Arabia.

Regional actors can balance Iran. They have more skin in the game and a far better understanding of realities on the ground than Washington ever could.

Rarely do historical events so upend political inertia as the Iran War has. Let's hope that the U.S. can take advantage of this opportunity to redefine its role and trim legacy commitments that no longer serve U.S. interests -- if they ever truly did.

[WeeCapital @weecapital]

@Stockspy1 It just keeps on giving, eh? 😄🙌

[WeeCapital @weecapital]

For the record:
I might hold on to this $CrudeOil trade over the weekend. My reluctance about weekends is mainly with $SPX

Things are a lil' bit different with #oil during these times, as you can prolly imagine ✌️

[WeeCapital @weecapital]

I'm long $CrudeOil @ 91.0

I was looking for a trap below the 91.7 level but you never know if #oil tanks even lower, so had to wait for some sort of confirmation

As always, no idea where we go (also #news is a thing ofc. with this particular commodity, heh) 🤓😄

Let's find out

[WeeCapital @weecapital]

@RealHeel80 Dude 🙌

[WeeCapital @weecapital]

@anandragn Right on 🫡😁

[WeeCapital @weecapital]

@Mayhem4Markets It makes for a nice setup tho 👌

[WeeCapital @weecapital]

In general, I just stick to TA and then read the #news later in order to the 'why' 🦧

The 'why' is of lessor importance in #oil, as you can't foresee wtf is gonna happen around the world 🤷‍♂️😁

[Markets & Mayhem @Mayhem4Markets]

This guy's actual job is to make shit up all day long.

[WeeCapital @weecapital]

@jtrader Nice 🙌

[WeeCapital @weecapital]

Doesn't look like we will get much more #oil for the penny today so I'm gonna sign out 🫡

Closed @ 94.8
A decent day in $CrudeOil for me

Oh, and should stuff happen it's totally fine: Always be happy with surviving another day

FOMO kills accounts ✌️💀

Peez

[WeeCapital @weecapital]

$CrudeOil wants to go but 94.0 is a solid resting base, and 94.8 is a tough barrier today 👊

👇 My 93.0 #oil trade remains open: I wanna see if we can crawl up towards 95+ (NFA) 😵‍💫😄
https://t.co/NJ35EWRje6

[WeeCapital @weecapital]

Retry here @ 93.0

I always give myself one retry, as nailing #oil levels is a tricky biz.

Between 91.7 and 94.0 we have 92.4 93.0 and 93.7 as I see it 🤓

Above 94.9 and 95.3

[WeeCapital @weecapital]

@Stockspy1 ✌️

[Stockspy @Stockspy1]

reminder

this is a good short

$ITUB

[WeeCapital @weecapital]

@TradersRetreat Exactly