Weekly Snacks

Weekly newsletter compiling recent investment pitches, Twitter threads, and research. Insightful info in bite size snacks. | Author @paulcerro

[Weekly Snacks @weeklysnacks]

Launched Weekly Snacks ~6 months ago to bring new ideas to investors.

Thought it would have grown faster but perhaps people don't see the real value.

In today's post, I share how the 97 ideas I've sent have performed since posting.

The results are 💯!

https://t.co/qPBEd1sKw1

[Paul Cerro @paulcerro]

A quick 2024 win story to share

I took a chance earlier in the year to start charging for the equity research that I've put out in the prior two years via @cedargrovecm and looking back, it's been very rewarding.

As of market close Friday, the multi-strategy portfolio is up 38.7% since Q2 (when we launched the new strategy) and has beaten its respective benchmarks by 22 p.p. for the S&P (SPY) and 27 p.p. for the Russell 2000 (IWM).

In 2024 to-date, we have

🟢 Published 50 reports (+15 y/y).
🟢 Drove >150,000 views to the platform (+155% y/y).
🟢 Covered 17 new stocks.
🟢 Become a Substack Bestseller.
🟢 Been published in @Reuters, @TheAtlantic, and @hntrbrkmedia.

And is currently being read by ~3,000 investors which includes >350 investment funds across 93 countries.

The service alone has ramped up to ~$30k ARR in just 7 months as a single manager setup. I've had the pleasure to meet so many new investors, senior management and experts just from my writing.

The reason I share this is because you might not be tempted to take the plunge and naysayers in your life might not believe you can do it.

I'm here to tell you that you can and that you should do it!

Take the first steps and do what makes you happy. You never know where something is going to go or who you're going to meet until you try. It's a slow burn but a very rewarding one once the sweat equity starts showing results.

To give you an example of the success of our ideas, had you just invested $1,000 each time we publicly released a report, you’d have a return in excess of $13,700. Roughly 38.0x the current annual rate.

I mention this because on January 1, 2025, we're raising the price to $75/mo ($900 annually) or $450/yr.

If you'd like to lock in the current rate forever, then take advantage while you can.

https://t.co/fYWgvRk1xf

Appreciate all of you have supported my work in 2024 and to those who have given advice along the way.

Happy holidays everyone! 2025 expected to be another banger of a year!

Cheers 🥂

[Cedar Grove Capital Management @cedargrovecm]

$RCAT Update #2

Looks like they won the contract (link below)! However, I'm completely stunned that the stock is anemic post the news. Literally it only went down.

Perhaps people are waiting for the town hall? That it's at 5 years for right now and subject to change? Possible equity dilution? Who knows but I'm just as stunned as the next person.

Another note to add was that there were others who were saying the contract was worth $700 - $800M over 10 years.

If you read my research, I explained why that was incorrect and laid out the math. I made all the RCAT posts free (paywall removed) so you can see exactly how I arrived at the value and proposed price target.

As you'll notice the thoroughness and diligence of analyzing this trade, I hope you consider signing up to get more of them.

https://t.co/7xMy8mufIG

1st Article
https://t.co/5bhME2z0f5

2nd Article
https://t.co/mXkVE488hg

3rd Article
https://t.co/wLC7AQAPSC

[Weekly Snacks @weeklysnacks]

Weekly Snacks #40 is out now!

This week we published on
- Build-a-Bear $BBW
- Green Brick Partners $GRBK
- PetMed Express $PETS
- Venture Capital Trinity
- What happens post-Trump victory

Click through, have a read, and be sure to subscribe! It's free!

https://t.co/MFE4abzEva

[Weekly Snacks @weeklysnacks]

Weekly Snacks #39 is out now!

This week we published on

- L'Oreal OR . PA
- Tesla $TLSA
- Adult cannabis use in FL
- Seriousness disappearing from society
- Datacenters and Nuclear Power

Click through, have a read, and be sure to subscribe! It's free!

https://t.co/NShX1CzMWW

[Weekly Snacks @weeklysnacks]

Bringing back our Weekly Snacks, we're now out with letter #38.

This week we have a few good investment pitches in the fitness, toys, and credit space.

- Peloton $PTON
- Games Workshop $GAW
- Credit Bureau Asia $TCU

Additional research + podcasts available via link in bio

[Paul Cerro @paulcerro]

With so much positive feedback and new followers this week regarding my $HIMS coverage, I want to try one last time for people to get access and read the report so you are

a) informed by what's actually going on
b) finally understand my position so you're not guessing into the wind and being clearly wrong
c) will hopefully make you feel better about the unknowns because of what's beyond the marketing materials everyone keeps referencing

I appreciate all the supporters thus far who have highlighted how in-depth this research piece was. The below is the first page of the 12-page report which was previously blurred for the most part.

The next tweet has the discount 🔗 to take advantage. Consequently, the service doesn't allow me to isolate to just report so you can access to the other 3 + every single paywalled report. Lucky you.

Beyond this, I'm not doing anything else. I've more than proven my knowledge and understanding of this company and the situation so if you still choose to make assumptions I'm not going to bother.

🚨 Link only works until the end of the weekend as an FYI.

Tagging accounts that have been covering the name extensively for reach and coverage. Appreciate @herbgreenberg once again for coming out and sharing his true thoughts on my work. Cheers 🍻

CC:
@riyadosofian
@mvcinvesting
@chitchatstocks
@CCM_Ryan
@CCM_Brett
@MMMTwealth
@RahulSetty_
@FundasyInvestor
@JasonJh1319

[Paul Cerro @paulcerro]

Appreciate the comment from @herbgreenberg this morning on $HIMS!

As someone who's read my research, he can attest to the quality. Getting the right information, even when it doesn't fit your narrative/position is still critical to investing.

Link to the quoted research below

[Weekly Snacks @weeklysnacks]

Weekly Snacks #37 came out over the weekend.

Equity pitches discussed:
- Hims $HIMS
- Wise $WISE
- Gogo $GOGO
- Zebra Technologies $ZBRA

*If you're tagged, you're mentioned*

Additional research and tweets via link

🔗: https://t.co/uLDVDKipft

[Cedar Grove Capital Management @cedargrovecm]

Hims $HIMS is reporting earnings tomorrow after the bell and the last few days have sent the stock down 18% on various news and market events.

A name I know well, I decided to share my updated thoughts and model assumptions prior to ER.

In the below post, I go over
- How recent news of $LLY changes the prospects for HIMS compounding

- How I’m viewing WW International’s $WW clinical business when analyzing headwinds regarding HIMS.

- Updated HIMS valuation with an isolated GLP-1 sales model.

Click the link below to access the research.

🔗: https://t.co/yJT7NdxnhB

[Weekly Snacks @weeklysnacks]

Weekly Snacks #36 came out over the weekend.

Equity pitches discussed:
- Loungers $LGRS
- Auto Partner $APR
- Innovative Solutions $ISSC
- Hims $HIMS

*If you're tagged, you're mentioned*

Additional research and tweets via link

🔗:https://t.co/UGIbTNfULy

[Paul Cerro @paulcerro]

Sahm Rule just got triggered based on July unemployment 🚨

.53

Sahm Rule hasn't ever been wrong in predicting a recession (yet)

[Weekly Snacks @weeklysnacks]

Weekly Snacks #35 came out over the weekend.

Equity pitches discussed:
- Watches of Switzerland $WOSG
- K2A AB $K2A
- Dave $DAVE
- Red Cat Holdings $RCAT

*If you're tagged, you're mentioned*

Additional research and tweets via link

🔗: https://t.co/5uiw8gjEZs

[Cedar Grove Capital Management @cedargrovecm]

I am LONG Red Cat Holdings $RCAT as an event-driven trade.

$RCAT is a finalist for a nearly $500M U.S. Army drone contract that is currently multiples the size of its market cap.

I believe that should they win, the upside could be nearly +200% from today's prices. 1/

[Weekly Snacks @weeklysnacks]

@david_katunaric @cedargrovecm @tj_terwilliger @JulianKlymochko AI!

[Weekly Snacks @weeklysnacks]

Weekly Snacks #34 came out over the weekend.

Equity pitches discussed:
- Atkore International $ATKR
- Alico $ALCO
- Pinterest $PINS
- Mama's Creations $MAMA

*If you're tagged, you're mentioned*

Additional research and tweets via link

🔗: https://t.co/Uh8xnMayYU

[Weekly Snacks @weeklysnacks]

Weekly Snacks #33 came out over the weekend.

Equity pitches discussed:
- Red Cat Holdings $RCAT
- Willscot Home Mini $WSC
- Advance Auto Parts $AAP
- GEN Restaurant $GENK

Additional research, tweets, and podcasts via link

🔗: https://t.co/cr1KgcdELf

[Weekly Snacks @weeklysnacks]

Really excited to share with you all this week's pitches, research, and interesting tweets.

If you haven't already, sign up for free via the link below to get them in your inbox.

https://t.co/KW0FI9Qseb

[Weekly Snacks @weeklysnacks]

@weeklysnacks coming back this weekend! Stay tuned for new updates 🎉

[Paul Cerro @paulcerro]

Had a really good conversation last night on $HIMS. Appreciate having @AndySalamon join and share his thoughts as a co-founder of the company.

We went over:
- Common TAM misconceptions
- Future treatment through telehealth
- GLP-1 and weight loss misnomers
- What makes the brand and platform successful
- GLP-1 shortages and what that means for compounding

Much more as well but that's the gist. I've put out research via @cedargrovecm and will have some follow-ups to do based on last nights convo.

Have a listen if you're an investor or if you're thinking about investing. It might clear up a few things but in the end, the future looks incredibly bright for telehealth.

[Paul Cerro @paulcerro]

Everyone else: "You're completely sure of the math?"

Retail investors: "Look at him, that's my quant."

Everyone else: "Your what?"

Retail investors: "My quantitative. My math specialist. Look at him, you notice anything different about him? Look at his face. Look at his eyes, I'll give you a hint, his name is Roaring Kitty. He posts obscure memes and gifs with no real objective! HE CAN BARELY MAKE ANY COHERENT SENSE ON A LIVESTREAM! Yeah, I'm sure of the math."

$GME