Weissenstein & Partner

#Vermögensverwaltung
#wealthmanagement |
es twittert @chr_off | not investment advice

[Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 @C_Barraud]

🌐 Governments are borrowing at a record pace. Since the start of the year, sovereign issuers have already raised more than $500 billion in syndicated bond markets, more than during the first half of 2020, at the height of the Covid period. In my view, this is one of the most important macro signals right now.

⚠️ Governments now have to finance many more things at the same time like defense, infrastructure, energy transition, aging populations, support for households facing price shocks, and the refinancing of debt issued during the Covid period. The world is becoming more expensive to run but the major difference with the 2010s is that money is no longer free.

➡️ Even though investors are still buying sovereign debt, they are now demanding higher yields. Markets are not panicking but they are becoming more selective and are favoring shorter maturities, paying closer attention to fiscal credibility, and starting to distinguish between countries that use debt to finance productive investment and those that borrow mainly to cover current deficits.

This is not yet a debt crisis but it is clearly the end of fiscal complacency.

*Bloomberg link: https://t.co/jyDO1CJqWO

[Eric Nuttall @ericnuttall]

What if we are being misinformed in order to keep a lid on the oil price? What if talks are actually NOT going well and a peace treaty is NOT in fact imminent? What if there is no actual "cease fire" given ongoing kinetic action by both sides? What if Exxon and Chevron are right and working inventory levels are about to be breached in the coming weeks resulting in a price spike? What if the Strait does NOT in fact open, while everyone believes it will because "it has to"? What then???

[James Wynn 🔱 @JamesWynnReal]

I’m glad someone see’s it.

It’s the last and final pump in the NDQ until SHTF.

[Weissenstein & Partner @Weissenstein_P]

Meanwhile, S&P 500: 7'200, all time high

[Weissenstein & Partner @Weissenstein_P]

Maybe about time, that someone with a functioning brain in this cabinet is considering the 25th Amendment (Section 4) which allows the VP and a majority of the Cabinet to declare a US President "unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office." It’s the Constitution’s emergency brake for physical or mental incapacity. 🇺🇸⚖️ #25thAmendment #USPolitics

[Edward Luce @EdwardGLuce]

Trump administration is taking money Europeans and others have paid for arms for Ukraine and other purposes, not delivering said arms, and spending cash to help with self-created Gulf mess. This is not a trustworthy power. Credibility incinerated.

[Joumanna Nasr Bercetche @JoumannaTV]

Bloomberg Economics:
In a scenario where oil hits $170 (strait closed for 3 months) before returning back to $100 by year end, how big is the modelled shock?

US inflation +1.6%, US GDP -0.3%
UK inflation +1.9%, UK GDP -1.1%
EZ inflation +2.0%, EZ GDP -1.2%

[Weissenstein & Partner @Weissenstein_P]

People in need of liquidity sell any position with gains on it.

[Daniel Lacalle @dlacalle_IA]

A gold slump based on fears of central banks hiking rates and selling reserves shows a misunderstanding of how the monetary policy system works.

A gold slump based on fears of a recession is even less justified.

Any answer to today's risks will be more currency printing, not tighter policy.

via Bloomberg

[Weissenstein & Partner @Weissenstein_P]

maybe, Bessent is already doing what some have been warning about: manipulating the futures market.
always expect the most stupid actions from this motley crew in the White House

US intervention in oil futures would be ‘biblical disaster’, CME warns - https://t.co/riRb5aBs7N via @FT

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

Pressure your allies, question NATO, mock European leaders, slap tariffs on them, and ease sanctions on your adversaries.

Then start a war against the advice of top generals and without informing your partners.

And now you’re asking those same allies for help without even asking…

The irony.

[Weissenstein & Partner @Weissenstein_P]

An der Party auftauchen, wenn sie schon gelaufen ist.
Eine gute Idee?

[Oliver Groß @minenergybiz]

Imagine paying six times the price of natural gas and running a competitive industry in Europe

[Weissenstein & Partner @Weissenstein_P]

Das 🇬🇧 Pfund nur noch ein paar Zentimeter von der Parität gegen den #CHF entfernt.
-90% über 50 Jahre. Verrückt eigentlich. Und ja, es sagt auch etwas aus über die Art und Weise wie Britannien von Labour und den Tories "verwaltet" wird. Kein Wunder, dass die Briten not amused sind

[Weissenstein & Partner @Weissenstein_P]

Die Kommentare zu #Bitcoin (aktuell bei $64'900) am heutigen Tag sind schon interessant.
Man sollte es vielleicht nicht so kompliziert machen. Bitcoin ist einfach ein Risk Asset, das sich einfach liquidieren lässt. Auch am Wochenende.

[Weissenstein & Partner @Weissenstein_P]

Es scheint eilig zu sein.. Nicht dass sich das IPO Fenster für eine maximale Bewertung noch vorzeitig schliesst.
#SpaceX

[Samuel Rines @SamuelRines]

Oh boy … We are going to have a crisis of understanding Balance of Payments accounting for the next week or so.

[Weissenstein & Partner @Weissenstein_P]

Global markets outperforming Trump USA

[Weissenstein & Partner @Weissenstein_P]

Die Schweizer Wirtschaft hat mehrere Probleme. Es sind nicht nur die Konjunkturschwäche in Europa oder Strafzölle grosser Handelspartner.
Eine Stärke des Landes - der Franken - wird zunehmend zur Falle für die Industrie mit unabsehbaren langfristigen Folgen für den Werkplatz.

Die Frage ist nicht ob, sondern wann und wie die #SNB reagieren muss.

Wertverluste ggü. #CHF über 12 Monate:
USD 15% / JPY 15% / GBP 6% / EUR 3% etc.

[Alberto Bernal @AlbertoBernalLe]

Take a look at this relationship 👇 If @truflation is even remotely close to accurately describing what consumer prices are doing at this time, then the official US headline CPI print SHOULD collapse from 2.7% y/y to +/- 1.5% y/y in the next 3-4 months. And since employment growth is now stagnant, at best, the @federalreserve will be forced to cut rates much more than the market currently expects. In other words, my view is that the analyst consensus is WRONG, and that the Fed will be forced to deliver at least 75-100bps in 2026. Needless to say, this development carries huge market implications #USDWeakness #Markets #FinanceAndEconomics

[Weissenstein & Partner @Weissenstein_P]

🤔 ok, jedem seine Meinung

Warum Gold und Silber keine solide Geldanlage sind - DER SPIEGEL https://t.co/QMawDAqYk0