玮叶秋风

$NBIS

[玮叶秋风 @weiyeqiufeng]

@HcKfad 早点离开原生家庭

[amit @amitisinvesting]

The question is not if we will have a bear market, the question is if this administration can afford to let us have a bear market.

- AI Capex is 50% of GDP. If it stops or slows down, GDP growth goes down the drain. No GDP growth = recession. Mainstreet gets hit the worst as the labor market will collapse.

- 90% of consumer spending is done by the top 10%. They are levered against their assets that allow them to keep spending because their stocks keep going up. Stocks go down? Goodbye to consumer spending as we enter an actual recession given normal consumers already are borrowing from credit cards to pay for everything.

- Social security will be wrecked over the coming 10 years. Why do you think we got the Trump Accounts? Because the administration believes in financial literacy? No, they need a replacement and having kids compound in the stock market to basically build their retirement account from birth could replace social security. That means stocks have to go up for those accounts to be worth anything and actually compound. Most 401Ks in this country are basically seen as retirement accounts. If the admin lets the market crash, people will not be able to afford retirement when social security benefits get cut into 2032.

- We are $40T in debt. Bond yields continue to go higher which means the interest expense on our debt is approaching a significant part of our overall spending. The literal only way to solve this is cut spending or grow. Repubs or Dems will not cut spending…so growth is the only answer. If the market crashes, the chances of sustained growth in the greatest tech buildout we have ever seen will be impossible and ultimately make our debt situation even worse. We have to grow.

Not saying we can’t get into some horrible bear market, but given how levered the entire economy is to AI, which is basically the entire stock market, I do think this admin will try very hard to make sure we don’t have some horrible, ugly crash. If they let it happen, everything goes down the drain and the difference between now and dotcom is that demand for GPUs is very real (no oversupply) and the difference between now and 2008 is that the potential credit issue is not in housing and banks, it’s within GPUs and there is so much demand that the hyperscalers + Nvidia + the admin could come in to make sure things don’t get as bad as then.

Maybe we could have some epic crash, but this administration really cannot afford to let that happen.

[玮叶秋风 @weiyeqiufeng]

@SFbearface 发钱吗？我也可以爱中国，我也可以爱台湾

[玮叶秋风 @weiyeqiufeng]

@ananluluanan 骗人！上美颜的意义在哪？

[玮叶秋风 @weiyeqiufeng]

@joely7758521 银行质押就好了，还不用缴税

[Crypto Doggy 叫我狗总 @CryptoDoggyCN]

狗总一次性说清资金出国/回国真实额度，远超出每年5万美金！

1. 资金出国

1.1 银行换汇，便利化换汇额度5万美元（35万元），银行换完电汇出国，或汇丰之类的同名互转；

1.2 熊猫速汇（优惠链接https://t.co/OigFdCxxhc），速度相比电汇更快，支付宝微信合作汇款商，每年多出5万美元额度；

1.3 已经每人每年10万美元，也就是70万人民币左右了，如果还是不够，在币安、OKX等交易所C2C交易，人民币购买USDT（冻卡几率极小），USDT提现到Kraken等海外合规交易所（支持公户提现外币），USDT换成USD等外币电汇到海外银行卡（狗总置顶教程里更详细），这样额度就到无限大了；

1.4 肉身带人民币现金去香港，每人每天2万元限额（外币还有额外限额，撇开不谈），各显神通；

2. 资金回国

2.1 银行结汇，将外币从海外银行电汇回你国内银行的外币账户，需要结汇的时候就结，占用每年5万美元便利化购结汇额度；

2.2 熊猫速汇、WISE、We Remit、考拉速汇等几十个平台都可以，每个平台都有自己的额度，但非共享相对独立，所以加起来总额度就足够大了（狗总注：资金回国的监管没有出国那么严，所以做的公司非常多，出国的做得大的好像只有熊猫）。通过这些平台，转回内地银行卡变人民币，被要求出示资金证明的概率极小。

2.2.1 通过上面这些平台，走微信“微汇款”，转回微信零钱，每年额度30万元，转回微信绑定银行卡，每年额度50万元；

2.2.2 通过上面这些平台，走支付宝“闪速收款”，选工资+赡家生活费的话最方便，每年额度60万元，选其他的话额度无上限但要提供证明；

2.3 用USDT反向回国出金人民币不推荐，因为冻卡几率升高；

2.4 汇丰、渣打等港卡内地ATM取现（办卡可以自己diy或找中介@gk123leo），每天2万限额，部分可后台调至8万，无上限，但需注意频率和养卡以避免销卡，或港卡刷POS机直接消费，部分卡可以绑定微信、支付宝、云闪付消费；

2.5 香港换成人民币肉身带回国，每人每天2万元限额（外币不谈），各显神通；

狗总这里并没说地下钱庄，找人对敲，货代，u卡，奢侈品转移，走公司路径等高风险/性价比低/复杂的通道，大家有什么好的新的办��也可以补���。 老规矩，先关注再一键三连，点赞破300更新下一弹，预告一下，你会更需要！