一根葱

[Cointelegraph @Cointelegraph]

🇺🇸 NEW: BlackRock has urged the OCC to drop its proposed 20% cap on tokenized reserve assets and expand eligible assets in its draft rules for the GENIUS Act.

[一根葱 @weizf1]

不让任何东西荒废的谬误，会让你的投资损失！

[一根葱 @weizf1]

看来美国打伊朗已经是箭在弦上了。

[一根葱 @weizf1]

孙割也在唱空，如按照孙割的剧本，比特币到3万。

[Sizhe思哲 @Sizhe_bitcat]

孙割的话多少得听一点吧

按照孙割的说法

在美联储新主席
沃什上任以后
大概率还会有暴击

娘嘞……

60000的大饼总不能再给我腰斩一次吧

[一根葱 @weizf1]

央行联合八部委发布禁令：
虚拟货币不具备法定货币地位，相关业务均为非法金融活动一律禁止，未经同意不得发行挂钩人民币的稳定币；RWA代币化活动除特定合规情形外均禁止，境外主体不得向境内非法提供两类相关服务。
https://t.co/8JMKZox0EH

[Star_OKX @star_okx]

No complexity. No accident.
10/10 was caused by irresponsible marketing campaigns by certain companies.

On October 10, tens of billions of dollars were liquidated. As CEO of OKX, we observed clearly that the crypto market’s microstructure fundamentally changed after that day.

Many industry participants believe the damage was more severe than the FTX collapse. Since then, there has been extensive discussion about why it happened and how to prevent a recurrence. The root causes are not difficult to identify.

⸻

What actually happened
1.Binance launched a temporary user-acquisition campaign offering 12% APY on USDe, while allowing USDe to be used as collateral with the same treatment as USDT and USDC, and without effective limits.
2.USDe is a tokenized hedge fund product.
Ethena raises capital via a so-called “stablecoin,” deploys it into index arbitrage and algorithmic trading strategies, and tokenizes the resulting fund. The token can then be deposited on exchanges to earn yield.
3.USDe is fundamentally different from products such as
BlackRock BUIDL and Franklin Templeton BENJI, which are tokenized money market funds with low-risk profiles.
USDe, by contrast, embeds hedge-fund-level risk. This difference is structural, not cosmetic.
4.Binance users were encouraged to convert USDT and USDC into USDe to earn attractive yields, without sufficient emphasis on the underlying risks. From a user’s perspective, trading with USDe appeared no different from trading with traditional stablecoins—while the actual risk profile was materially higher.
5.Risk escalated further as users:
•converted USDT/USDC into USDe,
•used USDe as collateral to borrow USDT,
•converted the borrowed USDT back into USDe,
•and repeated the cycle.
This leverage loop produced artificial APYs of 24%, 36%, and even 70%+, widely perceived as “low risk” simply because they were offered by a major platform. Systemic risk accumulated rapidly across the global crypto market.
https://t.co/IK2gW4xUOP that point, even a small market shock was sufficient to trigger a collapse.
When volatility hit, USDe depegged quickly. Cascading liquidations followed, and weaknesses in risk management around assets such as WETH and BNSOL further amplified the crash. Some tokens briefly traded near zero.
The damage to global users and companies—including OKX customers—was severe, and recovery will take time.

⸻

Why this matters

I am discussing the root cause, not assigning blame or launching an attack on Binance. Speaking openly about systemic risks is sometimes uncomfortable, but it is necessary if the industry is to mature responsibly.

I expect there may be significant misinformation and coordinated FUD directed at OKX in the near future. Even so, speaking honestly about systemic risk is the right thing to do—and we will continue to do so.

As the largest global platform, Binance has outsized influence—and corresponding responsibility—as an industry leader. Long-term trust in crypto cannot be built on short-term yield games, excessive leverage, or marketing practices that obscure risk.

The industry needs leaders who prioritize market stability, transparency, and responsible innovation—not a winner-take-all mentality where criticism is treated as hostility.

Crypto is still early.
What we choose to normalize today will determine whether this industry earns lasting trust—or repeats the same mistakes again.

[一根葱 @weizf1]

沃什的经济政策观点主要集中在货币政策改革、供给侧促增长以及对美联储角色的反思上。他长期被视为通胀鹰派，强调控制通胀、反对过度宽松货币政策（如量化宽松的副作用），但近年来在特朗普影响下，转向支持更快的降息，并主张通过缩减美联储资产负债表来为降低利率创造空间，实现“降息与缩表并行。

[一根葱 @weizf1]

特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什担任美联储理事会主席

[The White House @WhiteHouse]

President Donald J. Trump announces the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be the CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE.

[一根葱 @weizf1]

这一轮熊市，
起源于川普关税战，
关税大棒不但打对手，
还打盟友，
各种冷战热战，
会不会发生黑天鹅事件，
将加密市场打入冰点，
拭目以待吧，
上轮熊市是暴雷熊，
各种暴雷，
这一轮熊市是关税熊，
各种关税。

[一根葱 @weizf1]

比特币已经跌成这熊样了，还有所谓的大周期么？还是比特币的四年一周期从来都不能被打破！

[一根葱 @weizf1]

黄金这是要开始收割了么？

[一根葱 @weizf1]

@luckybb88 这么性感就算了，还那么有钱

[一根葱 @weizf1]

@ethereum @grok 都有哪些主要的资产在以太坊上

[一根葱 @weizf1]

@_FORAB @grok 预测一下黄金能涨到多少？

[Bidao @BidaoOfficial]

别被 CZ 的“安全感”麻醉了，他在掩盖真正的问题

你听完 CZ 的达沃斯讲话，是不是觉得心里很踏实？
“稳了，行业不会死。”
“大了，规模超纽交所。”
“强了，AI 的原生货币。”

醒醒。这种廉价的“安全感”正是阻碍你看到下一个 100 倍机会的眼罩。

CZ 所描述的，是一个已经完成资本积累的巨头眼中的“静态世界”。他告诉你现状很美好，但他没有告诉你，按照他的逻辑走下去，加密行业将死于平庸。

这篇文章将花粉碎你对权威的盲从。

一、生存不是勋章，那是“平庸的遮羞布”
CZ 说：“跑了十五六年没死，说明不是泡沫。”
这是一个典型的逻辑陷阱。

蟑螂也跑了三亿年没死，这并不代表它是高等生物。
存活仅仅是底线，而不是荣耀。

互联网在诞生的第 15 年（约 1995-2000 年），已经彻底改变了信息的传输方式，Google 和 Amazon 正在重写商业规则。而且改变了全世界全人类的方方面面，哪怕是不能使用谷歌和亚马逊的中国，也产生了类似的百度和阿里巴巴等企业。

而加密行业在第 15 年，最拿得出手的应用依然是“炒作”。

CZ 的观点：我们活着，所以我们合法。

我认为更准确观点：如果没有产生“非投机性”的外部正外部性，活得越久，越像一个巨大的吸血寄生虫。

不要因为行业没死就沾沾自喜。真正的危机不在于“消失”，而在于“僵尸化”——成为一个永远存在、但永远只在小圈子里自嗨的数字赌场。

二、交易量的谎言：纽交所造血，币安吸血

CZ 自豪地对比：“币安交易规模超过了纽交所。”

这是一种极其狡猾的偷换概念。

纽交所（NYSE）的交易量背后，是苹果生产手机、特斯拉生产汽车、英伟达生产算力。那里的金融流动是为实体生产服务的。

而币安的交易量背后是什么？是 7 x 24 小时的高频量化、是合约互博、是 MEME 狂欢后的鸡毛。是无休止的VC币、山寨币，上线就是巅峰市值，一直吸血市场。

实体金融：资金是血液，输送给肌肉（企业）去创造价值。
加密金融：资金是筹码，在赌徒之间零和博弈。

把“赌场的流水”和“工厂的产值”做对比，是智力上的不诚实。

如果我们只盯着交易量，我们就永远是个韭菜。真正的机会在于寻找那些能让 Crypto 从“零和博弈”转向“正和游戏”的项目——虽然它们现在可能还很微小。

三、商业模式的诅咒：既得利益者的盲区
CZ 说：“只有交易所和稳定币是被验证成功的。”

这就好比一个卖铲子的人告诉你：“淘金是假的，只有卖铲子才是真生意。”

当然，站在 CZ 的立场，他必须这么说。因为交易所（CEX）和稳定币（USDT/USDC）是目前最大的寻租者。他们躺在行业的路口收过路费。

但这恰恰是加密精神的反面。

Satoshi Nakamoto 发明比特币，是为了去除中间商。而现在，最大的成功案例却是建立了更大的中间商（Binance）。

批判性视角：如果只有交易所赚钱，这个行业就失败了。

更深入的观点：未来的真正爆发，一定是“协议层的价值捕获”超过“应用层的过路费”——也就是cz和何一最近经常感到的危机感。

当所有链上产品的真实收入超越 Coinbase和binance等交易所总和 时，才是行业成年的时刻。

不要迷信 CZ 的“成功经验”，那是旧时代的残党。

四、AI 的真相：不是“钱包”，是“产权”
CZ 认为加密货币是 AI 的原生货币。这一点我同意，但他的格局小了。

他把 Crypto 看作是 AI 的支付宝。
但实际上，Crypto 应该是 AI 的宪法。
在 AI 生成内容泛滥的未来，支付只是最浅层的需求。真正的痛点是：

数据确权：谁喂给了 AI 数据？（Crypto 解决所有权）
算力去中心化：谁控制了 AI 的开关？（DePIN 解决垄断）
真相验证：这个视频是真人还是 AI？（密码学签名解决信任）

Crypto 对 AI 的意义，绝不仅仅是“转账快一点”。 它是硅基生命体在数字世界中确立“私有财产”和“身份主权”的唯一基石。

如果你只把眼光盯着“AI 支付”，就会错过整个“AI 基础设施”的万亿赛道。当然，因为只有支付才能牢牢被币安这种交易所把握。别的基础设施就意味着任何颠覆性的创新都会动摇币安的行业地位。

总结
CZ 是一个伟大的企业家，但他首先是一个交易所老板。
他的讲话充满了“防御性”的智慧：他在维护币安的合理性，他在安抚监管，他在拥抱传统。

但我们作为一个独立的投资者，有着伟大梦想的开发者，不能只有防御。还需要进攻。

拒绝生存红利：寻找那些有真实用例的项目，而不是活得久的老古董。
看透流动性本质：区分“赌博流水”和“生产性资本”。
跳过中间商：关注那些试图杀死交易所的去中心化协议。
升维思考 AI：从“支付工具”升级到“数字产权”。

不要听信大佬为你构建的温室。推倒围墙，外面才是旷野。

#Crypto #Binance #DeepDive #Contrarian #AI

[一根葱 @weizf1]

大家已经厌倦了中心化社交平台，去中心化社交是大势所趋，韦神提出倡议，从2026年开始多使用去中心化社交平台。

[vitalik.eth @VitalikButerin]

In 2026, I plan to be fully back to decentralized social.

If we want a better society, we need better mass communication tools. We need mass communication tools that surface the best information and arguments and help people find points of agreement. We need mass communication tools that serve the user's long-term interest, not maximize short-term engagement. There is no simple trick that solves these problems. But there is one important place to start: more competition. Decentralization is the way to enable that: a shared data layer, with anyone being able to build their own client on top.

In fact, since the start of the year I've been back to decentralized social already. Every post I've made this year, or read this year, I made or read with https://t.co/BJ3J4TvNNu, a multi-client that covers reading and posting to X, Lens, Farcaster and Bluesky (though bluesky has a 300 char limit, so they don't get to see my beautiful long rants).

But crypto social projects has often gone the wrong way. Too often, we in crypto think that if you insert a speculative coin into something, that counts as "innovating", and moves the world forward. Mixing money and social is not inherently wrong: Substack shows that it's possible to create an economy that supports very high-quality content. But Substack is about _subscribing to creators_, not _creating price bubbles around them_. Over the past decade, we have seen many many attempts at incentivizing creators by creating price bubbles around them, and all fail by (i) rewarding not content quality, but pre-existing social capital, and (ii) the tokens all going to zero after one or two years anyway.

Too many people make galaxy-brained arguments that creating new markets and new assets is automatically good because it "elicits information", when the rest of their product development actions clearly betray that they're not actually interested in maximizing people's ability to benefit from that information. That is not Hayekian info-utopia, that is corposlop.

Hence, decentralized social should be run by people who deeply believe in the "social" part, and are motivated first and foremost by solving the problems of social.

The Aave team has done a great job stewarding Lens up to this point. I'm excited about what will happen to Lens over the next year, because I think the new team coming in are people who actually are interested in the "social": even back when the decentralized social space barely existed, they were trying to figure out how to do encrypted tweets.

I plan to post more there this year.

I encourage everyone to spend more time in Lens, Farcaster and the broader decentralized social world this year. We need to move beyond everyone constantly tweeting inside a single global info warzone, and into a reopened frontier, where new and better forms of interaction become possible.

[一根葱 @weizf1]

建仓技巧和方法：
根据自己的交易原则来调配仓位、先明确投入额度，在考虑最大亏损承受额度，按照小单试场，顺势加仓、势明满仓的原则，设置止损点并根据股价的上涨而抬高止损点位，止损点可以是今股价的-5%，以可以是-10%，根据股性和技术形态来设置。

[一根葱 @weizf1]

如何判断庄家已建仓完成：
1、股价在低位筑一个平台，然后在缓缓盘出底部
2、放很小的量就能拉出一个长阳
3、k线我行我素不理会大盘涨跌，走独立行情
4、k线走势起伏不定，而分时图剧烈震荡，成交量极度萎缩
5、遇利空打击股价不跌反涨
#庄家

[一根葱 @weizf1]

@zaobaosg 川普把欧洲拿捏的死死的

[一根葱 @weizf1]

@heyibinance 以和为贵