竹中治堅/ Haru Takenaka 🇺🇦

@westlinen

政策研究大学院大学教授 #日本政治(#首相指導力)比較政治(民主化)を研究。 #政治などにツイート。『首相支配』『参議院とは何か』『コロナ危機の政治』（共に中央公論新社）Failed Democratization in Prewar Japan(Stanford Univ. Press)等。

Roppongi, Tokyo

Joined February 2010

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9.7K Followers

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竹中治堅/ Haru Takenaka 🇺🇦 @westlinen

5 months ago

首相のホクホク発言。問題なのは為替変動ではなく、財政状況悪化が通貨としての円の信用を毀損、長期的に円安が進むと懸念されていることである。財政拡張を進める首相が円安容認するので財政状況と通貨の信用の関係を理解しているのかという懸念が高まる。これを論じました。 https://t.co/S3qTZCY2fU

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westlinen retweeted

about 20 hours ago

「円は39年半ぶり安値視野」という表現はやめよう。物価水準も考慮した実質実効為替レートで比較すれば、円の実力は既にニクソンショック前の1970年（１ドル360円）よりも実質的には弱い。そして異次元金融緩和からの正常化への動きが極めて緩慢、高市政権が積極財政に舵を切りそう、人口減が日本経済の潜在成長力を大きく低下させているのに外国人労働者の受け入れには慎重、消費意欲があまり高くない高齢者に金融資産が集まりやすい社会制度となっているーーなどの複合効果で今後も一段と円安になりそう。

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westlinen retweeted

@fujimaki_takesi

1 day ago

ちなみに、日本は1990年代に比べて、GDPは2倍にしかなっていないのにマネタリーベースは10倍にもなっています。これに信用創造で市中に流れでているお金は激増しています。世界でこれほど経済規模の拡大の程度に対し、お金が膨れ上がっている国はありません。だからこそ、円の価値の毀損(=円安)が今起こっているのです。まだまだとんでもない減価が起こります。為替介入など小技で止められるわけがありません。財政規律の無視とそれによって起こる財政破綻の危機先送り策である財政ファイナンスのツケはかくも大きいのです。

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竹中治堅/ Haru Takenaka 🇺🇦 @westlinen

1 day ago

森保ジャパン、W杯史上最多4得点で今大会初勝利！上田2G＆鎌田2試合連続弾、伊東W杯初Gで2位浮上【北中米大会】(TBS NEWS DIG Powered by JNN) #Yahooニュース https://t.co/CgWrsUlLRw

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Who to follow

Tetsuo Kotani/小谷哲男

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安全保障研究、アメリカ研究、インド太平洋地域研究、猫、酒

Yuichi Hosoya　細谷雄一

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Researching, commenting, and writing on international politics. International history and Japanese foreign policy. Repost doesn’t mean endorsement.

千々和泰明 / CHIJIWA Yasuaki

@chijiwa_yasuaki

最新刊『誰が日本を降伏させたか』（PHP新書）と『世界の力関係がわかる本』（ちくまプリマー新書）が発売中です。『安全保障と防衛力の戦後史 1971〜2010』（千倉書房）で日本防衛学会猪木正道賞正賞。『戦争はいかに終結したか』（中公新書）で石橋湛山賞。個人の研究活動をご紹介。原則リプしていません��

竹中治堅/ Haru Takenaka 🇺🇦 @westlinen

3 days ago

林芳正総務相、武田良太氏と会食　党内情勢巡り意見交換か - 日本経済新聞 https://t.co/a8U0rt1Axx

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竹中治堅/ Haru Takenaka 🇺🇦 @westlinen

3 days ago

米・イラン、19日に対面協議　トランプ氏「戦闘続けば経済大惨事」 - 日本経済新聞 https://t.co/TQh5AJRvka

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westlinen retweeted

@DD_Geopolitics

4 days ago

🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING!!!! The White House has released the full text of 14-point MoU The points summarised are as follows: 1. The U.S. and Iran, and their allies in the current war, by signing this MoU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. 2. The U.S. and Iran will respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity and refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs. 3. The U.S. and Iran commit to achieving a final deal in a maximum of 60 days, extendable with mutual consent. 4. The U.S. will immediately begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic will be in proportion to the number of pre-war traffic being restored by Iran. The U.S. further undertakes to remove its military forces from the proximity of Iran within 30 days after the final deal. 5. Iran will make arrangements for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles and demining, within 30 days. Iran will conduct a dialogue with Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz. 6. The U.S. undertakes with its regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of Iran, as part of the final deal after 60 days. All required licenses, waivers, and permissions will be granted. 7. The U.S. will terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the UNSC resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral US sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed-upon schedule as part of the final deal. 8. Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The U.S. and Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpile enriched materials, pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven, with at a minimum a downblending on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to Iran's nuclear needs. 9. Pending the final deal, the U.S. and Iran agree to maintain the status quo. Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the U.S. will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region. 10. The U.S. undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MoU, waivers will be issued for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc. 11. The U.S. undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MoU. The U.S. and Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations. 12. A monitoring mechanism will be established to supervise the implementation of this MoU and the subsequent deal. 13. After signing this MoU and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11, and the continuing implementation of these measures, the U.S. and Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal. 14. The final deal will be endorsed by a UNSC Resolution.

DD_Geopolitics's tweet photo. 🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING!!!! The White House has released the full text of 14-point MoU

The points summarised are as follows:

1. The U.S. and Iran, and their allies in the current war, by signing this MoU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.

2. The U.S. and Iran will respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity and refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs.

3. The U.S. and Iran commit to achieving a final deal in a maximum of 60 days, extendable with mutual consent.

4. The U.S. will immediately begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic will be in proportion to the number of pre-war traffic being restored by Iran. The U.S. further undertakes to remove its military forces from the proximity of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.

5. Iran will make arrangements for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles and demining, within 30 days. Iran will conduct a dialogue with Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.

6. The U.S. undertakes with its regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of Iran, as part of the final deal after 60 days. All required licenses, waivers, and permissions will be granted.

7. The U.S. will terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the UNSC resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral US sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed-upon schedule as part of the final deal.

8. Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The U.S. and Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpile enriched materials, pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven, with at a minimum a downblending on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to Iran's nuclear needs.

9. Pending the final deal, the U.S. and Iran agree to maintain the status quo. Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the U.S. will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region.

10. The U.S. undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MoU, waivers will be issued for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.

11. The U.S. undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MoU. The U.S. and Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations.

12. A monitoring mechanism will be established to supervise the implementation of this MoU and the subsequent deal.

13. After signing this MoU and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11, and the continuing implementation of these measures, the U.S. and Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal.

14. The final deal will be endorsed by a UNSC Resolution.

DD_Geopolitics's tweet photo. 🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING!!!! The White House has released the full text of 14-point MoU

The points summarised are as follows:

1. The U.S. and Iran, and their allies in the current war, by signing this MoU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.

2. The U.S. and Iran will respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity and refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs.

3. The U.S. and Iran commit to achieving a final deal in a maximum of 60 days, extendable with mutual consent.

4. The U.S. will immediately begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic will be in proportion to the number of pre-war traffic being restored by Iran. The U.S. further undertakes to remove its military forces from the proximity of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.

5. Iran will make arrangements for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles and demining, within 30 days. Iran will conduct a dialogue with Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.

6. The U.S. undertakes with its regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of Iran, as part of the final deal after 60 days. All required licenses, waivers, and permissions will be granted.

7. The U.S. will terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the UNSC resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral US sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed-upon schedule as part of the final deal.

8. Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The U.S. and Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpile enriched materials, pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven, with at a minimum a downblending on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to Iran's nuclear needs.

9. Pending the final deal, the U.S. and Iran agree to maintain the status quo. Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the U.S. will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region.

10. The U.S. undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MoU, waivers will be issued for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.

11. The U.S. undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MoU. The U.S. and Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations.

12. A monitoring mechanism will be established to supervise the implementation of this MoU and the subsequent deal.

13. After signing this MoU and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11, and the continuing implementation of these measures, the U.S. and Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal.

14. The final deal will be endorsed by a UNSC Resolution.

DD_Geopolitics's tweet photo. 🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING!!!! The White House has released the full text of 14-point MoU

The points summarised are as follows:

1. The U.S. and Iran, and their allies in the current war, by signing this MoU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.

2. The U.S. and Iran will respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity and refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs.

3. The U.S. and Iran commit to achieving a final deal in a maximum of 60 days, extendable with mutual consent.

4. The U.S. will immediately begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic will be in proportion to the number of pre-war traffic being restored by Iran. The U.S. further undertakes to remove its military forces from the proximity of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.

5. Iran will make arrangements for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles and demining, within 30 days. Iran will conduct a dialogue with Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.

6. The U.S. undertakes with its regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of Iran, as part of the final deal after 60 days. All required licenses, waivers, and permissions will be granted.

7. The U.S. will terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the UNSC resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral US sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed-upon schedule as part of the final deal.

8. Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The U.S. and Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpile enriched materials, pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven, with at a minimum a downblending on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to Iran's nuclear needs.

9. Pending the final deal, the U.S. and Iran agree to maintain the status quo. Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the U.S. will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region.

10. The U.S. undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MoU, waivers will be issued for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.

11. The U.S. undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MoU. The U.S. and Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations.

12. A monitoring mechanism will be established to supervise the implementation of this MoU and the subsequent deal.

13. After signing this MoU and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11, and the continuing implementation of these measures, the U.S. and Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal.

14. The final deal will be endorsed by a UNSC Resolution.

DD_Geopolitics's tweet photo. 🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING!!!! The White House has released the full text of 14-point MoU

The points summarised are as follows:

1. The U.S. and Iran, and their allies in the current war, by signing this MoU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.

2. The U.S. and Iran will respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity and refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs.

3. The U.S. and Iran commit to achieving a final deal in a maximum of 60 days, extendable with mutual consent.

4. The U.S. will immediately begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic will be in proportion to the number of pre-war traffic being restored by Iran. The U.S. further undertakes to remove its military forces from the proximity of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.

5. Iran will make arrangements for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles and demining, within 30 days. Iran will conduct a dialogue with Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.

6. The U.S. undertakes with its regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of Iran, as part of the final deal after 60 days. All required licenses, waivers, and permissions will be granted.

7. The U.S. will terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the UNSC resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral US sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed-upon schedule as part of the final deal.

8. Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The U.S. and Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpile enriched materials, pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven, with at a minimum a downblending on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to Iran's nuclear needs.

9. Pending the final deal, the U.S. and Iran agree to maintain the status quo. Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the U.S. will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region.

10. The U.S. undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MoU, waivers will be issued for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.

11. The U.S. undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MoU. The U.S. and Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations.

12. A monitoring mechanism will be established to supervise the implementation of this MoU and the subsequent deal.

13. After signing this MoU and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11, and the continuing implementation of these measures, the U.S. and Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal.

14. The final deal will be endorsed by a UNSC Resolution.

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westlinen retweeted

4 days ago

The moment President Trump signs the Iran deal at the Palace of Versailles. The agreement was finalized during a dinner hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron inside the historic palace. The signing marked a major diplomatic milestone after months of negotiations aimed at ending the conflict between the U.S. and Iran.

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竹中治堅/ Haru Takenaka 🇺🇦 @westlinen

4 days ago

イランの国営通信、米との覚書内容を公表(共同通信) #Yahooニュース https://t.co/3HCG2F5YYq

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竹中治堅/ Haru Takenaka 🇺🇦 @westlinen

4 days ago

米イラン首脳が覚書に電子署名　イラン外務省が発表　署名式は開催されず　ホルムズ海峡30日以内正常化へ(FNNプライムオンライン（フジテレビ系）) #Yahooニュース https://t.co/15oKrO4AGz

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竹中治堅/ Haru Takenaka 🇺🇦 @westlinen

5 days ago

長期金利がインフレを上回るリスクがあります。すると債務は発散するので、歓迎していないでしょう、

5 days ago

財務省はインフレ税を歓迎していると思う。実質政府債務を減らすという目的は確実に達成できるのだから。日銀の黒田総裁のときも「インフレ目標は財務省の陰謀だ」といわれたが、財務省はインフレを歓迎していた。

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竹中治堅/ Haru Takenaka 🇺🇦 @westlinen

5 days ago

超党派ではなく、自民案。参院選挙を考えて分配政策を進めたいということ。政治家の最大の行動動機は再選であることを博士課程時代に叩き込まれた。その教えの重要さを噛み締めている。【��報】食料品の消費税「実質ゼロ化」の議長案提示超党派の国民会議(TBS NEWS DIG ) https://t.co/wsNF2joBrk

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westlinen retweeted

5 days ago

琉球新報がこれを報じるとは驚いたが、もはや庇いようが無いのだろうね…

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竹中治堅/ Haru Takenaka 🇺🇦 @westlinen

5 days ago

イランは所詮、中ロ北朝鮮連合側の国。イランがウクライナ戦争でロシア支援していることに端的に現れている。

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竹中治堅/ Haru Takenaka 🇺🇦 @westlinen

5 days ago

ウクライナ戦争でロシアを絶賛支援しているイランに我々が金を払う必要があるのか全く理解できません！噂話であることを願います。

Kazuto Suzuki @KS_1013

5 days ago

まあ、おそらくネタというか噂レベルの話でしかないんだろうけど、イラン復興の為に3000億ドルをアメリカと同盟国が払うという話があるらしい。イラン核合意の際に凍結資産の解除をしたオバマを罵っていたトランプだが、そんなことは忘れているのだろう。 https://t.co/klW8cdg3eJ

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竹中治堅/ Haru Takenaka 🇺🇦 @westlinen

5 days ago

減税によるつなぎは不要。給付しかしないことになったので最初の2年は住民税非課税世帯への給付を「つなぎ」とすれば良い。消費税減税は撤回。

玉木雄一郎（国民民主党）

@tamakiyuichiro

5 days ago

【突然出てきた飲食料品1％＋給付案に驚き】本日の社会保障国民会議で、小野寺座長からこれまで全く議論していない「2年間限定の飲食料品消費税1％＋給付」案が突然出てきて驚いている。（添付資料）自民党も了承していない案とのこと。国民会議での議論の内容を無視して中間取りまとめをするなら、当初から申し上げている通り、政府・与党でさっさと法案を作成��て国会に提出し、審議すればいい。結論ありきのアリバイのような会議なら、これ以上国民会議を続ける意味はないと言わざるを得ない。国民民主党としては、仮に5兆円もの減税財源があるなら、消費税減税ではなく、現役世代に重点的に届く所得税・住民税の減税と社会保険料負担の軽減に回すべきと訴えてきた。それが選挙でも公約に掲げた「社会保険料還付付き税額控除（所得税・住民税）」である。現行制度を活用できるため実務上の手間もかからず、来年度から迅速に実施可能だ。税目が同じなので将来的な給付付き税額控除への接続も円滑にできるし、給付付き税額控除と同様の政策効果を発揮する。現役世代重視の国民民主党としては、消費税減税より所得税・住民税・社会保険料（税）の減税を優先する。そもそも、飲食料品消費税ゼロについては、国民会議にヒアリングで来ていただいた31の個人・団体からは懸念の声が多数示されたが（賛意を示したのは2人の経済学者のみ）、それらに対する解決策は全く示されていない。例えば、以下のような懸念への答えがない。実は、これらの指摘の多くは、私が本年2月の代表質問で高市総理に問うた「10の懸念」と重なっている。・飲食料品8％→1％で、本当に7％ポイント分下がるのか？・1年間で5兆円、2年間で10兆円の減税財源はどうするのか？・地方消費税の減収対策はどうするのか？・今後、防衛費の増や社会保障費の増が見込まれる中で、予算全体で赤字国債の発行を本当に抑制できるのか？・免税及び簡易課税の農家等の約4,000億円の負担増（仕入れ税額控除ができなくなること等から生じる負担）への対策はどうするのか？・外食離れ対策はどうするのか？・2年後に本当に��率を上げられるのか？・8％に戻せなかった時に、本則税率を12％増税するのではないか？・所得税・住民税の「税額控除」に円滑に接続できるのか？・より複雑な税制となり、「公平・中立・簡素」の税の3原則に反するのではないか？・なぜ1％分の財源を来年度後半からの「給付」に回すのか？辻褄合わせで、複雑で奇妙な制度が出来上がることは避けたいので、来週の国民会議で言うべきことはしっかり申し上げたい。給付付き税額控除への「つなぎ」は、消費税の減税より、所得税・住民税・社会保険料（税）の減税（還付）でやるべきだ。

tamakiyuichiro's tweet photo. 【突然出てきた飲食料品1％＋給付案に驚き】

本日の社会保障国民会議で、小野寺座長からこれまで全く議論していない「2年間限定の飲食料品消費税1％＋給付」案が突然出てきて驚いている。（添付資料）

自民党も了承していない案とのこと。

国民会議での議論の内容を無視して中間取りまとめをするなら、当初から申し上げている通り、政府・与党でさっさと法案を作成��て国会に提出し、審議すればいい。

結論ありきのアリバイのような会議なら、これ以上国民会議を続ける意味はないと言わざるを得ない。

国民民主党としては、仮に5兆円もの減税財源があるなら、消費税減税ではなく、現役世代に重点的に届く所得税・住民税の減税と社会保険料負担の軽減に回すべきと訴えてきた。

それが選挙でも公約に掲げた
「社会保険料還付付き税額控除（所得税・住民税）」である。

現行制度を活用できるため実務上の手間もかからず、来年度から迅速に実施可能だ。税目が同じなので将来的な給付付き税額控除への接続も円滑にできるし、給付付き税額控除と同様の政策効果を発揮する。

現役世代重視の国民民主党としては、消費税減税より所得税・住民税・社会保険料（税）の減税を優先する。

そもそも、飲食料品消費税ゼロについては、国民会議にヒアリングで来ていただいた31の個人・団体からは懸念の声が多数示されたが（賛意を示したのは2人の経済学者のみ）、それらに対する解決策は全く示されていない。

例えば、以下のような懸念への答えがない。
実は、これらの指摘の多くは、私が本年2月の代表質問で高市総理に問うた「10の懸念」と重なっている。

・飲食料品8％→1％で、本当に7％ポイント分下がるのか？
・1年間で5兆円、2年間で10兆円の減税財源はどうするのか？
・地方消費税の減収対策はどうするのか？
・今後、防衛費の増や社会保障費の増が見込まれる中で、予算全体で赤字国債の発行を本当に抑制できるのか？
・免税及び簡易課税の農家等の約4,000億円の負担増（仕入れ税額控除ができなくなること等から生じる負担）への対策はどうするのか？
・外食離れ対策はどうするのか？
・2年後に本当に��率を上げられるのか？
・8％に戻せなかった時に、本則税率を12％増税するのではないか？
・所得税・住民税の「税額控除」に円滑に接続できるのか？
・より複雑な税制となり、「公平・中立・簡素」の税の3原則に反するのではないか？
・なぜ1％分の財源を来年度後半からの「給付」に回すのか？

辻褄合わせで、複雑で奇妙な制度が出来上がることは避けたいので、来週の国民会議で言うべきことはしっかり申し上げたい。

給付付き税額控除への「つなぎ」は、消費税の減税より、所得税・住民税・社会保険料（税）の減税（還付）でやるべきだ。

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竹中治堅/ Haru Takenaka 🇺🇦 @westlinen

5 days ago

利上げしても実質金利はマイナス。金融抑圧によって家計から利息分を収奪するのはやめるべき。過去30年間どれだけ家計から企業セクターに金融抑圧によって富が移転したと思っているのか理解しているのだろうか。金融正常化の流れに過ぎない。

金子洋一・元参議院議員（神奈川県選出）

5 days ago

昨日出演したABEMAプライムのテーマは、「景気がいいって何だ?日銀利上げで物価高は？」でした。私からは「物価上昇を抑える効果が期待できない利上げによって、国内の景気を悪化させ、住宅ローン金利を引き上げ、賃金上昇を止めてしまう危険を冒すべきではない。利上げには反対。」と主張しました。一方で、「今の日本経済の状況は必ずしも好景気ではないが、それでも日銀が金利引き上げをしないと円安がどんどん進んでしまって大変になる。だから利上げはやむを得ない」と共演した白井さゆり慶応義塾大学教授は主張しておられました。円安には企業収益を上げるメリットがあり、消費者側のデメリットには減税をはじめとする財政政策で対応すべきだと考えます。ぜひご覧ください。https://t.co/ovyy7w3mOQ

Y_Kaneko's tweet photo. 昨日出演したABEMAプライムのテーマは、「景気がいいって何だ?日銀利上げで物価高は？」でした。私からは「物価上昇を抑える効果が期待できない利上げによって、国内の景気を悪化させ、住宅ローン金利を引き上げ、賃金上昇を止めてしまう危険を冒すべきではない。利上げには反対。」と主張しました。一方で、「今の日本経済の状況は必ずしも好景気ではないが、それでも日銀が金利引き上げをしないと円安がどんどん進んでしまって大変になる。だから利上げはやむを得ない」と共演した白井さゆり慶応義塾大学教授は主張しておられました。円安には企業収益を上げるメリットがあり、消費者側のデメリットには減税をはじめとする財政政策で対応すべきだと考えます。ぜひご覧ください。https://t.co/ovyy7w3mOQ

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竹中治堅/ Haru Takenaka 🇺🇦 @westlinen

5 days ago

日本の民泊は不動産業者が介入し、非同居型ができたことが地元との摩擦を生んだ最大の要因である。家族同居型オンリーにすべき。｜条例で民泊「実質禁止」容認へ https://t.co/USmVU3hys8

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竹中治堅/ Haru Takenaka 🇺🇦 @westlinen

6 days ago

それでも実質金利はマイナス。緩和状況に変わりはない。日銀・内田副総裁が記者会見　利上げで物価高抑制「政府の施策と整合的」 - 日本経済新聞 https://t.co/szvvKoEqjQ

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竹中治堅/ Haru Takenaka 🇺🇦 @westlinen

7 days ago

日本はオーマン側と交渉し、オマーン側の海峡を通って、イランの要求は無視できないものか。

Sulaiman Ahmed @ShaykhSulaiman

7 days ago

JUST IN: Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Ismael Baqaei on the Strait of Hormuz: “According to the MoU, Iran and Oman will be responsible for managing passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is not seeking to impose tolls. However, in return for navigation services, environmental protection, insurances and other maritime services, Iran will collect the necessary fees."

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竹中治堅/ Haru Takenaka 🇺🇦 @westlinen

7 days ago

イスラエルがどう出るか。｜イスラエル、トランプ氏に失望　「イランの核」排除できず(時事通信) #Yahooニュース https://t.co/lJEO7NBv16

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