🚮

very dumb, very ignorant
neither for nor

[🚮 @wetshard]

@KobeissiLetter Honestly it is pretty hard to compete against the GTA6 release

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Hedge funds are aggressively betting on lower oil prices:

Hedge fund net short bets on Brent crude oil are up to ~$18 billion, the highest in at least 10 years.

This figure has more than TRIPLED over the last 3 months.

This comes as hedge funds and institutional investors sold -$7.5 billion of Brent crude oil in the week ending June 16th, the largest weekly sale since April 2025.

New short positions accounted for ~80% of total sales during the week, meaning most of the sales came from fresh bearish bets rather than the unwinding of existing long positions.

This also marks the 7th consecutive weekly sale, totaling -$24.8 billion.

Is the short oil trade becoming too crowded?

[🐧 @Pentosh1]

kinda crazy how much people online seek out people who will only give them confirmation bias. down on something you bought? Just search for anything that will confirm your bias even though your original thesis was invalidated and now you have thesis drift. people love seeing what they want to hear, not what they need to hear. the person who tells them what they need to hear from a neutral view, is of course the bad person of the two

[Flood @ThinkingUSD]

Quick thought on “life changing money” since I’m getting a lot of DMs about it (no surprise given current PA).

If you’re sitting on uPnL that’s life changing you need to sell. Full stop.

I have regretted every single time when I did not realize life changing gains in the beginning of my career. The notional amount will change as you progress but the concept will not.

You will never get the optionality back of materializing that position and improving your life circumstances forever.

If you can change your life and the lives of those around you forever by clicking SELL on a screen I strongly advise that you do.

You can always rebuy, but you cannot go back in time and resell at that level where you reach escape velocity. There will always be another trade.

The people who make it to the top understand that being liquid and booking wins is how you SURVIVE. They didn’t get there by timing every top perfectly, they got here by pulling out cash than they put it.

There is always another trade, timing tops perfectly is a fantasy and having liquidity is king.

After you’ve hit escape velocity then and only then can you start playing the game for real and going for it all.

I’m not selling because this trade is a once in a cycle trade for me but that does not mean it will be for everyone.

Stay liquid and I love you all.

[🚮 @wetshard]

@Sandy1Texas @XtexasgirlX https://t.co/odPFDCuiRJ

[العميد إبراهيم ذو الفقاري @Ibrahim_alFiqar]

We will impose fees on services provided in the Strait of Hormuz.

[Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar]

Strait of Hormuz: Iran will likely try to exploit the agreement’s seemingly ambiguous language about the Strait of Hormuz to try to enforce its control over shipping through the strait. The MoU stipulates that Iran “will immediately take steps to ensure that the movement of merchant ships [through the strait] is resumed within 30 days to the pre-war volume,” according to Block, Saudi media, and several Western outlets.

Iran is expected to remove “technical obstacles” and naval mines from the strait during the 30-day period. The reported MOU text does not explicitly bar Iran from “managing” the strait, and Iran could therefore continue to insist on vessels using its illegal traffic separation scheme in Iranian territorial waters and paying “fees” to the IRGC Navy.

The MoU text also states that the United States and Iran will “respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity” and “refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.” The Iranian regime has repeatedly claimed that it and Oman control the Strait of Hormuz as territorial waters. Iran could also try to argue that its “management” of the strait is an Iranian internal affair. The MoU text also does not mention whether Iran can charge tolls, despite President Trump stating on June 14 that vessels can pass through the strait “toll-free.” Some versions of the agreement published in Western media on June 16 do mention that Iran will not charge tolls for 60 days and that Iran will work with Oman to “define future administration and maritime services” in the strait, however. IRGC-affiliated media stated on June 15 that Iran will pause charging “fees” for 60 days but intends to resume charging “fees” after that period. Iranian officials have consistently claimed that Iran is charging “service fees” as opposed to tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, and therefore that vessels are able to transit through the strait “toll-free.”

[🏴‍☠️ @calvinfroedge]

This is absolute insanity

Korean household loans increased by nearly 3x in a single month

Banks are clamping down starting now because all the money is going into the stock market

[DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics]

🇺🇸🇮🇱 Israelis on Telegram in response to the B-52 crash and death of 8 Americans:

‘They deserve it, I hate the United States no less than Iran.’

‘We just started, dear Americans. The blows have only just begun.’

[Championship Rounds @ChampRDS]

🚨 In a now-deleted post, Daniel Cormier exposed Eric Trump for asking him if any of the UFC White House fights were rigged:

"I'm probably going to get a lot of flak for bringing this to light, however I refuse to stay silent... Shame on anyone trying to ruin this beautiful event."

[MenchOsint @MenchOsint]

⭕️⚡️UKMTO admits that an Oil Tanker *escorted by the US* was struck last night (22h00 UTC).

It is an Oil Tanker that switched AIS off and ignored IRGC-approved routes.

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

🛢️The oil market now has a deadline: end of July

3 buffers have kept crude under $100 through the worst supply disruption in history.

ING says all 3 run out at roughly the same time.

Regular readers will recognize every one of them.

1️⃣China

China's buyer strike imports at the lowest since 2017, refinery runs slashed, drivers switching to EVs rather than pay war prices.
But Beijing started tapping its strategic reserves last month. The strike is now running on stored barrels.
Stocks, not flows. The clock is visible.

2️⃣ US exports

US crude exports are running 1.8M bpd above last year record highs.
The catch, per ING: those exports come from INVENTORY, not new production. Cushing is near operational lows.
Watch for the political risk nobody prices: a US export intervention if domestic tightness bites.

3️⃣the SPR

The US strategic release ends by late July with the reserve already at 1983 levels.
After that, no government cushion, peak summer demand, and a market ING says is in deficit all quarter.
Three buffers, one expiry date.

ING's path: Brent averages $110 in Q3, spiking $120–130 if Hormuz stays shut past July.

And one detail that should stop you cold: ING floats buyers eventually paying IRAN tolls for safe passage.
From blockade to toll booth that's how chokepoints monetize.

None of this is new to this feed: the buyer strike, the export drain, the SPR clock I covered each as it built.

What's new is convergence.

August oil will be decided by whoever blinks first: Tehran, Washington, or Beijing's inventory managers.

My latest analysis on oil prices is in the below comments👇

[🚮 @wetshard]

@sedasurc @marketlens_app @binance Do you know how to read a fucking orderbook lmfao

[Hunter Biden @HunterBiden]

To everyone so eager to cancel someone for a tattoo they got at age 22, a drunk text, a selfie they took in the middle of a mental health crisis:

Show us your laptop.
Show us your iCloud.
Open your entire digital life to your worst enemy. No context. No filter. No explanation.

You won’t.

You won’t because you know what I know. Any one of us, frozen at our worst moment, photographed in our lowest hour, looks like a monster. Looks like a stranger. Looks like someone who deserves to be cast out.

That is not who we are.

My mom and baby sister were killed in a car accident when I was just a kid. Cancer took my brother Beau, my best friend and my rock. I battled alcoholism. I battled addiction. I chose the coward’s way out more times than I can count.

For years I believed the defining chapters of my life were written by tragedy, loss, and shame.

I no longer believe that.

Pain can shape us. Loss can humble us. Failures can leave scars that never fully fade. But none of them have the authority to define us.

And it sure as hell ain’t the critic that counts.

That authority belongs to us alone-the person in the arena.

Every setback presents a choice. Play the victim, or cut the bullshit and take ownership for who we become next.

Life does not determine our character. It reveals it.

Again and again we are asked the same question. When shit happens, what next?

We are not defined by what happened to us. We are not defined by the worst photo, the worst text, the worst tattoo, the worst night. We are defined by the person we choose to become. And by the courage to choose that person, every single day.

So before you reach for the gavel - show us your laptop.

You won’t.

The whole world saw mine. And I am still here. Still becoming. Still choosing. Still standing.

That is the only definition that matters.

[The Rollup @therollupco]

David Schamis on the deal that changed the HYPE thesis and why the market still hasn't fully priced it:

"Hyperliquid asked for a cut. Circle said no. Hyperliquid built its own stablecoin. Got to $100M. Landed the 90/10 deal anyway."

"$175-200M/year to the bottom line. Material, not marginal. Circle Coinbase did not want to lose those reserves."

"HYPE took a day to react. NVIDIA revenue up 20%? Instant. Crypto markets aren't there yet. That's the opportunity. You haven't missed it."

[🚮 @wetshard]

Idk

[Acyn @Acyn]

Pape: We're about to enter the period of maximum leverage for Iran. When we hit the oil inventory cliff, as we're going to do in the middle of July, end of July, that means when our inventories go down, Iran's leverage goes up and will stay up through the midterms. 

So that is why there's no chance, very little chance Iran is going to cut a deal right now. Why would it cut a deal when its leverage is about to grow? Everybody knows it's going to grow. 
President Trump can talk down oil prices only for so long. Once that oil inventory dries up here at the end of first week of August, as all the world's experts, the actual experts are predicting…

[tmuxvim @tmuxvim]

ok that is diabolical

[Faytuks Network @FaytuksNetwork]

Iranian source close to the negotiating team tells Fars that Iran has not approved any text for an initial memorandum of understanding with the U.S.

The denial comes after Trump claimed Iran had agreed “at the highest level” to such a text, and later said the document had been finalized.